The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Lions and Packers on Thanksgiving.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Green Bay | Rank | @ | Detroit | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Spread | -7.5 | ||
| 19.75 | Implied Total | 27.25 | ||
| 20.2 | 20 | Points/Gm | 27.2 | 6 |
| 20.2 | 10 | Points All./Gm | 22.9 | 22 |
| 61.5 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 67.6 | 3 |
| 64.6 | 22 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.5 | 5 |
| 5.2 | 15 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 4 |
| 5.1 | 13 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 16 |
| 40.98% | 20 | Rush% | 43.93% | 10 |
| 59.02% | 13 | Pass% | 56.07% | 23 |
| 47.99% | 29 | Opp. Rush % | 39.34% | 8 |
| 52.01% | 4 | Opp. Pass % | 60.66% | 25 |
- The Lions have won (and covered) four straight games against the Packers. With a win on Thursday, it will be their longest winning streak in the rivalry since winning 11 in a row in 1949-1954.
- 71.1% of the scoring plays by Detroit have been touchdowns, second in the league.
- 47.5% of the scoring plays against Green Bay have been touchdowns, the sixth-lowest rate in the league.
- Detroit has scored 14 touchdowns from outside of the red zone, tied with Miami for the most in the NFL.
- Just 25.5% of the Detroit drives have failed to gain a first down or score a touchdown prior, second in the NFL. The league average is 34.1%.
- 25.4% of the rushing attempts against Detroit have gained five or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- 35.6% of the rushing attempts against Green Bay have gained five or more yards, 27th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jared Goff: Goff ended last week as the QB18 (13.7 points), keeping his run of boom-or-bust performances going.
He threw three interceptions for the first time in a game since 2019.
His 6.7 yards per pass attempt was the second-lowest rate he has had in a game this season.
Goff has now had four weeks as the QB8 or higher in weekly scoring to go along with five weeks as the QB18 or lower.
One of those latter weeks was when these teams played in Green Bay in Week 4.
In that game, Goff was 19-of-28 for 210 yards (7.5 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
That was a game that Detroit won decidedly with three of their four offensive touchdowns coming on the ground.
Goff only threw eight times in the second half as Detroit led 27-3 at halftime.
Detroit had their lowest dropback rate (42.5%) in a game this season that week. Outside of that game, the Lions have had a 58.2% dropback rate with a 50.0% or higher rate in eight of their nine other games.
The Packers play a lot of Cover-3, using it on 46.1% of passing plays (third in the league). They were in Cover-3 for 46.7% of the passing snaps against the Lions in Week 4.
Against Cover-3, Goff is the third-highest-rated quarterback in the league (104.9), throwing for 8.8 Y/A (fourth) and a league-high 11 touchdowns.
If Green Bay can keep the script neutral or Detroit just has a more even distribution in how they reach the end zone, there is still plenty of upside for Goff as a fringe QB1.
While I would not hate the idea of using Goff in 1QB leagues or on the Thanksgiving slate, I would prefer to use Goff as a QB2 due to his variance and the top-down matchup. The Packers have allowed multiple passing touchdowns just twice this season and are eighth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.362). They have yet to allow a 300-yard passer.
Jordan Love: Love took advantage of a great matchup at home last week, closing the week out as the QB9 (20.9 points).
It was the first time that he reached 20 points in a game since Week 3, setting a career-high with 322 passing yards. It was the first 300-yard passing game of his career.
It has not been a stable ride, but Love has regularly provided viable fantasy production for 2QB gamers this season.
Last week was his first QB1 scoring week since Week 3, but he also has just two weeks this season in the back half of weekly scoring.
That includes the Week 4 matchup between these teams when Love was the QB14 (17.6 points).
In that game, Love threw for just 6.8 Y/A and had two interceptions, but he was able to add a rushing touchdown and a two-point conversion to massage his line.
The Lions are fifth in the league in terms of pressure rate (40.3% of dropbacks) and pressured Love on a season-high 48.8% of his dropbacks in that matchup.
Under pressure, Love was 6-of-14 for 48 yards (3.4 Y/A) with an interception.
When Green Bay gave him a clean pocket, he was 17-of-22 (77.3%) for 198 yards (9.0 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
Running Back
Detroit RBs: This backfield split remained tight, with a slight edge to Jahmyr Gibbs.
Gibbs played 35 snaps (56.5%) compared to 25 (40.3%) for David Montgomery.
Gibbs had that snap edge by running 21 pass routes (55.3%) compared to 11 for Monty (28.9%).
Despite the edge in time on the field, both backs tallied 14 touches.
Gibbs rushed eight times for 36 yards while catching all six of his targets for 59 yards.
Montgomery rushed 12 times for 76 yards, catching two passes for 22 yards.
Both backs converted a carry inside of the five-yard line for a touchdown.
This is very similar usage to how we saw the Green Bay backfield being split at full strength, only in a more optimal team environment to produce fantasy points.
There is some touchdown fragility here as both of these backs are not going to score together each week like they have the past two games, but there is meat on the bone for both backs to operate as higher-end RB2 options with scoring upside.
Gibbs gains more stability in full-PPR formats while Montgomery gets a boost in non-PPR formats.
When these teams met in Week 4, Montgomery steamrolled Green Bay, rushing 32 times for 121 yards and three touchdowns.
Gibbs only played 28 snaps in that game (37.3%), something that is not expected to repeat itself here.
The Packers have allowed 15.1 rushing points per game (26th) to backfields.
AJ Dillon: Dillon will be called upon to lead this backfield for Thanksgiving after both Aaron Jones and Emmanuel Wilson left last week’s game with injuries on the same drive.
Both backs are likely to be out for this week at minimum, with the team bringing back James Robinson to the practice squad. Dillon also is dealing with a groin strain, so Green Bay is operating on a limited basis here.
Dillon has not been particularly good with his opportunities, which leaves him as a volume and touchdown-dependent FLEX.
Out of 31 backs to have 100 or more carries this season, Dillon sits:
- 27th in yards per carry (3.5 YPC)
- 24th in success rate (30.8%)
- 30th in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (4.3%)
- 22nd in the rate of runs to gain a first down or touchdown (17.2%)
Detroit is allowing 3.50 YPC to running backs (third in the league) and is fourth in explosive rush rate allowed (7.6%).
That includes allowing Green Bay running backs to rush 10 times for 29 yards when these teams played in Week 4.
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Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Catching 8-of-11 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown Sunday, St. Brown continues to provide the highest floor paired with upside at the position.
He is the only wide receiver to score at least 14.0 PPR points in every game this year.
St. Brown has 100 yards or a touchdown in every game, with four WR1 scoring weeks over his past five games.
He has been targeted on 29.6% of his routes, third in the league.
When these teams played in Week 4, St. Brown caught 5-of-7 targets for 56 yards and a score.
Detroit did throttle down their passing volume due to the game script in that one. The Packers also had Rasul Douglas and Jaire Alexander in that game. Douglas has since been traded, and Alexander remains a question mark this week due to injury.
St. Brown is a locked-in WR1 for fantasy with added upside as long as the Lions keep their foot on the gas here.
As noted with Goff, Green Bay has played Cover-3 among the highest rates in the league this season.
Against Cover-3, St. Brown is tied for third in the NFL with 358 receiving yards, averaging 14.9 yards per catch and 2.89 yards per route run.
