While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props. Here we will be breaking down those props per player with career performance trends and some notes and nuggets.
All of these lines are current lines from DraftKings Sportsbook, so make sure you shop around for the best lines and numbers.
We took a look at the props for Patrick Mahomes, the props for Tom Brady, and the props for the Kansas City pass catchers. Now we are digging into the primary receiving props for the Tampa Bay receivers.
From a reception stance, Chris Godwin has had a stellar floor. Godwin had at least four receptions in 13-of-15 games played this season with five or more receptions in 11 of those games. He hit six or more receptions in just five games, but one of those was against the Chiefs back in Week 12 when Godwin caught 8-of-9 targets for 97 yards. Earlier this week, we highlighted how slot wide receivers have produced more favorably versus Kansas City. Godwin has played 66.1% of his snaps from the slot, where he has caught 52 passes for 682 yards and five touchdowns on the season. In that Week 12 game, he had five catches for 80 yards out of the slot. The over is -125 on reaching six catches, but one firmly in play.
Mike Evans hit his Super Bowl reception prop more often this season than Godwin did and has gotten more involved as the season has gone on. Evans has seen 7.8 targets per game over his final 10 games of the season after just 5.7 per game prior. Evans caught just 3-of-9 targets for 50 yards when these teams played earlier in the season. But if looking for a path to the over here (-105), Evans has seen his snap rate in the slot rise to 37.8% this season and climb to 41.7% in the postseason. Although back in Week 12, it was just 28.2%, with one catch from the slot.
From a reception stance, Antonio Brown did catch at least four passes in six of his 10 games played this season with the Bucs. Brown missed the NFC Title game due to a knee injury and his full availability for Sunday is still in question, although he is on track to play. Brown caught 2-of-3 targets for 11 yards back in Week 12 when these teams played while Brown played 73% of the snaps, which was his second-highest total of the season.
If Brown is limited, the primary benefactor is Scotty Miller. Prior to Brown joining the team, Miller had run a pass route on 68.5% of the team dropbacks and then 26.5% afterward. With Brown out for the NFC Championship, Miller ran 20 pass routes compared to 11 for Tyler Johnson. But in games played with Brown active, Miller has caught more than one pass in just one of those 10 games.
Rob Gronkowski now has two or fewer receptions in five straight games and in nine of his past 11 games. Over those same 11 games, Cameron Brate has 29 receptions on 38 targets compared to Gronk’s 21 receptions on 44 targets. In the postseason, Brate has out-targeted Gronk 17-7.
But when these teams played in Week 12, the tight ends were a focal point for the Bucs. Gronk caught 6-of-7 targets for a season-high 106 yards while Brate caught 4-of-6 targets for 34 yards.
If looking at the Tampa Bay backfield, Leonard Fournette run a pass route on 37.4% of the team dropbacks compared to 26.5% for Ronald Jones, who does not even have receiving props up at DraftKings. Jones has not caught more than one pass in a game since Week 9 while Fournette played 20 passing snaps when these teams last played compared to eight for Jones in that game.
Fournette has at least three receptions in six of his past seven games while getting to four grabs in each of the three postseason games for the Bucs this season. Opposing backfields averaged 5.3 receptions per game versus the Chiefs (26th).
Not only did Godwin clear this yardage total (-106) against the Chiefs back in Week 12 with 97 yards, he also did so in over half of his games played this season, including four of the past five games.
Evans has been volatile, posting 64 or more yards in seven games this season. That is reflected in his under (-118) compared to the over (-106), but when he does hit, he hits big, as five of those games seen him clear 100 yards through the air.
Brate’s season-long numbers look worse than they are because of his lack of involvement early in the season, but he has at least 30 receiving yards in five of his past 10 games played, including 34 yards versus Kansas City in Week 12.
Gronk had a season-high 106 yards in that first meeting, but has reached 30 yards through the air in just one of his seven games since. Ironically, Gronk has four games this season with exactly 29 yards.
Both Godwin (-112) and Gronk (-112) stand out from a longest reception stance towards the over. Although Gronk has not been catching a lot of passes of late to provide a ton of faith in playing his previous overs, when he has still caught passes of late, they have hit for significant yardage. Gronk has a catch of at least 16 yards in 12-of-19 games this season and in seven of his past 10 games played.
Godwin has a reception of 25 yards or more in 9-of-15 games played this season. That includes a 44-yard catch against the Chiefs in Week 12. With that, Godwin has a 40-yard reception in four of his past eight games with a 27-yard reception or higher in four of his past five games.