While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props. Here we will be breaking down those props per player with career performance trends and some notes and nuggets.
All of these lines are current lines from DraftKings Sportsbook, so make sure you shop around for the best lines and numbers.
We took a look at the props for Patrick Mahomes, the props for Tom Brady, the props for the Kansas City pass catchers, and the props for the Tampa Bay pass catchers. Wrapping things up, we are taking a look at the primary rushing props for the running backs in this game. If looking for the receiving props for these backs, check out those pass catching posts while the quarterback rushing yardage lines are in those respective posts.
Both backfields in the Super Bowl have question marks and potential timeshares. We are seeing the uneasiness of projecting the workloads bear out in these lines as Leonard Fournette has the highest lines among running backs at just 11.5 carries and 48.5 rushing yards.
For Tampa Bay, Fournette was trending to be this season’s LeSean McCoy. But late-season and playoff injuries to Ronald Jones put Fournette back on the path for opportunity and he did not waste his touches. Fournette has carried the ball 12 or more times in all three postseason games and in four of his past six games played. Jones did not play at all in three of those games, however.
For Jones, he has carried the ball at least nine times in 13 of his 16 games played this season, including both postseason games he has played despite playing just 30% and 28% of the offensive snaps. With an extra week off and warmer weather for his quad injury to be good to go, this is not a bad line to look at the over (-112).
Down 17 points after the first quarter when these teams played in Week 12, Tampa Bay had a 32-9 pass-to-run rate the final three quarters of the game. I would expect this game to be tighter to open and the Buccaneers to sustain more balance throughout the game compared to that first matchup.
On the Chiefs side, they got Clyde Edwards-Helaire back on the field for the AFC Championship Game for the first time since Week 15 after the rookie suffered ankle and hip injuries. Edwards-Helaire out-snapped Darrel Williams in that game versus Buffalo 32-30, but it was Williams who received the most touches (14-7) while out-gaining the rookie 61 yards to eight. In the rushing game, Williams carried the ball 13 times to just six for Edwards-Helaire, giving him 13 carries in each postseason game.
This also does not even factor whatever (if any) snaps Le’Veon Bell may play. Paired with the Tampa Bay defense and offensive mindset for the Chiefs, this makes their totals tough to bank on despite Edwards-Helaire clearing this attempt line in 11 of his 14 games played this season. Edwards-Helaire is -143 towards the over here, which the largest juice towards the over for any of these backs.
The Buccaneers were second in EPA against the run and strong at preventing explosive gains on the ground. When these teams played in Week 12, Kansas City backs rushed 16 times for 59 yards (3.7 YPC) in totality. The Chiefs threw the ball 72.2% of their offensive snaps, their second-highest rate in a game this season. They carried a 43-12 pass-to-run rate through three quarters before having a 9-8 split in the fourth quarter.
Fournette has rushed for 93, 63, and 55 yards over the three postseason games. Jones has cleared his yardage total in 10-of-16 games this season. The line on the over for Jones (-118) is identical to the under for Fournette, which is another indicator that expectation is that Jones should see more opportunities than he did in the NFC Championship game. The Chiefs have allowed 4.5 yards per carry to backs (20th).
Edwards-Helaire cleared this line (-112) 11 times in 14 games played, including against the Bucs back in Week 12 when he carried 11 times for 37 yards. The tax here is better than his rushing attempts if willing to take the plunge and have faith in him reverting back to the 1A in this backfield.
All of these longest rush props are sitting at -112 in either direction at DraftKings, so we are on even ground. If banking on hitting one chunk gain, both Jones and Edwards-Helaire have cleared their longest rush props in over 60% of their games played this season.
Edwards-Helaire has an 11-yard run in all but four of his games this season. One of those was in Week 12 against Tampa when the longest carry for a Kansas City back went for 10 yards. Tampa Bay allowed the fewest runs of 10 or more yards this season (33) on just 9.5% of their carries faced (fifth). The line for Williams does not do him justice due to his role for the regular season, but he has a 13-yard run in each of the postseason games.
Jones has had some uneven moments this season, but he has turned in explosive gains. If chasing anyone here, he is the back I would pursue. When these teams played earlier in the season, he had a 34-yard carry. 10.9% of Jones’s carries gained 10 or more yards this season compared to 6.2% for Fournette, but Fournette does have carries of 20 and 17 yards this postseason. As much as perception is that the Chiefs can be completely pushed around, they were second in the NFL in allowing runs of 10 or more yards on 9.0% of the carries against them during the regular season, which was a lower rate than the Bucs.