While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props. Here we will be breaking down those props per player with career performance trends and some notes and nuggets.
All of these lines are current lines from BetMGM Sportsbook, so make sure you shop around for the best lines and numbers.
We have already looked at the prop lines set for Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. With that, we are jumping over to the props for the running backs.
I believe we are catching a good line for Miles Sanders here. Sanders has gone over (currently -105) this total in over half of his games this season while books are not completely able to account for the high number of snaps the Eagles have led this season combining that with how tight the current point spread is. This game is projected to be a tight contest, something the Eagles have not had a lot of this season.
No team has led for a higher rate of second half snaps than the Eagles this season, something that has spilled over into the postseason with them outscoring the Giants and 49ers by a combined score of 49-7. But make no mistake that Sanders is the foxhole back for the Eagles when the game is tight. In the first half of both playoff games, Sanders has played 43 snaps compared to 23 for Kenneth Gainwell and 16 for Boston Scott. In the first half of games this season, Sanders has 132 carries compared to 28 for Gainwell and 18 for Scott.
If you are already looking at the over for Sanders here, you can bet Sanders to have 15+ rushing attempts at +140 compared to taking the over 13.5 at -105.
Isiah Pacheco has gone over his current line (-110) in eight of his past 11 games since seeing an extended bump in playing time, but he has 12 or fewer carries in each of his past four games. If taking the over here, the Chiefs have increased their passing rate in the postseason under Mahomes, dropping back on 69.8% of their plays compared to a 66.3% rate in the regular season.
Ryan McCrystal has already laid out why he believes that you should take the rushing yardage overs for both Miles Sanders and Isiah Pacheco. Both players have a high hit rate this season in besting their current lines.
Outside of the analysis done by McCrystal in those pieces, the Eagles are number one in the NFL in EPA per carry to running backs. Philadelphia backs average 1.92 yards prior to contact per carry (third in the NFL) while 14.3% of their carries have gained 10 or more yards (first) and just 15.7% have failed to gain yardage (seventh).
Despite facing a light schedule of rushing opponents (they faced just three teams in the top 10 in EPA per carry to running backs), the Chiefs are just league average defending backfields. They are 18th in EPA allowed per rush to running backs, 16th in yards allowed per carry (4.35 YPC), 16th in success rate (61.9%), and 19th in the rate of those carries to gain a first down or touchdown (22.3%).
Pacheco has rushed for 58 or more yards in nine of his past 11 games since getting an extended workload. One of those games was the AFC Championship (26 yards on 10 carries) while we are flying blind if Clyde Edwards-Helaire will have any role in this game after being activated. But Pacheco is also coming off of his best workload of the season against the Bengals in a must-win game with everything on the line. I prefer betting Sanders more than Pacheco but did outline a few paths for Pacheco to find rushing efficiency in this game in the Super Bowl Worksheet.
There is not a lot of sizzle here as we have low reception totals across the board. The player who has hit his reception prop the most this season is Jerick McKinnon, but you are also paying a high tax on that here (-160).
Even Isiah Pacheco (-200) and Kenneth Gainwell (-150) have heavy juice towards their overs. Despite the totals being so low, there is more value in the under for both players, although both also have elements orbiting them in this game that push me to leave them be.
Pacheco ran 26 pass routes to 16 for McKinnon in the AFC Championship, which was the first time this entire season that Pacheco ran more routes in a game than the veteran back. As a byproduct, Pacheco was able to have season highs in targets (six), receptions (five), and receiving yards (59). That usage could be a one-off sample and we see McKinnon play more this Sunday. The Chiefs have already shown they will use their backs and wide receivers on a per-game basis. We are completely flying blind here on what is static from that role reversal against the Bengals. We also could see Edwards-Helaire take a few snaps away as another element in play.
If the Chiefs are able to force the Eagles into a negative game script that is the area where you can see Gainwell make his largest impact. Gainwell has played 120 third down passing snaps compared to just seven for Sanders this season. The Eagles have not been pressed into hardly any passing scripts, but Gainwell is the passing game back. Sanders has 21 receptions all season long. Due to the frequent positive game scripts, the Chiefs are allowing a league-high 6.3 receptions per game to backfields.
Low reception totals come attached to low yardage totals, but there is more value in this area than what we had in the reception department. That’s especially true if you are someone who is a Kansas City backer, which would potentially lead to more work for Gainwell in passing situations. While Gainwell’s reception over is at -150, his yardage over is at -110.
The same can be said for McKinnon (-120) if you believe that he regains his passing down role and Edwards-Helaire is also not a threat. His under is -110 if you believe both Pacheco and Edwardsa-Helaire are issues. The Eagles are 17th in receptions allowed per game (4.9) to backs but they do rank eighth in yards allowed per target (5.0) to the position.
The line for Miles Sanders is subterranean, but he also has -4 receiving yards over his past six games played and is averaging 3.9 yards per reception this season.
More Super Bowl Prop Bet Coverage:
- Best Long Shot Prop Bets For Super Bowl 57
- Best Super Bowl Receiving Prop Bets: Travis Kelce, DeVonta Smith
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Isiah Pacheco
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Miles Sanders
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Jalen Hurts
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Patrick Mahomes
- Super Bowl 57 Prop Bet Tracker
Be sure to look through our Super Bowl 57 Hub for detailed coverage & analysis on the big game.
Also, check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
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