The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Bears and Vikings.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Chicago | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 21.0 | Implied Total | 24.5 | ||
| 20.9 | 19 | Points/Gm | 23.0 | 11 |
| 26.0 | 29 | Points All./Gm | 20.9 | 15 |
| 64.4 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 64.5 | 13 |
| 61.4 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.5 | 20 |
| 5 | 21 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 8 |
| 5.3 | 21 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 10 |
| 49.15% | 3 | Rush% | 37.66% | 28 |
| 50.85% | 30 | Pass% | 62.34% | 5 |
| 38.22% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 40.20% | 10 |
| 61.78% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 59.80% | 23 |
- Minnesota has covered the point spread in six straight games, the longest active streak in the league.
- Minnesota has won five straight games versus the Bears (4-1 ATS), their longest winning streak in this rivalry since the 1992-1994 seasons (six straight).
- The Bears have given opponents 252 more penalty yards than they have gained, the worst margin in the league.
- The Bears have allowed opponents to score a touchdown on 75.0% (24-of-32) of their red zone possessions, the highest rate in the league.
- Opponents have had 20 possessions start in Chicago territory, the most in the league.
- Chicago is averaging 59.9 more rushing yards per game than their opponent, second in the NFL.
- 39.3% of the Minnesota yardage has been via rushing over their past three games, ninth in the league.
- 20.7% of their yardage before that was via rushing, the lowest rate in the league.
- Minnesota is allowing 26.2 explosive rushing yards per game, second in the NFL.
- Chicago is allowing 29.7 explosive rushing yards per game, fourth in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Justin Fields: Fields was welcomed back by gamers this past week as he posted a QB8 (21.2 points) scoring week.
Fields completed 69.6% (16-of-23) of his passes for 163 yards, highlighted by a 39-yard touchdown strike to D.J. Moore.
Fields has now completed 8.4% more of his passes versus expectations since Week 4, the highest rate in the league.
While the passing production was based on efficiency over volume, the real highlight for fantasy was Fields rushing 18 times for 104 yards.
Fields has now been a top-10 scorer in each of his past three full* starts.
I used an asterisk there because Fields struggled in this first matchup before exiting due to the thumb injury that sidelined him.
Fields took 17 dropbacks in that Week 6 meeting, completing 6-of-10 passes for 58 yards with an interception before exiting after the opening drive of the second half.
The Vikings blitz on a league-high 47.2% of dropbacks.
We have brought this up before, but Fields has been strong against the blitz over his career.
This season, Fields is averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt with a 7.0% touchdown rate when blitzed.
For his career, he has a 7.0% touchdown against the blitz as opposed to a 3.7% touchdown rate when he has not been blitzed.
In that Week 6 matchup, Fields was 3-of-5 for 42 yards (8.4 Y/A) when blitzed as opposed to 3-of-5 for 16 yards (3.2 Y/A) when not blitzed.
After Fields left the game, Minnesota blitzed Tyson Bagent on 93.3% of his dropbacks.
Fields has the rushing ability to land as a QB1 option, with that passing upside against the blitz, but we will need him to run the ball here given what saw from that first matchup.
Minnesota has not allowed a QB1 scorer since Patrick Mahomes in Week 5, and they have allowed one or fewer passing touchdowns in five of their past six games.
Josh Dobbs: The Vikings ended up with a tough loss on Sunday night, but Dobbs was still able to provide a solid fantasy line for gamers.
Dobbs ended as QB13 (16.9 points), completing 20-of-32 passes (62.5%) for 221 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
His 10.8 passing points were 16th on the week, but Dobbs added 21 yards rushing and another rushing score to his line to boost his output.
Dobbs now has rushed for a touchdown in five straight games.
In his six games with a rushing score this season, Dobbs is averaging 21.9 fantasy points with an average week as QB7.
In his five games without a rushing score, he is averaging 12.1 points with an average finish as QB19.
Because of his dependency on rushing touchdowns, Dobbs is best used as floor-based QB2, but he does have that #Konami appeal if you have been riding with him in 1QB formats.
The Bears have allowed a 5.5% touchdown rate (30th) to passers to offer scoring appeal through the air, but they have allowed just 5.9 yards per pass attempt over their past six games, which is fifth in the league over that stretch.
Running Back
Vikings RBs: Alexander Mattison was able to clear concussion protocol last week.
He led this backfield with 48 snaps (64.9%) and had 19 touches for 80 yards, but he only handled 57.6% of the backfield touches, his lowest rate in a full game since Week 7.
Ty Chandler bested Mattison with 110 yards on his 14 touches.
Both backs took advantage of one of the league’s worst run defenses, but things get tougher here.
The Bears have allowed a league-low 3.37 yards per carry to backs. When these teams played in Week 6, Minnesota backs rushed 19 times for 52 yards.
The Bears are allowing a league-high 15.2 receiving points per game to backs as an added out.
With this looking like a 60/40 split in favor of Mattison paired with a tougher matchup, both Minnesota backs are touchdown-dependent FLEX options.
Bears RBs: With Khalil Herbert coming back, this was a backfield we were looking to gain some clarity on moving forward.
That did not happen with D’Onta Foreman suffering an ankle injury.
In the first quarter, Foreman played 11 snaps and had four touches, including all of the goal-to-go snaps with a touchdown.
Herbert played five snaps with one touch in the opening quarter while Roschon Johnson played three snaps with zero touches.
After Foreman left the game early in the second quarter, Herbert ended his day with 18 touches for 41 yards while Johnson had 30 yards on his six touches.
Foreman could end up missing time now, leaving us back to where we left off before Herbert’s knee injury in Week 5.
That would be what we saw on Sunday, with Herbert as the lead back and Johnson as the passing-down back.
This is a tougher matchup as well.
Minnesota is allowing 3.57 YPC to running backs (fifth) and 9.4 rushing points per game (sixth) backfields.
Similar to the backfield above, Herbert is a touchdown-dependent FLEX play (assuming Foreman misses) while Johnson is only a single-game DFS option.
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Wide Receiver
D.J. Moore: Moore welcomed back Justin Fields more than fantasy gamers on Sunday, catching 7-of-9 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown.
Moore now has games of 8-131-1, 8-230-3, and 7-96-1 in his last three full games played with Fields.
With Fields in the game, Moore now is averaging 13.3 air yards per target with a 28.9% deep target rate.
With Tyson Bagent, he averaged 9.8 air yards per target with a 14.3% deep target rate.
Moore did only have one catch for seven yards in this matchup in Week 6 before Fields left in the second half, so he was not tracking to break the bank that week.
With Fields back, Moore is an upside WR2.
Minnesota is middle-of-the-pack in allowing 14.2 points per game to opposing WR1 targets (14th).
If they do get aggressive again here, Moore has 30.8% of the team targets with 3.49 yards per route run when Fields has been blitzed this season.
