The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Colts and Bucs.

Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Tampa BayRank@IndianapolisRank
2.5 Spread-2.5
20.5 Implied Total23.0
20.09Points All./Gm24.826
63.417Opp. Plays/Gm69.532
4.923Off. Yards/Play5.216
5.727Def. Yards/Play5.215
38.01%6Opp. Rush %45.76%26
61.99%27Opp. Pass %54.24%7

  • The Colts are 5-0 in games they have led at halftime and 0-5 in games they have trailed at halftime.
  • The Colts have scored on 4-of-11 (36.4%) drives to start on the opponent’s side of the field, the lowest rate in the league. The league average is 50.0%.
  • Opponents have a 34.4% touchdown conversion rate in the red zone against Tampa Bay (11-of-32), the lowest rate in the league.
  • Tampa Bay has converted 46.4% (13-of-28) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns, 28th in the league.
  • 60.0% (15-of-25) of the touchdowns scored against the Colts have come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
  • Tampa Bay is last in the NFL in rate of runs to gain five or more yards (27.4%).
  • 31.8% of the Indianapolis runs have gained five or more yards, 28th in the league.
  • Opponents against the Colts are averaging a league-high 54.2 touches per game.

Trust = spike production for that player


Baker Mayfield: Mayfield’s four-game streak as a QB1 came to an end last week against the 49ers.

Closing as QB22 (10.3 points), Mayfield completed 29-of-45 passes for 246 yards (5.5 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.

The Bucs did have a pair of dropped touchdown passes late in the game, but we knew it was a tough spot for Mayfield last week in San Francisco.

Things get better this week indoors against the Colts.

We know that the Colts and Gus Bradley are going to play a lot of zone and Cover-3.

They are playing man coverage on a league-low 8.0% of passing plays. They are playing Cover-3 on 50.4% of those passing plays, which is second in the league.

Mayfield has completed just 49.1% of his passes against man coverage this season (28th), so he should not run into issues in that department.

Against Cover-3, Mayfield is completing 70.5% of his passes (ninth in the league) and has a 101.6 rating (seventh).

With no bye weeks, Mayfield is not someone you have to force in 1QB leagues, but he is a matchup-based option in 2QB formats.

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