The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Commanders and Cowboys on Thanksgiving.

Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

11.0 Spread-11.0
18.75 Implied Total29.75
27.732Points All./Gm17.55
64.824Opp. Plays/Gm57.82
5.217Off. Yards/Play5.69
5.828Def. Yards/Play4.63
40.25%11Opp. Rush %45.67%25
59.75%22Opp. Pass %54.33%8

  • Since 2010, the Cowboys are 5-8 straight up on Thanksgiving and 2-11 against the spread.
  • Washington is 5-1-1 against the spread as an underdog and 0-4 as a favorite this season.
  • Dallas is a league-best 4-0 against the spread at home this season, covering those games by an average of 17.9 points per game.
  • Washington is allowing 6.6 sacks plus turnovers per game, 31st in the league.
  • Dallas is averaging 4.9 sacks plus takeaways per game on defense, third in the league.
  • Washington has allowed opponents to score on 40.4% of their drives that start in their territory, 30th in the league.
  • The Cowboys have scored on 50.0% of their possessions over their past five games, second in the NFL.
  • The Cowboys have converted 62.5% (15-of-24) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns over their past five games (seventh in the league) after a 36.8% rate prior (28th).
  • Dallas has 60 more points scored on passing plays than their opponent, tied for the most in the league.
  • Washington has 54 fewer points scored on passing plays than their opponent, 31st in the NFL.
  • Washington has allowed a league-high 14 touchdowns from outside of the red zone. The next closest team has allowed nine.
  • Washington has allowed a league-high 20 passing plays of 30 or more yards.
  • Dallas has allowed a league-low six passing plays of 30 or more yards.

All-Access Package

Trust = spike production for that player


Dak Prescott (TRUST): After a blistering run of front-end fantasy output over the previous four weeks, Prescott cooled off a bit on Sunday.

He threw for 189 yards, his fewest in a game since Week 5, while his 5.0 yards per pass attempt were his lowest in a game this season.

That said, he still turned in a respectable floor (16.2 points) thanks in part to throwing a pair of touchdowns, his fourth straight game with multiple passing scores.

Prescott can give thanks for having the best matchup in the league this week as a huge home favorite.

Washington is allowing the most passing points per pass attempt (0.522). Since Week 2, every quarterback to face Washington has scored more points than they were averaging entering the matchup.

Nine of those 10 quarterbacks have finished as top-10 scorers with six as top-five scorers that week. The only exception was Mac Jones (who still did outscore his average).

That includes Tommy DeVito (22.5 points) last week as well as Desmond Ridder (16.1 points), Tyrod Taylor (21.7 points), and Geno Smith (24.1 points).

Sam Howell: Howell was an outright disaster as a real quarterback on Sunday.

He threw for a season-low 5.7 yards per pass attempt and three interceptions, one of which was run back for a touchdown.

Despite that, Howell still found a way to get there for fantasy. He has the Ryan Fitzpatrick gene.

Howell rushed for 35 yards and a touchdown to anchor his line.

He threw the ball another 45 times, giving him 42 pass attempts or more in five straight games. That is the longest streak in team history that a Washington quarterback has thrown the ball 40 or more times.

With the fantasy dust settling, Howell still was the QB12 (17.7 points) this past week. He now has been the QB13 or higher in weekly scoring in 9-of-11 weeks.

Despite toeing the line as a fringe QB1, this is a spot where I would prefer to use Howell as a volume-based QB2.

Dallas leads the NFL in pressure rate (47.1%) and is second in sack rate (10.5%).

Howell has thrown a league-high nine interceptions under pressure this season with 50 sacks.

He has faced just one other team in the top 10 in pressure rate, which was Buffalo.

In that game, he threw zero touchdowns and four interceptions, getting pressured on 51.3% of his dropbacks.

To give Howell some benefit of the doubt here, he made his first career start against the Cowboys last year and was pressured on 48.0% of his dropbacks.

In that game, he still found a way to 18.3 fantasy points. He only completed 11-of-19 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and an interception but ran for 35 yards and a touchdown.

Running Back

Tony Pollard: Pollard was able to stay above water for once in a solid matchup, turning 16 touches into 80 yards and his first touchdown since the season opener.

While we are not going to throw a parade for 80 yards and a score against the Panthers, Sunday did provide some positive usage trends should they become static.

Pollard was targeted on 19.2% of his routes, his highest rate since Week 6.

We are going to want receiving usage here as Washington is 26th in receiving points allowed per game to running backs (10.9 per game).

Over their past six games, Washington has allowed the lead running back to clear 40 receiving yards in five of those weeks. In the past two weeks, they have allowed three receiving scores to running backs.

He also had some explosive runs, which have slowly trickled back.

Pollard has a 14.8% explosive rush rate over the past two weeks after a 6.7% rate prior.

This is a game that I believe still sets up for the Dallas passing game to do what they were doing the four weeks before Sunday.

That can create scoring opportunities for Pollard again, but it is hard to project him pushing 20 touches given the implied game script.

Pollard is averaging 15.1 touches per game over his past seven games. That means he will be reliant on efficiency, passing usage, and scoring production.

On the ground, Washington is allowing 4.23 YPC (22nd) to backfields.

Pollard is a boom-or-bust RB1.

Brian Robinson: Having the Washington backfield nearly to himself on Sunday, Robinson turned a season-high 24 touches into 131 total yards.

With Antonio Gibson inactive, Robinson handled 72.7% of the backfield touches, his highest rate in a game since Week 2.

Robinson ran a pass route on a season-high 63.5% of the team dropbacks, catching 7-of-9 targets for 58 yards.

Over the past two weeks, Robinson has had 13 receptions for 177 yards. He had nine catches for 60 yards in 2022.

Never would have 2022 Brian Robinson survived a week without a touchdown, and this past week he was a top-10 scorer without a trip to the end zone.

Gibson was able to log a limited practice on Monday, so that usage could have been a one-off based on circumstances.

The matchup is also worse with Robinson as a significant road underdog.

Dallas has allowed 3.78 YPC to running backs (eighth) and 10.5 rushing points per game this season to backfields (11th).

They also are allowing 7.1 receiving points per game to backs (ninth).

If Gibson is back this week, Robinson will return to a touchdown-based RB2.

Should Gibson sit out another game during a short week, Robinson would get a lift based on projected volume in the passing game.

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Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb (TRUST): Lamb also cooled off a touch with the overall passing game lacking output against Carolina.

Lamb only managed 38 yards on his six catches (nine targets), but he managed to catch his fifth touchdown of the season to elevate his fantasy line.

Lamb also added a seven-yard rush. It is not much to rely on, but Lamb now has a rushing attempt in three of his past four games, with one going for a score.

The Cowboys continued to use Lamb diversely, which has been one of the best developments this offense has made throughout the season.

Lamb played another 47.3% of his snaps on the outside.

Over the past five weeks, Lamb has played 47.2% of his snaps on the outside as opposed to a 31.4% rate over his opening five games.

Over this five-game stretch, Lamb has 3.01 yards per route on the outside to go along with 3.59 yards per route from the slot.

He is the only player averaging 3.0 yards per route run both inside and out over that stretch.

Not to mention, Lamb now leads the NFL with 14 end zone targets.

Like Prescott, Lamb runs into one of the premier matchups we have circled for lead wideouts all season.

Washington is allowing 9.7 yards per target (31st), 14.9 yards per catch (30th), and a league-high 6.9% touchdown rate to opposing wide receivers.

They are allowing a league-high 21.0 points per game to opposing WR1 targets.


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