The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Colts and Bucs.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 23.0 | ||
| 19.2 | 23 | Points/Gm | 24.2 | 9 |
| 20.0 | 9 | Points All./Gm | 24.8 | 26 |
| 61.9 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 64.8 | 12 |
| 63.4 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 69.5 | 32 |
| 4.9 | 23 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 16 |
| 5.7 | 27 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 15 |
| 40.06% | 24 | Rush% | 44.14% | 9 |
| 59.94% | 9 | Pass% | 55.86% | 24 |
| 38.01% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 45.76% | 26 |
| 61.99% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 54.24% | 7 |
- The Colts are 5-0 in games they have led at halftime and 0-5 in games they have trailed at halftime.
- The Colts have scored on 4-of-11 (36.4%) drives to start on the opponent's side of the field, the lowest rate in the league. The league average is 50.0%.
- Opponents have a 34.4% touchdown conversion rate in the red zone against Tampa Bay (11-of-32), the lowest rate in the league.
- Tampa Bay has converted 46.4% (13-of-28) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns, 28th in the league.
- 60.0% (15-of-25) of the touchdowns scored against the Colts have come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- Tampa Bay is last in the NFL in rate of runs to gain five or more yards (27.4%).
- 31.8% of the Indianapolis runs have gained five or more yards, 28th in the league.
- Opponents against the Colts are averaging a league-high 54.2 touches per game.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield’s four-game streak as a QB1 came to an end last week against the 49ers.
Closing as QB22 (10.3 points), Mayfield completed 29-of-45 passes for 246 yards (5.5 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
The Bucs did have a pair of dropped touchdown passes late in the game, but we knew it was a tough spot for Mayfield last week in San Francisco.
Things get better this week indoors against the Colts.
We know that the Colts and Gus Bradley are going to play a lot of zone and Cover-3.
They are playing man coverage on a league-low 8.0% of passing plays. They are playing Cover-3 on 50.4% of those passing plays, which is second in the league.
Mayfield has completed just 49.1% of his passes against man coverage this season (28th), so he should not run into issues in that department.
Against Cover-3, Mayfield is completing 70.5% of his passes (ninth in the league) and has a 101.6 rating (seventh).
With no bye weeks, Mayfield is not someone you have to force in 1QB leagues, but he is a matchup-based option in 2QB formats.
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