The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 5 matchup between the Commanders and Browns.
Find a breakdown of every Week 5 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Cleveland | Rank | @ | Washington | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 24 | ||
| 16.5 | 27 | Points/Gm | 30.3 | 3 |
| 21.8 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 25.5 | 25 |
| 63.8 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 62.3 | 13 |
| 59.8 | 12 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 57.5 | 7 |
| 3.9 | 32 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 4 |
| 5 | 9 | Def. Yards/Play | 6.2 | 31 |
| 34.51% | 31 | Rush% | 53.82% | 3 |
| 65.49% | 2 | Pass% | 46.18% | 30 |
| 44.77% | 20 | Opp. Rush % | 45.22% | 21 |
| 55.23% | 13 | Opp. Pass % | 54.78% | 12 |
- Washington averages 5.8 scoring plays per game, tied for the league lead.
- Cleveland is averaging 2.8 scoring plays per game, 30th in the league.
- 58.8% of the Washington drives have reached the red zone or scored prior, the highest rate in the league.
- 15.2% of the Cleveland drives have reached the red zone or scored prior, the lowest rate in the league.
- Washington averages a first down or touchdown every 2.8 plays on offense, the highest rate in the league.
- Washington has punted the ball on 11.8% of their drives, the lowest rate in the league.
- Cleveland has punted on 50.0% of their drives, 31st in the league.
- Washington allows a first down or touchdown every 2.8 plays on defense, the highest rate in the league.
- The Browns average a first down or touchdown every 4.3 plays on offense, which is 29th in the league.
- Washington has converted a league-high 53.5% (23-of-43) of their third downs.
- Cleveland has converted a league-low 20.8% (11-of-53) of their third downs.
- Cleveland averages 1.4 yards per play fewer on early downs (first and second) than its opponents, the worst differential in the league.
- The Browns have trailed for 78.9% of their second-half snaps on offense, ahead of only the Rams and Dolphins.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels: Daniels completed one of the best opening months for a rookie quarterback on Sunday, completing 26-of-30 (86.7%) passes for 233 yards (7.8 Y/A) with a touchdown, adding 47 yards and a rushing touchdown in Arizona.
He did throw his first career interception, but Daniels ended the week as QB5 (24.0 points), his third top-5 scoring week to open the year.
By now, you have heard that his 82.1% completion rate is the highest for a quarterback over their first four games and for any quarterback over an isolated 4-game stretch.
Daniels’ expected completion rate is the highest (73.4%), but he has completed 8.7% more than expected.
Although he has only thrown 26.4% of his passes 10 or more yards downfield (26th), Daniels has completed a league-high 71.4% of those (20-of-28), compared to the 47.0% league average.
We have been looking for another player who can combine rushing ability with passing acumen in fantasy.
Daniels has already established himself as a fantasy QB1.
While we are plugging Daniels in, we do have to acknowledge that he has had arguably the most manageable schedule for any quarterback to open the season.
That is not a negative since he did what we expect good players to do in those matchups.
These next two weeks (Washington plays in Baltimore next week) will be more challenging in providing us with a more accurate baseline measurement.
If he hits here and next week, he can already move into the fantasy conversation with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson, our best dual-threat fantasy options.
As efficient as Daniels has been, he is QB15 in passing points per attempt (0.433).
76.9% (10-of-13) of the Washington touchdowns have come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
Daniels gets a piece of those rushing scores, but if we do run into a week in which he fails to run in a touchdown, we are counting on passing scores rising.
Cleveland has not faced a daunting rogue’s gallery of opposing passers (Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones, and Gardner Minshew in the past three games).
Still, we know this is a better defense than the Giants, Bengals, and Cardinals.
I am not moving off Daniels in seasonal leagues, but this will be a spot where I proceed with some caution in DFS compared to the year’s opening month.
Cleveland’s aggressive nature also should create opportunities for Daniels to use his legs.
The Browns are 6th in pressure rate (38.5%), 3rd in rate of man coverage on passing plays (41.7%), and 4th in blitz rate (31.9%).
Daniels has a league-high 39.5% scramble rate when pressured (the next closest player is 21.4%) and a 17.2% scramble rate against man coverage. He has a league-high six scrambles when blitzed.
Deshaun Watson: Watson completed a season-high 75% (24-of-32) of his passes on Sunday, but it hardly mattered since this offense is so broken.
Even when a few things went right, they went wrong.
Cleveland had an 82-yard touchdown to Amari Cooper come off the board due to a penalty, and then Cooper bricked another pass on the numbers that resulted in an interception.
Watson only threw for 176 yards (5.5 Y/A).
He has yet to pass for 200 yards in a game this season.
Against a Raider team that was 31st in the league in pressure rate and was missing Maxx Crosby, Watson was still pressured on 38.1% of his dropbacks last week.
Watson is 24th in inaccurate throw rate (11.5%), while the Browns are 31st in the league with 11 dropped passes, which is quite a cocktail.
From Watson himself, the offensive line, the underperforming pass catchers, and the coaching staff running a stale offense, this is an offense we cannot trust.
Watson is giving 2QB gamers usable scores because he is rushing for 30 yards per game, but we cannot even stream him in 1QB formats in a matchup we have targeted since the start of last season.
Watson should get David Njoku back this week, but this offensive line remains a huge issue.
The best argument I can make for hunting for a spike week from Watson is that Daniel Jones was a QB1 against Washington.
Even with last week’s Arizona showing, Washington still allows the most passing points per game (19.3).
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet and all of Rich’s regular content, including positional rankings, DFS picks, and chats, click below to learn more about our fantasy package
Learn More
More Week 5 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bucs @ Falcons -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Jets @ Vikings | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET (London) |
| Panthers @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Steelers | Sunday Night Football |
| Saints @ Chiefs -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
