NFL Best Prop Bets: Week 3 Picks
- Tony Pollard Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Pat Freiermuth Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Oronde Gadsden Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
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NFL Week 3 Best Prop Bet: Tony Pollard Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Week 1 is often lies, and Tennessee's play-calling could be a perfect example.
According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Titans led the league in pass rate over expected (12.2% PROE) in the season opener.
Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll was critical of his play-calling, specifically pointing out that he should have stuck with the run more.
In Week 2, the Titans were 31st in PROE (-14.6%) against the Eagles.
Pollard toted the rock 14 times for 64 yards.
Tyjae Spears had 7 carries for 41 yards, and Nicholas Singleton had 4 rush attempts for 10 yards against the Eagles in Week 2.
The three-way backfield split isn't ideal for Pollard's outlook, but the pivot to an effective, run-heavy offense is a plus.
In addition, the game's spread is slight, and a windy, rainy Nor'easter should incentivize the Titans to lean on the run as well.
Pollard's matchup is also a plus.
The Giants have coughed up 19.0 rush attempts per game, 106.0 rushing yards per game, and 5.6 yards per carry to running backs this season.
The schematic should also be favorable for Pollard, as 13 of his 21 rush attempts (61.9%) have been man/gap runs.
He's been more effective on zone runs, averaging 6.3 yards per carry on those compared to 3.8 yards per carry on man/gap runs.
However, Kyren Williams and Blake Corum combined for 14 man/gap runs for 103 yards (7.4 yards per carry) in Week 2 against Big Blue.
Finally, Pollard could consolidate more of the rushing work this week.
His practice participation trended from DNP on Wednesday to limited practices on Thursday and Friday, with no injury designation.
Spears had two DNPs and one limited session on Friday, and he's listed as questionable.
Pollard should clear 48.5 rushing yards for the second straight week.
NFL Week 3 Best Prop Bet: Pat Freiermuth Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
A familiar sight resurfaced in Week 2 after the Bengals held Tampa Bay's tight ends to 26 receiving yards on 5 targets and 3 receptions in Week 1.
Houston's tight ends thrashed the Bengals for 14 receptions and 174 receiving yards on 16 targets in Week 2.
Dalton Schultz did the bulk of the damage, securing 12 receptions on 14 targets for 140 receiving yards.
Frankly, why would a team attack DJ Turner on the perimeter when they can attack the second-year linebackers in the middle of the field instead?
Last year, the Bengals permitted NFL highs of 9.5 targets per game, 6.8 receptions per game, and 84.9 receiving yards per game to tight ends.
For Freiermuth's part, he's fourth on the Steelers in route participation rate (64.0%) in 2026, comfortably ahead of fellow tight end Darnell Washington's 29.2% route participation rate.
Freiermuth has a 12.3% target share, 18% target rate per route, 4.5 receptions per game, 39.0 receiving yards per game, and 1.37 yards per route run (Y/RR) this season.
Freiermuth logged 46 receiving yards against the Falcons in Week 1 before dipping to 32 in Week 2 against the Patriots.
He should bounce back in a soft Week 3 matchup, especially since the Steelers are underdogs and will likely need to pass to keep up.
Not that Mike McCarthy has needed his arm twisted to air it out.
The Steelers rank fifth in PROE (6.6%) this year.
NFL Week 3 Best Prop Bet: Oronde Gadsden Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Bills have traditionally been stingy against tight ends in the passing game.
From 2023 through 2025, they allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game (40.7) to the position.
However, that was playing Sean McDermott‘s defense, and Matt Milano, albeit often injured, was an asset in coverage.
The times have changed in Jim Leonhard‘s defense.
Through Week 2, the Bills have ceded the ninth-most receiving yards per game (58.0) to the position.
Schultz had 35 receiving yards against Buffalo in Week 1, and Sam LaPorta rattled off 52 against them in Week 2.
Gadsden has been limited to a 31.0% snap share and 28.8% route participation rate in a revamped tight end room this year.
Unfortunately for the Chargers, Charlie Kolar and David Njoku are out with injuries.
Gadsden was the last healthy tight end on the active roster before the club signed Hayden Rucci.
The Chargers also have Patrick Herbert, Justin's younger brother, and Evan Svoboda available as options to call up from the practice squad.
Los Angeles' tight end room is inexperienced and unheralded, to say the least.
Gadsden is not a dirty-work, blocking tight end.
Nevertheless, he should see a sizable uptick in playing time, and he's an efficient receiver.
The second-year pro has a 21% target rate per route run, 2.0 receptions per game, 25.0 receiving yards per game, and 2.63 Y/RR in his minimal role this year.
In 16 games as a rookie, Gadsden had a 60.4% snap share, 60.4% route participation rate, 13.2% target share, 18% target rate per route, 3.3 receptions per game, 43.4 receiving yards per game, and 1.75 Y/RR.
Los Angeles will need to pass to keep up with Buffalo's high-octane offense, and Gadsden can be a critical part of the passing attack in an enhanced role after the losses of Kolar and Njoku.