As part of our 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit, let's take a look at quarterback ADP using a historical lens to identify any trends that can help in 2026 fantasy football drafts.
Every year, we have nearly eight full months to prepare for the draft, but just how good are we at setting the market for the season?
That is the goal we are out to hash out to carve out some signals.
Be sure to check out my quarterback rankings and tiers for more player-specific analysis:
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Quarterback Fantasy Football ADP: Historical Data
Looking at average draft position since 2010, the relationship between quarterback cost and points per game has a weak correlation.
Top-24 QB in ADP & Correlation to PPR Points Per Game Since 2010
| Year | Top 24 | Top 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.1663 | 0.1365 |
| 2024 | 0.1741 | 0.2865 |
| 2023 | 0.1965 | 0.3021 |
| 2022 | 0.3863 | 0.5055 |
| 2021 | 0.5826 | 0.5616 |
| 2020 | 0.4995 | 0.5221 |
| 2019 | 0.3002 | 0.2538 |
| 2018 | 0.2279 | 0.3063 |
| 2017 | 0.3001 | 0.2641 |
| 2016 | 0.3591 | 0.2011 |
| 2015 | 0.3007 | 0.2671 |
| 2014 | 0.2381 | 0.3681 |
| 2013 | 0.3381 | 0.2622 |
| 2012 | 0.4958 | 0.4212 |
| 2011 | 0.2005 | 0.1679 |
| 2010 | 0.1914 | 0.2806 |
Gamers thought they had cracked the code after a scorching run of drafting quarterbacks successfully from 2020 to 2022, but things have fallen off dramatically since.
Last season, quarterbacks had the lowest correlation between draft and position for both the top-12 and top-24 picks across the entire sample.
Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, and Jared Goff were the only quarterbacks selected as top-12 players who were also top 12 in points per game.
Prescott and Goff were the only top-12 quarterbacks who finished higher in overall points scored at the position than their ADP within the position (Allen washed at QB1 overall).
Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, and Kyler Murray all were selected as top-12 players at the position and finished double-digit slots behind expectations in terms of points per game.
Passing volume is down while passing efficiency is up, which has helped level the field.
2025 also had several injuries up top.
That per-game output accounts for the majority of their missed time because it was a major factor in the top-down failure at the position last season.
QB1 selections in 2025 combined to miss 47 starts, the most since the league expanded the season.
Since the NFL expanded the season to 17 games per team, here are the missed starts, the number of top-12 quarterback selections who made double-digit starts, and those who started 15 or more games.
| Year | Games Missed | 15+ Games | 10+ Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 47 | 6 | 8 |
| 2024 | 22 | 10 | 11 |
| 2023 | 45 | 7 | 10 |
| 2022 | 30 | 8 | 11 |
| 2021 | 15 | 9 | 12 |
QB1 picks ended up making 25 fewer collective starts than they did in 2024.
After 11 of the top-12 picks in 2024 started double-digit games, only eight made that many starts last season.
Only six of the top-12 quarterbacks made 15 or more starts, with Allen, Mayfield, Bo Nix, Prescott, and Goff the only ones who started every game.
In terms of overall scoring output, Jackson (13 games), Daniels (7 games), and Burrow (8 games) were all top-five picks at the position.
Due to all missing so much action, they all finished 20th or lower in points scored for the season.
Murray (5 games) also missed most of the season while Purdy (9 games) missed nearly half of the year.
We can account for the position having more health-related fortune in 2026, but that missed time comes with the increased opportunity cost of taking high-end players at the position.
Right at that cutoff, Justin Fields was QB13 in ADP but finished the year QB28 in total points and QB20 in points per game.
The back end of the QB2 field also dragged things down.
Jordan Love (QB17 in ADP), C.J. Stroud (QB18), J.J. McCarthy (QB19), Tua Tagovailoa (QB21), and Cam Ward (QB22) all were worse performers per game within the position than their ADP.
Four of the top-five scorers overall last season were selected outside of the top 10.
Only four quarterbacks last season bested their overall scoring ranking compared to ADP by more than five spots: Matthew Stafford (QB23 in ADP and QB3 in overall scoring output), Trevor Lawrence (QB20 in ADP), Drake Maye (QB16), and Caleb Williams (QB15).
The only other top-24 picks to match their ADP in overall finish were Prescott, Justin Herbert, Goff, Nix, Love, and Allen.
Of the top-10 scorers overall in 2025, only Allen, Nix, and Jalen Hurts were selected as top-10 picks.
Percentage of High Scoring Weekly Games by Top-12 QB in ADP
| Year | Top 12 | Top 6 | Top 3 | QB1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 35.6% | 37.9% | 40.7% | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 43.1% | 52.8% | 55.6% | 66.7% |
| 2023 | 39.4% | 51.9% | 55.6% | 66.7% |
| 2022 | 44.4% | 53.7% | 64.8% | 72.2% |
| 2021 | 52.1% | 64.8% | 79.6% | 88.9% |
| 2020 | 50.5% | 58.8% | 70.6% | 75.0% |
| 2019 | 37.3% | 39.2% | 45.1% | 52.9% |
| 2018 | 41.2% | 40.2% | 47.1% | 41.2% |
| 2017 | 34.3% | 36.3% | 35.3% | 41.2% |
| 2016 | 43.1% | 51.0% | 62.7% | 64.7% |
| 2015 | 39.2% | 45.1% | 60.8% | 70.6% |
| 2014 | 43.6% | 51.0% | 60.8% | 52.9% |
Players selected as QB1 options in ADP accounted for only 35.6% of the QB1 scoring weeks on the season.
That was the lowest rate for QB1 picks since 2017.
QB1 picks posted 37.9% of the top-six scoring weeks and 40.7% of the top-three scoring weeks at the position.
Those were also the lowest levels in a year since 2017.
Those picks made up nine of the 18 top scorers in an individual week, the lowest rate since 2018.
Allen led the league with three weeks as the highest scorer overall, with Williams, Mahomes, and Lawrence as the other players with multiple weeks leading the way in scoring.
The QB1 Rarely Busts
While 2025 was a down year for picking front-end quarterbacks in bulk, it was the first time since 2011 that the QB1 in ADP also closed the season as the QB1 in overall scoring.
While that may seem disparaging on the surface, remember the context and expectations that accompany that draft selection.
Those QB1 players have not completely matched and shattered those expectations, but they also have rarely bricked.
Outside of 2QB/Superflex formats, QB1 overall has rarely set you back in the context of the position.
QB Tiers, Rate of Players Matching/Exceeding Draft Position & High-Scoring Rates
| QB ADP | Match+ | QB1% | Top 6% | Top 3% | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 3 | 22.9% | 85.4% | 60.5% | 35.4% | 20.3 |
| QB4-6 | 27.1% | 54.2% | 31.3% | 20.9% | 18.3 |
| QB7-9 | 39.6% | 50.0% | 22.9% | 14.6% | 17.1 |
| QB10-12 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 22.9% | 6.3% | 15.8 |
| QB13-18 | 32.3% | 39.6% | 16.7% | 7.3% | 15.6 |
| QB19-24 | 54.2% | 22.9% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 14.7 |
There are arbitrary cutoffs here, but splitting up our ADP pie into front-end quarterbacks (top 3 in ADP), the secondary tier (QB4-QB6 in ADP), back-half QB1 options (QB7-QB9 and QB9-QB12), front-half QB2 (QB13-QB18), and back-half QB2 (QB19-QB24), we can further dissect the hit rates at the position and illuminate how the front of the position has carried more weight.
This also highlights the concept of “area drafting,” which can present the right pocket of the position to be in, or prevent you from unnecessarily forcing a position you deem necessary in drafts.
The top-six quarterbacks have a lower rate of matching their draft cost due to a tighter margin of error, but you can also see the rate at which players from those tiers deliver high-floor, high-ceiling seasons.
85.4% of all quarterbacks selected in the top three of their position have delivered a top-12 campaign, while 60% of that group have produced a top-six scoring season.
Over a third of those picks have delivered a top-three overall scoring finish.
Last season, Allen held up his end of the bargain.
Unfortunately, Daniels and Jackson were among the biggest misses at this price point.
Daniels and Jackson are two of only five quarterbacks since 2010 who were selected in the top three at the position and then finished 20 or more spots below that cost.
I do buy that injuries limited those players' ability to have a stable floor given their archetypes.
Daniels was one of just four quarterbacks since 2010 to be selected in the top three who then played fewer than 10 games.
If you are still hunting for the QB1 overall, those picks come from the top.
Since 2010, 11 of the 15 QB1 overall scorers have been top-five picks at the position in preseason.
Only two of those 15 players were selected as QB2 or later picks.
The lowest QB1 overall pick over that span was Mahomes in 2018 as QB16 in ADP.
That is why, if you are in a league that requires you to start multiple quarterbacks, you should still be aggressive in pursuing the position based on historic trends for players who do not miss so much time.
You can run into value when waiting at the position in those formats, but it is much harder to land a front-end scoring season the further you move on.
You can see above that there is a bit of a firewall at the position once you clear the top half of the QB1 group and diminishing returns as you move down the line.
The largest trap area has been the bucket right after the front-end options, but there is a consistent decline in the hit rate of elite seasons based on draft capital.
While the QB4-QB6 group has had higher bust rates, it has still provided a high rate of top-six and top-three scoring seasons.
What is intriguing here is how the lower-end QB1 and front half of the QB2 options blend from a points-per-game standpoint, paired with tighter rates of top-12, top-six, and top-three seasons.
Once the elite options are gone from the player pool, this is where you see gamers often start to roster fill.
They force the position, even though the rates at which that subset of options can produce truly difference-making seasons plummet, and points per game tighten up.
Back-end QB1 options still have a historical edge in success rates over the front half of QB2 plays, but you will have to question the squeeze versus continuing to wait.
I am going to lay out the approach of drafting quarterbacks with specifics next week.
But given the runouts over the past three seasons, it is hard to justify spending heavily on quarterbacks in 1QB formats.
I do not believe we will have as poor an outcome as last year without severe injuries, but because the front of the position was so poor last year, it opened up the field to degrees we typically do not see.
As a byproduct, there were some massive late-round hits in Stafford and Lawrence.
Both were among just 12 players since 2010 who finished as top-six scorers at the position but were selected at QB20 or later.
Stafford was just the second player since 2010 to get picked as QB20 or later and deliver a top-three scoring season, joining 2011 Cam Newton.
I do not want to make it a habit of chasing players such as Stafford, especially since there are not many players in his position of ADP this summer that are drawing live to lead the league in passing touchdowns.
Jordan Love is the best bet under that umbrella if looking to run it back this season.
Love is currently QB19 in ADP and is 12th in current odds to lead the league in passing touchdowns.
Draft Young Quarterbacks
When extending things out to quarterbacks who have not had their ADP as a QB1, but were hits, tracking a young quarterback who can chip in with the run has been advantageous.
Fantasy gamers are notorious for needing to see something first before paying a premium sticker price, but if you want to hunt for values, a tried-and-true way to find players to crush ADP is drafting young players.
Since 2010, we have had 72 different QB1 scoring seasons from quarterbacks who did not have an ADP as a QB1.
44.5% of those came from players on their rookie contracts.
38.9% of those came from players in their first three seasons in the league.
30.6% have come from Year 1 or 2 players.
You have to go back to 2014 to find a season that did not have a Year 1 or 2 player who was a QB1 scorer but was selected in fantasy drafts later than that.
Last year, we had Maye and Williams as big hits.
Year 2 players in general have been strong bets to make.
Since 2010, there have been 39 Year 2 quarterbacks with an ADP in the QB13 to QB30 range.
24 of them (61.5%) have bested their positional ADP while 33.3% have finished as QB1 scorers.
This year, Cam Ward and Tyler Shough are passers we are expecting to be full-season starters in Year 2 and are being selected as QB2 options.
Extending that out, Nix is in Year 3.
Draft Running Quarterbacks
The other thing all of those players do is contribute with their legs.
Maye added 4.1 rushing points per game while Williams tacked on 3.3 points per game via his legs.
Maye ran the ball 6.1 times per game while Williams was at 4.5 rushes per game.
Since 2010, there have been 29 players selected as QB2 picks who ended up as top-six scorers that season.
Those players averaged 4.1 rushing attempts per game.
Only four of those 29 ran the ball fewer than 2.0 times per game.
It is unlikely that we will make a habit of running into the passing-touchdown leader late in drafts, but we can accurately gauge which guys add mobility to the table at depressed costs.
This year, Nix, Murray, Shough, and Malik Willis are players who come with added mobility at QB2 pricing.
If any of those guys can add a spike in passing output to their rushing acumen, they can break through as higher-end QB1 picks.
Mayfield does not have elite rushing upside, but he is a standout pick as a QB2 when you pair everything together.
Mayfield has at least 25 passing touchdowns in three straight seasons while running the ball at least 3.2 times per game in all three of those years.
What to Know:
- 2025 was another down year for setting the market at the quarterback position overall.
- Injuries played a large role in the overall decline, but passing volume being down across the league paired with passing efficiency rising has leveled the field more at quarterback in recent years.
- You do not have to be the first gamer to pick a quarterback in your league, but front-end scorers are historically a good bet to be attached to front-end ADP.
- With that in mind, be aggressive with the front tier at the position in 2QB/Superflex formats.
- If you do miss out on the front end of the position, sit on your hands. Do not force the issue, especially on a player who does not offer mobility.
- Draft young players when value-hunting QB2 options. Rookie-contract players and players one to two years into the league have the highest-value breakouts.
- Target runners in the QB2 range.
