49ers vs Buccaneers: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon game on September 6, 2019 at 4:25 pm ET.

 

  • The 49ers have lost 12 consecutive games in the Eastern Time Zone by an average point differential of minus-15.5.
  • Tampa Bay allowed 22.2 points per game at home in 2018 (19th), opposed to 35.8 points per game on the road (32nd).
  • The Buccaneers ranked 32nd in turnover rate per drive (19.7%) while San Francisco ranked 31st (17.7%).
  • Tampa Bay ranked 31st in passing points allowed per pass attempt (.549) while San Francisco ranked 30th (.543).
  • George Kittle ranked 15th among all tight ends and wide receivers in expected fantasy output in the red zone (42.2 points), yet he ranked 42nd in actual output (27.7 points). 
  • Kittle’s 873 yards after the catch last season were the highest recorded by a tight end in a single season.
  • With 1,524 yards in 2018. Mike Evans became just the third player in league history to post over 1,000 yards receiving in each of his first five NFL seasons, joining Randy Moss and A.J. Green
  • Evans posted career-highs in catch rate (62.3%) and yards per reception (17.7) in 2018.
  • The Buccaneers allowed 73.4% of the targets to opposing wide receivers be completed, the highest rate over the past decade.

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Jameis Winston: Winston was the QB8 in this matchup a year ago, completing 76% of his passes for 312 yards. San Francisco invested in Dee Ford and Nick Bosa this offseason to help the defense, but both battled injuries throughout the preseason and neither found the field. This game has trap potential, but the Bucs are the better bet to hold up their end of things.
  • Chris Godwin: He played 100% of the team snaps with Winston this preseason and will be playing the “big slot” role that elevated players such as Hines Ward and Larry Fitzgerald in the Bruce Arians offense. Godwin ran 67% of his routes this preseason from inside, where he’ll draw either K’Waun Williams — who allowed a 109.9 passer rating in the slot last season — or Jimmie Ward if Williams is unable to go.
  • O.J. Howard: Howard played 95% of the snaps with Winston and the first team this preseason. He’s yet to top 80% of the team snaps in a game for his career while he carries big-play upside in an expanded role. 18.3% of Howard’s career receptions so far have gone for touchdowns, the highest rate for active tight ends with more than 50 receptions.
  • George Kittle: The most bankable member on this offense. Tampa Bay ranked 26th in receptions allowed (5.3) and yardage allowed (66.3) to opposing tight ends a year ago. Kittle only managed six catches for 48 yards in the meeting between these teams a year ago, but did see a healthy 12 targets in that game. Look for that volume to hold more weight over the results this time around. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Mike Evans: He’s only slightly downgraded here because he’s dealt with a quad injury this preseason. Those soft tissue injuries in the preseason are something to monitor, but it is not expected to be a long-term issue. Evans has been on the field twice with Richard Sherman for his career, catching 6 passes for 116 yards in this matchup a year ago while positing a 8-73-2 line when they played each other in 2016. 
  • 49ers RBs: Tevin Coleman played 62 percent of the first-team snaps this preseason with Garoppolo under center while Matt Breida played 38 percent. Coleman is the best bet for receptions and goal line opportunities, making him a lower-end RB2 option while Breida still has potential to carry upside as a FLEX option.
  • Marquise Goodwin: Goodwin is the lone 49ers receiver we can have any true expectations for in Week 1 with Dante Pettis struggling through motivational tactics and then dealing with a groin injury. Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne could both see roles in this game alongside Goodwin if Pettis isn’t right physically. Goodwin played on all of Garoppolo’s snaps in the Week 3 dress rehearsal. The Bucs ranked 27th in receptions allowed per game to opposing wide receivers at 13.8 despite ranking 13th in targets faced per game (18.7). Pettis himself is more of a WR4 and a DFS tournament dart in a game that will popular to stack.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Jimmy Garoppolo: A mixed bag this summer as he returns from an ACL injury that sidelined him for the final 13 games in 2018. The late afternoon start time should help the 49ers out and the Buccaneers still have a wealth of defensive question marks after allowing 18.2 passing points per game in 2018 (31st). That said, we have Garoppolo on the road and with a number of question marks surrounding his skill players outside of Kittle. He’s in the streaming mix with a good objective matchup, but one that still requires a step of faith. 
  • Buccaneers RBs: We always look towards backfields attached to home favorites — especially ones with high team totals — but the Buccaneers’ group leaves a lot to be desired. Peyton Barber was 12th for all backs in touches (254), but 42nd in fantasy points per game at the position. Still, he managed an RB20 scoring week in this matchup a year ago. Dare Ogunbowale has a leg up on Ronald Jones for ancillary opportunities and passing-game work, giving him low-level FLEX appeal.
  • Breshad Perriman: He’s not a weekly starter in seasonal leagues, but there’s deep potential here in a similar mold to how Rashard Higgins is being treated in Week 1. Perriman has the third wideout spot locked up against a 49ers defense that was 25th in points allowed to opposing wideouts in 2018 and 24th in yards per target.
More Week 1 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet :
GB at CHI | KC at JAX | ATL at MIN | TEN at CLE | BUF at NYJ | BAL at MIA | WAS at PHI | LAR at CAR | IND at LAC | CIN at SEA | SF at TB | DET at ARI | NYG at DAL | PIT at NE | HOU at NO |

 

 

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