The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 13 matchup between the Jaguars and Bengals on Monday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 13 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
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- The Jaguars are 7-2 against the point spread over their past nine games, tied for the best rate in the league over that span.
- The Bengals are averaging 1.2 fewer yards per rushing play than their opponents, the worst differential in the league.
- Cincinnati is averaging 1.7 fewer yards per passing play than their opponent, 31st in the NFL.
- The Bengals are allowing a gain of 20 or more yards every 11.8 plays, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bengals are averaging 2.6 plays per game that gain 20 or more yards, 28th in the league.
- The Jaguars are averaging 3.5 plays per game that gain 20 or more yards, 23rd in the league.
- 22.5% of the Jacksonville rushing plays have failed to gain yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- 29.8% of the rushing plays against the Bengals have resulted in a first down or touchdown, 31st in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has delivered for gamers as QB1 (32.2 points) and QB6 (24.6 points) the past two weeks, his two best games of the season.
Lawrence threw for a season-high 364 yards on Sunday against the Texans.
He was pressured on just 15.8% of his dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in the league last week.
Getting to Lawrence is the way to disrupt this passing game.
When Lawrence has been kept clean, he is completing 72.4% of his passes with seven touchdowns and two interceptions.
When pressured, Lawrence is completing 48.1% of his passes with five touchdowns and five interceptions.
Lawrence gets a strong spot to keep rolling as a QB1.
The Bengals are allowing a league-high 8.1 yards per pass attempt and 12.7 yards per completion.
They ended a three-game streak in allowing QB1 scores last week, but they still allowed Kenny Pickett to have the best game of his season, throwing for 8.4 Y/A and completing 72.7% of his passes. Pickett just did not throw a touchdown pass.
The one thing saving the Bengals a bit is that their run defense is even worse than their pass defense right now.
Because they are getting crushed on the ground, they have allowed a 3.3% touchdown rate to passers, eighth in the league.
Jake Browning: Making his first career start since entering the league in 2019, Browning was QB18 (11.9 points).
To be fair to Browning, he was better than several backup performers we have had this season.
Browning was 19-of-26 passing (73.1%) for 227 yards (8.7 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
He rushed three times for nine yards.
But Browning’s completion rate was manufactured to a degree.
He averaged only 5.1 air yards per attempt (26th). Only 38.5% of his passes were five or more yards downfield (28th) with 7.7% of those attempts 15 yards or further (30th).
If forced to lean on Browning in 2QB formats or looking to throw a dart in single-game DFS, the Jaguars are 21st in the league in defending throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (94.1 rating).
Travis Etienne (TRUST): Etienne has not been inside the top 20 scorers in any of his three games since the Week 9 bye.
He rushed 20 times for 56 yards (2.8 YPC) on Sunday, catching 4-of-6 passes for 30 yards.
Etienne left the game for a spell with a chest injury, but in a competitive game, we saw that he still handled 72.7% of the backfield touches.
We have been highlighting for weeks how this running game has struggled, and Etienne had been living solely on touchdown production.
He had two goal-line touches last week, but Houston stopped him on both.
Etienne has not rushed for 4.0 yards per carry in a game since Week 5.
Over that span, he is 35th out of 38 backs in yards per carry (3.3 YPC).
While that is not a great lead-in for a player to get excited about, this Cincinnati run defense has been an elixir for rushing struggles.
The Bengals are allowing 4.64 YPC to running backs (30th) with a first down or touchdown on 27.2% of those carries (31st).
They are 31st in explosive run rate allowed (14.9%).
Joe Mixon: Mixon was barely holding on as a touchdown-dependent RB2 when this offense was at its best under Joe Burrow.
Without Burrow last week, Mixon rushed eight times for 16 yards, catching two passes for 44 yards.
Mixon has reached 70 yards from scrimmage in just two of his past six games.
Things do not get easier here as Jacksonville has allowed 3.58 YPC to running backs (fifth) and a league-low 7.0 rushing points per game to backfields.
If looking for a path to success for Mixon as a volume-based RB2, the Jaguars continue to give up receiving production to backs.
Devin Singletary caught six passes for 54 yards against them last week, and they are allowing 12.7 receiving points per game to backs (31st).
Running backs have 29.6% of the receptions against Jacksonville this season, the highest rate in the league.
Ja’Marr Chase: Chase was WR33 last week in his first game without Burrow, catching 4-of-6 targets for 81 yards.
His afternoon was highlighted by a 31-yard catch and run on a tipped pass, his first of two receptions that were batted up in the air by defenders.
We were worried that the transition to Browning would place Chase in a similar bucket to where we have been handling Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams this season. When you only have six targets and half of your receptions were potential pass break-ups, those concerns were validated.
Chase is a volatile WR2 attached to Browning.
It is hard to see Chase having a consistent ceiling as a WR1 without Burrow, so we are going to need more volume than we had a week ago.
The good news is that the matchup is solid if we can get a spike in targets.
Jacksonville is allowing 9.3 yards per target (26th) and a 7.1% touchdown rate (31st) to outside wide receivers, where Chase still was for 83% of his snaps on Sunday.
Calvin Ridley: After being held without a catch on one target in the first half on Sunday, it looked as if we were headed for another down week from Ridley in a season of highs and lows.
Ridley then bounced back to catch 5-of-5 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown after the break.
Ridley has posted back-to-back WR1 scoring weeks for the first time this season.
Ridley still only had a 16.2% target share, so we are surely not out of the woods with Ridley as a boom-or-bust WR2, but he continues to draw the targets that offer fantasy upside.
Despite the volatility this year, Ridley has the two-highest scores for these Jacksonville wide receivers this season and four of the top five games.
Ridley has 35.5% of the red zone targets (WR6) and 48.0% of the end zone targets (WR2).
He also has 42.5% of the team targets on throws 20 or more yards downfield (WR12).
Ridley gets another favorable matchup for explosive plays.
The Bengals are allowing 9.6 yards per target to outside wide receivers, which is 29th in the league.
Their saving grace is that they have limited touchdowns, allowing a 1.6% touchdown rate on those targets, second in the NFL.
Christian Kirk: Kirk snagged 4-of-7 targets for 89 yards against Houston, highlighted by a season-long 57-yard catch and run that left him short of the goal line right before halftime.
Kirk has now had more than four receptions in just two of his past six games.
He has not scored since Week 7, getting out-targeted 11-ot-5 by Ridley in the red zone and 12-to-4 in the end zone.
Even with his limited playing time, Zay Jones has more end-zone targets (five) than Kirk.
Kirk is on the WR2/WR3 for fantasy, holding the highest floor of the Jacksonville wideouts.
Zay Jones: Jones has returned as the WR58 (4-20-0) and WR106 (1-10-0) since coming back two weeks ago.
He has run a route on 77.1% and 60.5% of the team dropbacks.
Going back to last season, Jones has posted fewer than 60 yards receiving in nine of his past 13 games played.
Jones is a touchdown-dependent FLEX best left for single-game DFS.
Tee Higgins: Higgins has missed the past three games due to a hamstring injury and will now return to offense absent Joe Burrow.
Higgins already was a boom-or-bust WR2 playing Burrow, so this adds more gasoline to his volatility.
Higgins has two top-10 scoring weeks this season while finishing as the WR37 or lower in each of his other games played.
He has run just six career routes without Burrow on the field, so we are equally in the dark about setting a baseline for expectations.
Higgins is a volatile WR3/FLEX until we have a better gauge of what Browning brings to the table.
Higgins is playing 84% of his snaps on the outside to give him access to the matchup notes highlighted earlier with Chase.
Tyler Boyd: Boyd has been WR62 (3-22-0) and WR78 (3-23-0) the past two weeks with Burrow exiting early and then absent.
With Higgins returning on top of working without Burrow, he is best left for single-game DFS as a low-ceiling fantasy option.
Evan Engram: Pulling in 5-of-8 targets for 49 yards, Engram continued to operate as a floor-based TE1 with an added boost in full-PPR and TE Premium formats.
We are still chasing that first touchdown of the season from Engram. He did receive his first “target” of the season in the end zone on Sunday, but it was an uncatchable ball that sailed out of the back of the end zone.
Engram was not able to deliver a spike week in a favorable matchup last week, but he gets another chance this week.
The Bengals just allowed the ghost of Pat Freiermuth to catch nine passes for 120 yards on Sunday.
They have allowed a TE1 scorer in four of their past five games to George Kittle (9-149-0), Dalton Kincaid (10-81-0), Dalton Schultz (4-71-0), and Freiermuth last week.
Tight ends have scored 21.9% of the points allowed by the Bengals, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
Bengals TEs: This is a unit best saved for single-game DFS since Cincinnati is playing a triumvirate of Irv Smith, Tanner Hudson, and Drew Sample.
Smith ran 13 pass routes last week. Hudson ran 12, and Sample ran 11.
Sample scored the touchdown among the group, but it was Hudson who led the group with five targets.
Hudson caught four of them for 18 yards, giving him four straight games with four catches.