Week 4 NFL Player Props: Best Prop Bets & Predictions

NFL Best Prop Bets: Week 4 Picks

• Bo Nix Under 225.5 Passing Yards (-112)
• George Kittle Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
• Rashee Rice Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

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NFL Week 4 Best Prop Bet: Bo Nix Under 225.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Davis Webb‘s offense hasn't been the same as Sean Payton‘s.

The club's new offensive coordinator has dialed back the passing game.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Broncos were fourth in pass rate over expected (5.5% PROE) in the regular season last year.

This season, the Broncos are 22nd in PROE (-1.3%).

Nix is off to a poor start, too.

Among 37 quarterbacks with at least 30 dropbacks this year, Nix is 26th in completion percentage (60.2%), tied for 19th in adjusted completion percentage (76.3%), 28th in yards per pass attempt (6.51), 27th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (5.38 ANY/A), and 27th in passing yards per game (201.7).

Nix has surpassed 225.5 passing yards only once in three games this year, doing so at home against the Jaguars in Week 2.

He had his worst output in his only road game this year, passing for 131 yards in Kansas City against the Chiefs in Week 1.

Nix having his worst game of the year on the road is unsurprising.

In 19 career road starts, Nix has averaged only 195.2 passing yards per game, with 5.82 yards per pass attempt and 5.33 ANY/A.

According to StatHead, Nix has cleared 225.5 passing yards in only four road starts in his career.

Additionally, the 49ers are facing an NFL-low -8.2% PROE this year and have allowed only 215 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

They held Matthew Stafford to 155 passing yards in Week 1 and Malik Willis to 197 in Week 2, though they ceded 280 to Jacoby Brissett in Week 3.

Nix is unlikely to light up the 49ers and should fall short of 225.5 passing yards.

NFL Week 4 Best Prop Bet: George Kittle Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Mike Evans has a rib injury that threatens his availability this week.

Meanwhile, Kittle has been trending up after a Week 1 game in Australia where he had only a 46.9% snap share, 47.2% route participation rate, 14.7% target share, 24.7% air yard share, 2 receptions, and 12 receiving yards.

In two subsequent contests, Kittle has a 68.7% snap share, 73.6% route participation rate, 22.4% target share, 28.1% first-read rate, 22.3% air yard share, 10 receptions, 162 receiving yards, and 4.15 yards per route run (Y/RR).

Kittle tallied 80 receiving yards against the Dolphins in Week 2 and 82 versus the Cardinals last week.

He also has a favorable matchup this week.

The Broncos have allowed 6.3 receptions per game, 66.3 receiving yards per game, and 7.37 yards per target to tight ends this year, coughing up 71 receiving yards to Travis Kelce in Week 1 and 62 to Tyler Higbee last week.

Even if Evans suits up, Kittle is playing well and should keep it up against Denver's defense.

NFL Week 4 Best Prop Bet: Rashee Rice Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Rice has posted 88 and 83 receiving yards in his past two contests after logging only 19 in Week 1.

Take the 83 yards in Week 2 with a grain of salt, as 31 came on the final play of regulation.

Still, Rice's Week 3 usage was encouraging.

He had a 75.5% snap share, 72.0% route participation rate, 37.5% target share, 50% target rate per route, 38.9% first-read rate, 43.7% air yard share, 7 receptions, 88 receiving yards, and 4.89 Y/RR against the Dolphins.

Rice should benefit from Las Vegas' coverage tendencies.

The Raiders have played zone coverage 77.0% of the time and two-high coverage 57.5% of the time this year.

Rice has a 21% target rate per route and 2.45 Y/RR on 58 routes against zone and a 21% target rate per route and 2.45 Y/RR on 42 routes against two-high coverage this season.

Since 2024, he has had a 31% target rate per route and 3.26 Y/RR on 263 routes against zone, and a 30% target rate per route and 2.89 Y/RR on 187 routes against two-high coverage.

Finally, the Raiders have allowed Caleb Douglas (5 receptions for 94 yards) and Chris Olave (9 receptions for 107 yards) to surpass 55.5 receiving yards against them, and Malik Washington (3 receptions for 53 yards) and Tre Harris (1 reception for 53 yards) fell just short of that threshold.

Rice should be the latest wideout to clear 55.5 receiving yards against the Raiders.