Super Bowl 60 is just days away, when we will find out if the Seattle Seahawks or the New England Patriots will be crowned champions.
Below are three props bets for the big game, including two Seahawks players and one from the Patriots.
Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Patriots vs. Seahawks covered in our Super Bowl 60 Hub.
Best Super Bowl 60 Over/Under Prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Under 94.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
While Smith-Njigba has been phenomenal this season, catching 119 passes for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns, he’ll be up against a Patriots secondary, led by Christian Gonzalez, that could prove to give him problems.
To play devil’s advocate against my own prop bet here, yes, Smith-Njigba has a target share of 32.6% across the regular season and playoffs without Zach Charbonnet and Tory Horton on the field.
He could very well receive so many targets that volume wins out.
Smith-Njigba has finished with 95 yards or fewer in seven of 19 games, but again, he’ll have to face Gonzalez.
Across 597 coverage snaps, Gonzalez has allowed only 45 receptions on 101 targets (44.6%) for 482 yards and 1 touchdown.
The most yards he’s allowed in a single game was 67 against the Houston Texans.
Smith-Njigba mostly plays on the outside, splitting time between both sides.
Gonzalez mostly plays the right cornerback spot, but he can also play the left side, too.
Where Smith-Njigba could succeed is in the slot, where Gonzalez doesn’t play.
That said, the Patriots allow just 116.2 receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
They haven’t allowed a receiver to go for 96 yards or more since Week 10, when Emeka Egbuka went for 115 yards.
The most any receiver has had against the Patriots since then was Zay Flowers of the Baltimore Ravens with 84 yards in Week 16.
So, there are avenues for Smith-Njigba to top this number, but overall, against Gonzalez and in what I believe will be a lower-scoring game than the total shows, Smith-Njigba will finish under this line.
Best Super Bowl 60 Over/Under Prediction: Austin Hooper Over 1.5 Receptions (+194)
Scanning over the props, Hooper going over 1.5 receptions at +194 has some nice value.
He’s caught 2 passes or more in seven games this season, including in two of his last six games.
This postseason, Hooper hasn’t been utilized much, running a route on just 27.5% of Drake Maye’s dropbacks and boasting a mere 5.5% target share.
He has caught 1 of 4 targets.
However, looking out a bit further to the Patriots’ target share against Cover 3 and Cover 6 — the two coverages the Seahawks most often play — Hooper’s target share across the regular season and playoffs is up to 7.5%, catching 13 of 18 passes and running a route on 34.6% of Maye’s dropbacks.
Seattle's defense has been excellent this season, but one spot they’ve been vulnerable is against tight ends.
They’re allowing 6 receptions for 64 yards per game to the position.
The 6 receptions allowed are the sixth-most in the NFL.
Those receptions allowed could go to Patriots starting tight end Hunter Henry, but he’s only drawn a 13.7% target share during the playoffs.
So, Hooper hasn’t been used much this season, but he’s used slightly more against the coverages the Seahawks most often play.
Additionally, the Seahawks have struggled to defend tight ends this season.
At +194 and in the Super Bowl, where teams might try to draw up unique plays to get an edge, 2 receptions are possible for Hooper.
Best Super Bowl 60 Over/Under Prediction: George Holani Under 10.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Without Zach Charbonnet on the field, Kenneth Walker has handled 85.7% of the Seahawks’ running back carries, rushing 258 times for 1,211 yards.
As for Holani, he’s run 25 times for 77 yards (3.1 yards per carry) across 12 games.
Of those rushes, 20% of them have been for 0 or negative yards.
In the NFC Championship Game, as the Seahawks were putting up 31 points, Holani ran just 3 times for 4 yards.
He’s reached 10 rushing yards just two times this season.
Also, he’ll face a Patriots defense that’s surrendering 71.4 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is the second-fewest in the league.
The Patriots have allowed 55 total rushing yards or fewer to the position in each of their last four games.
Holani was much more effective in the NFC Championship as a receiver, catching 3 passes on 4 targets for 27 yards.
The Patriots have shown they have a fantastic run defense with Milton Williams in the lineup.
I expect the majority of the carries to go to Walker, with Holani taking a backseat and falling under 10 rushing yards.
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