Falcons vs Vikings: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

• Since 2014 under Mike Zimmer, the Vikings are 28-13-1 (68.3 percent) against the spread at home, second to only New England (69.6 percent) over that span.
• The Falcons are 1-7 against the spread over their past eight games as road underdogs.
• The Vikings (80 percent) and Falcons (71.5 percent) ranked first and third in the league in percentage of touchdowns scored from inside the 10-yard line to stem from passing in 2018. 
• With 104.8 receiving yards per game in 2018, Julio Jones has now averaged over 100 yards receiving per game in five different seasons, the most in NFL history.
• In three games against the Vikings under Zimmer, Jones has caught just 13-of-21 targets for 162 yards and zero touchdowns. He has finished as the WR27, WR40, and WR70 in weekly scoring in those games.
• In those three games, Matt Ryan has finished as the QB14, QB29, and QB30, averaging 233.8 passing yards per game with four total touchdown passes and four interceptions.
• The Falcons have allowed the most receptions to opposing running backs in each of the four seasons Dan Quinn has been the head coach.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Dalvin Cook: Over the final five weeks of 2018, Cook played 78 percent of the offensive snaps and was the RB7 over that span, averaging 104 total yards on 17.8 touches per game. Entering 2019 healthy, Cook draws a game as a home favorite against a defense that consistently allows high floors through receiving output. With the Vikings change in offensive philosophy and running more sets with just two receivers, look for Cook to be a heavy component in this offense that will funnel touches to just their core offensive skill players.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Kirk Cousins: Cousins’s 7.1 yards per pass attempt in 2018 were his lowest as a starter and his 7.9 average depth of target was the lowest of his career. There’s some concern about the Vikings reigning in his pass attempts in a game they are favored, but there’s shootout potential in the range of outcomes for this game as well. The Falcons aren’t scary defensively, having ranked 27th, 16th and 31st in passing points allowed to opposing quarterbacks over the past three seasons.  
• Adam Thielen: In 2018, Thielen played a Jekyll & Hyde act for fantasy purposes. He struggled over the back half of the season as the Vikings’ offense shifted their identity, posting just one top-20 scoring week over his final eight games. This season, Thielen is moving to a near full-time role as a perimeter receiver. He ran just 1-of-12 preseason routes from the slot after running 54.5 percent of this routes from the slot over the past two seasons. It remains to be seen if that impacts his fantasy bottom line, but the Vikings’ target tree only has a few branches and Diggs is already dealing with an injury. 
• Devonta Freeman: Entering the season healthy and with the least amount of backfield competition he’s had since his 2015 breakout. His volume and potential increased activity in the passing game keeps him in play as a floor-RB2 option, but a road dog back facing a defense that has ranked 11th, third, and seventh in rushing points allowed could cap his ceiling. 
• Julio Jones: Jones has a rough history versus this secondary and peak Xavier Rhodes, but Rhodes may not be the player he was when these two last squared off. Rhodes was Pro Football Focus’s 108th graded coverage corner in 2018 and allowed a 118.8 rating in his coverage this preseason on just 57 snaps. This will be a strong test out of the box in diagnosing where Rhodes is at to start the season. Not loving Ryan and the fact that the Vikings still don’t surrender many passing scores keeps things in check, however. 
• Calvin Ridley: He’ll likely draw Trae Waynes for most of his afternoon and is still firmly in play as a WR3 option despite no Vikings corner allowing more than two touchdown receptions in 2018.
• Austin Hooper: He had 10 games last season in which he was the TE16 or lower. He’s posted just 10.7 and 9.3 yards per receptions over the past two seasons with seven total touchdowns. There’s not much ceiling here, but the pros for Hooper remaining a low-level TE1 are that he was second on the team in red zone targets in 2018 with 15 and the Vikings ranked 30th overall in the league a year ago in DVOA versus the tight end position.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Matt Ryan: He has the weapons to have a big game against anyone, but he is on the road against a Vikings team that has had his number under Zimmer. Minnesota has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the league in each of the past two seasons.
• Stefon Diggs: Already dealing with a hamstring issue, Diggs is officially questionable for Sunday. He did practice on both Thursday and Friday, which is positive, but Diggs has a long-running history of under performing while on the injury report. In his seven career games listed a questionable, Diggs has has finished as the WR26 or lower each time. In 2018, he was the WR42 and WR32 while playing through an injury that had him on the injury report. Bump expectations down to lower-end WR2.
• Kyle Rudolph: The Falcons have been a middle of the pack team defensively covering tight ends under Quinn, but with Rudolph, you’re only playing him in the hopes of hitting a touchdown. Rudolph was fourth for all tight ends in routes run per game last season, but his team target share (13.5 percent) was his lowest over his past four full seasons while he ranked 36th in target rate per route run at 14.2 percent. He needs to be more steadily involved to climb up from TE2 status. Expect the Vikings to use more two-tight end sets this season with rookie Irv Smith seeing the field to cut into Rudolph’s slice of the offense.