2026 NFL Team Futures: Best Bets
- Denver Broncos to win the AFC West (+225)
- Jacksonville Jaguars Over 3.5 Division Wins (+140)
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Best 2026 Team Futures Bet: Denver Broncos To Win The AFC West
The Denver Broncos not only won the AFC West last year, but they were also the AFC’s No. 1 seed after going 14-3.
Now, they’re priced behind the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers to win the division this year.
There are valid reasons to believe the Broncos could take a step back.
First, Denver won an NFL-high 11 one-score games and lost only two last season, resulting in an .846 winning percentage in one-score games, the best in the NFL.
Regression is almost certain in one-score games.
They went only 1-6 in one-score games in 2024.
As another recent example, the Chiefs were an NFL-best 11-0 in one-score games in 2024 before falling to 1-9 in 2025.
The Broncos should finish with much closer to a .500 record in one-score games in 2026, even if the pendulum doesn’t swing as extremely as it did for the Chiefs from 2024 to 2025.
The Broncos were third in the percentage of one-score wins as a total of their wins in 2025 at 78.6%.
Of course, regression in one-score games would hurt much less if the Broncos played in fewer than 13 of them.
There were 288 one-score games in 2025, which amounts to an average of nine per team.
Denver also routinely dug itself holes in 2025.
They trailed in 15 games last year, and, as Warren Sharp pointed out in this year’s Sharp Football Preview, no team that has won even 11 games ever trailed in 15 games that season, let alone winning 14 as the 2025 Broncos did.
They were a remarkable 12-3 in those 15 contests.
They can’t continue to live that way if they want to repeat as the AFC West champions, but they trailed in fewer games (13) in 2024 than in 2025.
As with regression in one-score games, it will hurt less for their record in games they trail in 2026 if they trail in fewer games.
Another step forward from Bo Nix could help them win by larger margins and trail less often this year.
As a rookie in 2024, Nix was tied for 17th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play among 36 qualified quarterbacks before nudging up to 11th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in 2025.
The club traded for Jaylen Waddle, giving Nix a meaningful upgrade in his pass-catching corps.
Sean Payton also ceded play-calling duties to new offensive coordinator Davis Webb.
Webb has been the team’s QBs coach for the previous three years and was the passing game coordinator in 2025.
Fortunately for the Broncos, Payton remains in the mix to reprise play-calling duties if things don’t go smoothly for Webb.
The Broncos also have a top-flight defense, and Vance Joseph is still pushing the buttons as the team’s defensive coordinator.
In 2025, Denver was third in points allowed per drive (1.62), first in yards allowed per play (4.5), second in yards allowed per game (278.2), third in pressure rate, and tied for seventh in EPA allowed per play.
As good as the Broncos were on defense, they left meat on the bone.
Denver was only tied for 26th in turnovers forced last year (14).
The club lost John Franklin-Myers and P.J. Locke in free agency, but it remains a high-end defense, with our staff ranking its front seven and secondary fourth and second, respectively.
The Chiefs and Chargers have their own nits to pick, and the Broncos have most of the nucleus of last year’s AFC No. 1 seed returning and a needle-mover joining their receiving corps.
The AFC West should be highly competitive, but getting +225 odds on the defending AFC West Champion is appealing.
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| Best Receiving Unders (Coming Soon) |
Best 2026 Team Futures Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars Over 3.5 Division Wins
The Jacksonville Jaguars won the AFC South last year, and the trio of head coach Liam Coen, offensive coordinator Grant Udinski, and defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile are back in the fold.
Jacksonville handled its business in the division last year, splitting the season series against the Houston Texans and sweeping both the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts.
The Texans once again have a stacked defense and can challenge the Jaguars.
The Colts and Titans have catching up to do.
Encouragingly for Jacksonville’s 2026 outlook, Trevor Lawrence played better as last season went on.
Among 34 qualified quarterbacks from Week 1 through Week 7, Lawrence was 26th in EPA per play.
The Jaguars had their bye in Week 8.
From Week 9 through Week 18, Lawrence was fifth in EPA per play, sandwiched between Josh Allen in fourth and a tie between Jordan Love and Jared Goff for sixth.
The Jaguars also traded for Jakobi Meyers before Week 9, and Parker Washington emerged as an extremely efficient pass-catching weapon down the stretch.
There are tangible changes that help explain Lawrence’s surge in EPA, not to mention his possibly becoming more comfortable with what was a new offense to him.
If Lawrence’s improvements stick, he could be the best quarterback in the division.
Daniel Jones was the division’s highest-ranked quarterback in EPA per play last year, ranking sixth among qualified quarterbacks, followed by C.J. Stroud in a tie for 12th.
Jones is returning from a torn right Achilles tendon suffered in early December after playing at a previously unseen level of high-quality play, and Stroud ended the year on a sour note by playing dreadfully in the playoffs.
As for Cam Ward, he was dead last in EPA per play among 33 qualified quarterbacks last season.
Beyond continuity on the coaching staff and quarterback play, the defense is also coming off an above-average season.
Jacksonville was tied for eighth in yards allowed per play (5.0), fifth in points allowed per drive (1.74), fifth in explosive play rate allowed, 19th in pressure rate, tied for 29th in sack rate, and second in turnovers forced (31).
The Jaguars will likely regress in turnovers forced, but they can also log more sacks if more of their pressures are converted to sacks, even if their pressure rate doesn’t improve.
Circling back to offense and taking a larger view than at the quarterback, they were an above-average group.
The Jaguars were ninth in points per drive (2.35), sixth in points per game (27.9), 12th in success rate (42.3%), and tied for 14th in EPA per play.
Jacksonville has the coaching staff and personnel in place to be an above-average team and a contender to win the division again this year, and the lookahead lines are favorable for backing Jacksonville to go over 3.5 wins in the AFC South.
The Jaguars are favored against the Texans in London in Week 6, the Colts in Jacksonville in Week 8, the Titans in Tennessee in Week 10, and the Titans in Jacksonville in Week 12.
Moreover, the Jaguars have a seven-day rest advantage against the Colts in Week 8, coming off their Week 7 bye, and a 4-day rest disadvantage against the Titans in Week 10.
Jacksonville is an underdog in Week 15 in Houston and in Week 18 in Indianapolis. They have a 1-day rest disadvantage against the Texans in Week 18.
Ultimately, if the Jaguars win all of their divisional games they’re favored in, they’d go over the 3.5 wins line.
It’s also encouraging that one of the games they’re underdogs in is in Week 18, as motivation is all over the map in the final week of the regular season.
Even if the Jaguars failed to split with the Texans, they could go over the line by sweeping the Titans and Colts again, and splitting with Houston would give them wiggle room to drop one of the contests against their other two AFC South foes.
