Falcons vs. Saints Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 4

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Falcons vs. Saints Week 4 matchup on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Falcons vs. Saints Fantasy Quarterback Preview

Tyler Shough

Shough is only one of two quarterbacks (the other being Brock Purdy) to finish top-10 in scoring all three weeks this season.

He has scored over 20 fantasy points every week.

Nobody is getting volume like Shough.

He leads the NFL in dropbacks (48.7 per game), and as a byproduct, attempts and completions.

There is some “create your own volume” aspect here, reminiscent of Blake Bortles.

He has 3 interceptions and 5 fumbles.

Not that I believe Shough is on the Bortles trajectory, just that the Saints are playing in some of these game conditions because of ball-security issues.

As fantasy gamers, we are embracing it with Shough as a QB1.

I think he can get a lot of volume again this week.

Teams against the Falcons have thrown the ball 13.6% over pass-rate expectations, the highest in the league.

The Steelers (+12%), Panthers (+13%), and Packers (+15.9%) were all pass-heavy against the Falcons.

The Saints have thrown the ball 4.6% over expectations, eighth in the league.

Atlanta has been a surprise in the pass rush department, given their losses this offseason.

The Falcons lead the NFL in pressure rate (44.2%).

That is not solely due to facing Green Bay, either.

The Falcons were 11th and 6th in pressure rate in Weeks 1 and 2.

The Saints are still without their starting left tackle, too.

Asim Richards allowed a team-high 6 pressures and a sack on Sunday while playing left tackle.

When Shough has been pressured, he has completed 52.8% of his passes, which is eighth in the league.

His 7.3 yards per attempt when pressured ranks ninth.

But he also has a 5.6% interception rate (29th) and a 21.7% sack rate (26th) when pressured, which has made so many of these games this season a back-and-forth flow state.

Michael Penix

Penix returned to the lineup last week for the first time since suffering his third ACL injury last November.

The rust showed early, as he went 2 for 7 for 22 yards and threw an interception in the first quarter.

Then he settled in.

Penix completed 16 of 18 (88.9%) throws the rest of the way for 234 yards (13.0 Y/A) with a touchdown, taking zero sacks.

Penix finished as the QB21 (14.0 points) this week because the run game went bonkers and it was a high-scoring week for the league, but it was a strong start and an immediate turnaround for the NFL's worst offense over the first two weeks of the season.

We talked about this last week, but Penix's return wasn't so much about getting him back as a strong fantasy play as much as it was about saving the primary stars in this offense from the depths of fantasy hell.

Penix does have a case as an upside QB2 this week, though.

These New Orleans games have turned into fun fantasy games.

The Saints are 24th in passing points allowed (16.5 per game).

They are only allowing 6.7 yards per pass attempt (10th), but they have allowed a 66.9% completion rate (24th) and a 5.8% touchdown rate (25th).

Falcons vs. Saints Fantasy Running Back Preview

Bijan Robinson (TRUST)

Robinson was electric on Thursday night in Green Bay, racking up 213 total yards and 2 touchdowns on 31 touches.

That was enough to push him ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs for the league lead in yards from scrimmage (467) early on this season.

That battle will be fun all season long.

Robinson has another great spot.

Gibbs had 186 total yards and 2 touchdowns against this defense.

59.1% of Robinson's rushing attempts have come on outside zone runs (4th highest in the league).

The Saints have faced 33 outside zone runs so far by running backs (7th most).

They have allowed 5.0 yards per carry on those runs (25th) and are last in the league in success rate (45.5%) defending those.

New Orleans is also 17th in receiving points allowed to backs early this season, and Robinson has been targeted on 35.6% of his routes.

Saints RBs

The Saints will be rotating their backfield on Monday after losing Travis Etienne to a hamstring injury.

With Etienne off the field in Week 3, Alvin Kamara played 46.7% of those snaps, handling 10 touches for 41 yards.

He ran a route on 38.7% of the dropbacks on those plays.

Kendre Miller played 31.1% of those snaps, turning 6 touches into 19 yards.

CJ Donaldson had 1 touch for 5 yards, and it was the only backfield touch inside the 10-yard line.

Miller had goal-line work in Week 1 and converted, so I believe that will be fluid.

If you split the backfield between Kamara and Miller, both are touchdown-dependent RB3/FLEX options.

Kamara has a bit more floor in full-PPR formats.

We touched on how teams have been pass-heavy against Atlanta in all three games so far.

Against the run, they have allowed 3.1 YPC to backs (4th) and 0.85 yards before contact per rush (7th).

They have faced the Steelers, Panthers, and Packers if you need to apply any grains of salt, but how does this backfield compare to those units?

Falcons vs. Saints Fantasy Wide Receiver Preview

Chris Olave (TRUST)

Olave has double-digit targets in every game, leading to lines of 10-182-0, 8-86-1, and 9-107-0.

He has run 132 routes (2nd only to his teammate Devaughn Vele) but has seen 29% of the targets (WR5) and 47.7% of the air yards (WR4).

He has play volume and front-end usage on his side, which has made him a front-end WR1 for fantasy.

He is second in expected points among receivers, behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

We already covered the expected pass rate here, but there is added matchup appeal.

The Falcons do not have A.J. Terrell.

Over the past two weeks without Terrell, the Falcons have allowed Tetairoa McMillan (5-101-0) and Christian Watson (7-96-1) to have big games, while Matthew Golden (5-100-1) and Jalen Coker (8-66-0) added on.

They are also fourth in the NFL in single-high coverage rate (64.7%).

Against single-high, Olave is averaging 2.79 yards per route.

Drake London (TRUST)

Welcome back, Michael Penix.

London caught 9 of 10 targets for 194 yards on Thursday night.

With Penix back, London was targeted on 40% of his routes after 20% in Week 1 and 23.8% in Week 2.

On 410 career routes with Penix, London has now received 35.7% of the team's targets with a robust 3.27 yards per route run.

For context, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 35.4% of Seattle's targets for 3.59 yards per route since the start of last season.

In his past seven games with Penix, London has 194, 119, 104, 118, 42, 158, and 110 yards receiving.

The Saints have had their hands full with leading targets this season.

In Week 1, they allowed 10 catches for 67 yards and 2 touchdowns to Amon-Ra St. Brown.

In Week 2, they allowed 7 catches for 88 yards and a touchdown to Rashod Bateman with Zay Flowers inactive.

In Week 3, they allowed 10 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown to Brock Bowers.

While we are taking some liberties with Bowers here, he had 6 catches for 81 yards and his touchdown out wide.

The Saints were using Kool-Aid McKinstry on him.

Devaughn Vele

Vele has opened the season with games of 7-69-1 (9 targets), 5-64-0 (7 targets), and 3-39-0 (6 targets).

His target totals have trended down, but he is still running a ton of routes.

Vele leads the league with 137 routes run (93.8% of the team's dropbacks).

Vele is a floor-based WR4/FLEX.

We expect pass volume that can float Vele, but he also plays 46% of his snaps from the slot.

Atlanta has allowed slot receivers to catch 8 of 20 (40%) targets for 99 yards (5.0 yards per target).

Falcons vs. Saints Fantasy Tight End Preview

Juwan Johnson

Johnson grabbed all 8 of his targets for 53 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday against the Raiders.

Kellen Moore was attacking Nakobe Dean and backup safety Isaiah Pola-Mao all afternoon, because Noah Fant also caught all had a pair of touchdowns.

Johnson has only a modest 15.3% target share (TE15 on the season), but like all of the Saints, he's running more routes than most of his peers to make up for it.

Johnson has run 106 pass routes, second only to Trey McBride (108).

That lets Johnson slide into back-end TE1 range, especially with the projected pass volume here.

Atlanta has played tight ends well, allowing 6.5 yards per target (12th), but they have allowed good fantasy games to Pat Freiermuth (5-46-1) and Darren Waller (3-33-2) through touchdown equity.

Johnson does not have a larger target share overall, but he has 29.4% of red-zone targets, which is TE6 early on.

Fant only has 66 yards through three games, so he is a touchdown-or-bust swing for single-game DFS gamers.

Kyle Pitts

Catching 1 of 2 targets for 5 yards on Thursday, Pitts now has 2 catches for 20 yards (6 targets) through three games.

Pitts did not get a rise from Penix's insertion, which has been the story the past few seasons.

In games with Penix, Pitts averages 2.9 catches for 28.5 yards per game with 2 touchdowns.

He has 15.9% of the team's targets with Penix playing quarterback.

If looking to keep turning to Pitts as a TE2, he was still on the field for 76% of the dropbacks on Thursday.

He has not scored a touchdown in seven career meetings with the Saints.

New Orleans has been middle of the road against tight ends.

Removing Brock Bowers, they allowed a touchdown to Michael Mayer last week.

In Week 1, Sam LaPorta caught 5 for 48 yards, and in Week 2, Mark Andrews caught 6 for 49 yards.

More Week 4 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet: