The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Jaguars and Texans.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Houston | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Spread | 1.5 | ||
| 24.75 | Implied Total | 23.25 | ||
| 23.0 | 11 | Points/Gm | 23.8 | 10 |
| 20.4 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 20.8 | 14 |
| 65.4 | 8 | Plays/Gm | 65.3 | 9 |
| 62.4 | 11 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.3 | 15 |
| 5.1 | 18 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 6 |
| 5.5 | 26 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 22 |
| 44.34% | 7 | Rush% | 41.81% | 17 |
| 55.66% | 26 | Pass% | 58.19% | 16 |
| 36.06% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 41.71% | 14 |
| 63.94% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 58.29% | 19 |
- The Jaguars are 4-0 against the spread on the road this season.
- The Jaguars are 1-4 straight up and against the spread against Houston since drafting Trevor Lawrence.
- Jacksonville has 259 fewer penalty yards than their opponents this season, the best margin in the league.
- Houston has the most passing plays of 20 or more yards in the league (49).
- Houston games are averaging 519.1 combined passing yards per game, the second-most in the league.
- The Jaguars have allowed opponents to score on 25.7% of their drives starting in their territory, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.
- 21.6% of the Jacksonville rushing attempts (excluding kneel-downs) have failed to gain yardage, 29th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud: Even with 336 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, Stroud ended as the QB16 (15.3 points) because he threw three interceptions.
Stroud was on fire early against Arizona. He completed 18-of-24 passes for 259 yards (10.8 Y/A) with two touchdowns and an interception in the first half.
On the opening drive of the third quarter, Stroud took a huge hit from Jalen Thompson that forced him to be evaluated for a concussion.
He only missed one play before coming back in, but he was never the same afterward, completing 8-of-12 passes for 73 yards (6.1 Y/A) with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
Even if the second half was happenstance or Stroud had an ongoing issue, he has thrown for over 300 yards with over 9.0 yards per pass attempt in three straight games.
He has now thrown for over 9.0 Y/A in five games already this season.
That includes the first time that these teams met back in Week 3.
In that matchup in Jacksonville, Stroud connected on 20-of-30 passes for 280 yards with two touchdowns.
Jacksonville was aggressive in that matchup, blitzing Stroud on 36.7% of his dropbacks, their third-highest rate in a game this season.
Against the blitz in that game, Stroud was 8-of-11 for 120 yards (11.8 Y/A) and both of his touchdowns.
We will see how aggressive the Jaguars get here in the rematch, but since that game, Stroud has only been blitzed on 23.9% of his dropbacks, 20th in the league.
The thing is, even when he has not been blitzed, Stroud is averaging 7.9 Y/A, which is fourth in the league.
Stroud remains a back-end QB1 with added upside.
The Jaguars are 26th in passing points allowed per game (15.0) and have been opponent-driven for fantasy.
Anthony Richardson, Stroud, Josh Allen, and Brock Purdy have all logged top-10 scoring weeks against the Jaguars (as well as Derek Carr) while the QB2 weeks they have allowed have been to Patrick Mahomes, Desmond Ridder, Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett/Mitchell Trubisky, and Will Levis.
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet and all of Rich's regular content, including positional rankings and chats, click below to purchase our season-long fantasy package or weekly starter stack.
Purchase
