Super Bowl 60 between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks is just under two weeks away, and now is a great time to look ahead to early props that offer good value or could see the odds move ahead of the big game.
Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Patriots vs. Seahawks covered in our Super Bowl 60 Hub.
Super Bowl 60 Prediction: Sam Darnold Under 228.5 Passing Yards (-112)
One prop that I think we could see a change to in the line itself is Sam Darnold’s passing yards.
I think this is just a bit too high at 228.5, and I’d take the under.
Yes, Darnold was fantastic in the NFC Championship, completing 69.4% of his passes for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns.
However, the Rams' cornerbacks have been their kryptonite this season, and he’ll have a much more difficult matchup against a secondary led by Christian Gonzalez and a pass rush that has been causing problems all season for their opponents.
Before the conference title game, Darnold threw for 228 yards or fewer in three straight games.
Overall, this season, he’s finished under this line eight times.
As for the Patriots, they’re surrendering 200.7 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, and only five have thrown for 229 yards or more.
The last time it happened was Week 10 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
In fact, only one quarterback since then has crossed the 200 line.
Yes, I know, the Patriots haven’t played a rockstar lineup of quarterbacks, but they have held players like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and C.J. Stroud under that number.
Also, including the postseason, the Patriots are fourth in pressures with 295.
During the regular season only, they finished 14th with 226.
So, during this postseason, they’ve had 69 pressures, which leads all teams.
When pressured this season — which has been on 34.9% of his dropbacks — Darnold has completed 51.5% of his passes for 1,027 yards and averages 6.3 yards per attempt.
Between now and the Super Bowl, I think this line may drop a bit.
If not, I’m certainly taking the under here.
This is a tough secondary with a pass rush that should be able to get after Darnold.
I also don’t think we see a shootout game as we did in Darnold’s NFC Championship performance.
Super Bowl 60 Prediction: Drake Maye Under 7.5 Rush Attempts (-136)
This is another prop that I wouldn’t be surprised to see drop to 6.5 or so before kickoff.
Look, I get it.
Drake Maye ran 10 times last week against the Denver Broncos and 10 times in the Wild Card round against the Los Angeles Chargers, but 8 rush attempts is a lot.
Remember, last week against Denver, the weather got so bad that passing was borderline impossible.
Maye completed just 10 of 21 passes (47.6%) for 86 yards.
Thus, he ran 10 times for 65 yards, a touchdown, and also scrambled to seal the win.
That said, of those 10 carries, 3 of them were kneel-downs.
Going back to the Wild Card round, he ran 10 times, but like the conference title game, 3 of them were kneel-downs.
Across the regular and postseason, Maye is credited with 127 rush attempts, but 29 of them are kneel-downs.
When you remove the kneel-downs, he’s run 8 times or more in only one game all season.
Let’s say, though, that you think the Patriots will win, and that’ll include three kneel-downs to end the game.
He’s had five non-kneel-down carries or more in only eight of 20 games.
To add, let’s look at his carries when he’s pressured.
The Seahawks are just one of three teams to record more than 300 pressures across the regular and postseason.
When Maye is pressured, he’s run 36 times.
Plain and simple: Without the kneel-downs and potentially dealing with pressure, it’s going to be a tall task for the Patriots quarterback to reach 8 carries.
To top it all off, only two quarterbacks all season have rushed 8 times or more against the Seahawks.
Super Bowl 60 Prediction: Jake Bobo Under 0.5 Receiving Yards (-155)
One prop I’m feeling great about and think offers some great value, even at -155, is for Jake Bobo to finish under 0.5 receiving yards.
He’s gotten more involved in the past two weeks during this postseason, catching a combined 2 passes on 3 targets for 33 yards and a touchdown in the NFC Championship.
That said, he’s just barely on the field.
The Seahawks will be without running back Zach Charbonnet and, seemingly, Tory Horton Jr. in the Super Bowl.
When they’ve both not been on the field this season, including the postseason, Bobo has a 2.6% target share, catching just 3 of 4 passes for 50 yards and that score last week.
What makes me feel even better about it is that even without them both on the field, he runs a route on just 14% of his quarterback’s dropbacks.
Additionally, he’ll be taking on a Patriots defense that’s been stout against wide receivers this season, allowing 116.2 receiving yards to them per game, which is the fourth-fewest in the NFL.
Bobo isn’t only firmly behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, and Rashid Shaheed when it comes to wide receivers, but also players like Kenneth Walker III, A.J. Barner, and George Holani.
At this line, yes, it takes just one catch, but he’s not been a factor whatsoever this season.
Finally, should Horton somehow become available for the Super Bowl, Bobo will be even more invisible.
