Falcons vs. Bucs Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 5

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 5 matchup between the Falcons and Bucs on Thursday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 5 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield exits September as the QB3 in overall scoring, finishing as QB2, QB5, QB28, and QB2 in weekly scoring.

He is coming off season highs in completions (30), attempts (47), and yards (347) through the air against the Eagles to go along with a pair of passing touchdowns and his second rushing score of the season.

Liam Coen has Mayfield getting the ball out quicker than he did under Dave Canales.

57.0% of Mayfield’s passes have come within 2.5 seconds of the snap, which would be a career-high. His career rate is 46.9%.

Mayfield is averaging a league-low 5.5 air yards per pass attempt after 8.6 air yards per throw a year ago. After throwing 14.0% of his passes 20 or more yards downfield last season, that rate has been cut in half (7.0%).

From a clean pocket, Mayfield is fourth in the NFL with a 111.9 rating, completing 74.0% (QB12) of his passes for 8.1 yards per pass attempt (10th). He is tied for the league lead with 7 touchdowns.

When teams have been able to get to him, he has been impacted.

Under pressure, Mayfield has completed 56.0% of his passes, still 10th in the league, but his 5.7 yards per attempt fall to 20th in the league.

That should not be a pressing issue here.

Atlanta is 24th in the league in pressure rate (29.9%) and dead last in sack rate (3.0%).

That is despite a 31.0% blitz rate on passing plays, sixth in the league.

Atlanta has played passively under Raheem Morris, playing man coverage on 16.7% of passing plays (27th).

Mayfield has been better against zone, completing 72.2% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt against zone coverages, but his touchdown rate against zone (3.8%) is a drop from his 11.4% rate against man coverage.

For the issues that Atlanta has had rushing the passer, they have played a “bend but don’t break” pass defense.

They are seventh in passing points allowed per attempt (0.295) and eighth in passing points allowed per game (9.5). They have faced Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Derek Carr.

I still prefer to use Mayfield as a floor-based QB2 here and let the spike week come if we get it, but I would not heavily oppose anyone riding with him as a lower-end QB1 in 1QB formats.

Kirk Cousins: Atlanta has found some footing as offense after their brutal season opener, but that has not equaled fantasy points for Cousins.

Through four games, Cousins has one week finishing higher than QB23.

Cousins has not thrown for more than 241 yards in a game yet, but three of his four games have come against the Steelers, Chiefs, and Saints, teams that have played strong defense outside their matchup with Atlanta.

The Bucs have done an excellent job defensively despite working through several injuries.

They sit fifth in passing points allowed per game (8.7) and third in passing points allowed per attempt (0.239).

They are still blitzing heavily under Todd Bowles, ranking fourth in blitz rate (35.8%)

Against the blitz, Cousins is 27th in yards per pass attempt (5.1) with a 3.3% touchdown rate (23rd).

What has killed the Bucs from a fantasy stance is that they have allowed a bunch of rushing points to quarterbacks, something Cousins does not have in his arsenal anymore.

Cousins is a QB2 for fantasy this week.

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Running Back

Bijan Robinson: Sunday was a mixed bag for Robinson.

He averaged 6.7 yards per touch and had a touchdown get called back on a questionable hold, but he also touched the ball a season-low 11 times.

After handling 88.5%, 64.3%, and 72.0% of the backfield touches in the first three games, Robinson handled 52.4% on Sunday.

Tyler Allgeier remains a thorn and has been the better rusher the past two weeks.

Allgeier has rushed 15 times for 92 yards in the past two games while Robinson has rushed for 69 yards on 23 attempts.

Allgeier is still not getting enough opportunities to be more than a touchdown-dependent fantasy swing, but he is impacting Robinson’s ceiling.

We are four weeks in, and Robinson is still without an RB1 scoring week.

Robinson was dealing with a shoulder injury heading into Sunday’s game, and the Falcons were without Drew Dalman and Kaleb McGary.

His usage last week could be happenstance, but on a short week, we should expect Allgeier to be involved again while the offensive line’s health is still a question mark.

You are not going away from Robinson, and this matchup offers a path for upside.

Tampa Bay allows 5.1 yards per carry to running backs (27th) with a 59.4% success rate against those runs (21st).

Robinson remains active in the passing game, which has been a soft spot for Tampa Bay. They have allowed 12.6 receiving points per game to backs, which is 29th in the league.

The Bucs are 29th in points allowed per touch to running backs (1.09).

Buccaneer RBs: Bucky Irving continued to cut into Rachaad White’s usage as this backfield careens towards a timeshare.

White played 44 snaps (12 touches), while Irving played 30 snaps (11 touches).

Both players ran the ball 10 times for 49 yards.

I have been dismissive of Irving having much standalone value in this split since he has not been an active pass catcher or used near the goal line, but he worked into both areas on Sunday for the first time.

Irving only caught one pass for six yards (White caught two for 35 yards), but the usage was tighter.

White ran 23 routes while Irving ran 17.

Irving also handled all four backfield touches inside the 10-yard line, cashing one in for his first rushing score of the season.

This backfield has all of the makings of having some fluidity. Both of these backs could end up interchangeable to the point where Tampa Bay rides the hotter player in the game, which is a bit of a short-term nightmare for fantasy gamers.

I am handling both backs here as RB3/FLEX options for Week 5.

Atlanta has played the run well, allowing 4.0 yards per carry to running backs (9th) while also ranking ninth in rushing points allowed per game to backs (10.9).

They are 13th in receiving points allowed per game (7.8) to the position.

Wide Receiver

Chris Godwin (TRUST): Godwin nicely caught 6-of-9 targets for 69 yards on Sunday.

He has 6 or more receptions in all four games this season.

He is tied for seventh among wide receivers in targets (34), third in receptions (27), and sixth in yardage (322).

Godwin is averaging only 6.1 air yards per target (WR91), but that has allowed him access to more opportunity in Liam Coen’s offense, giving him a lift in full-PPR formats.

Godwin’s slot role gives him another matchup advantage this week.

Atlanta is 26th in points allowed per game to slot receivers (16.8). They have allowed 50% of the receptions to receivers to come via the slot, the sixth-highest rate in the league.

All three touchdowns scored by wideouts against Atlanta have come from the slot.

Atlanta is playing Cover 3 on 41.7% of passing snaps, sixth in the NFL. Godwin leads the team with 27.8% of the targets facing Cover 3, posting 3.34 yards per route run.

Mike Evans: Evans entered last week in a spot to get fed as a squeaky wheel, which is precisely what happened.

He had a season-high 14 targets, grabbing 8 for 94 yards and his third touchdown.

Evans had 15 targets over the opening three games.

The Bucs have a thin target tree, with Evans and Godwin accounting for 49.3% of the team targets.

This team still has question marks running the football, so there is plenty of weekly opportunity for Evans and Godwin to coexist as viable WR2 options with weekly upside for more.

I do prefer Godwin here based on the matchup.

Evans plays 75% of his snaps on the outside, and Atlanta is 11th in points allowed to boundary wide receivers.

Drake London: London snagged 6-of-12 targets for 64 yards Sunday against the Saints.

While London has yet to reach 70 yards in a game this season, he has received steady targets since the season opener. He has 24.1%, 33.3%, and 35.3% of the team targets in the past three games.

Atlanta has moved London around more to get him more involved.

He has set a new season high in rate of snaps from the slot in the past two weeks (37.5% and 47.1%) after rates of 30% and 17.9% to open the year.

That could help him as a volume-based WR2.

The Bucs only allow 5.4 yards per target to wide receivers out wide (2nd in the league) but are 22nd in receptions allowed per game to slot receivers (5.3).

The other thing helping London here is that he has 46.4% of the team targets against the blitz.

Darnell Mooney: Mooney secured 3-of-6 targets for 56 yards on Sunday.

He has opened the season with weeks as WR90, WR18, WR27, and WR50, leaving him as a WR4/FLEX.

Mooney is the secondary target in this offense; however, consistently out-targeting Kyle Pitts.

Mooney has 21.2% of the team targets and has run a route on 98.4% of the team dropbacks.

20.8% of his targets are on throws 20 or more yards downfield, which is a team high.

If someone is going to hit a big play in this passing game, Mooney is the best bet.

Tampa Bay has allowed 3-of-7 targets to wideouts on deep throws to be complete so far this season.

Ray-Ray McCloud: McCloud caught 6-of-7 targets for 52 yards on Sunday.

He has yet to have more than 52 yards in a game, but McCloud is tied for second on the team with 15 receptions.

He has not finished a week as a top 36 scorer, but he does have three weeks as a WR4 or better in full-PPR formats if you are hunting for a floor-based FLEX in those formats.

Bucs WRs: With Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer trending toward being out on a short week, the ghost of Sterling Shepard is set to play a lot.

Shepard is only a dart throw in single-game DFS, but he should be on the field for an inherently pass-heavy team.

Shepard ran 33 routes last week (75.6% of the dropbacks after Palmer left the game with a concussion), catching 3-of-5 targets for 51 yards.

Tight End

Kyle Pitts: Pitts was shut out on Sunday, failing to secure any of his three targets.

Pitts has 8 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown over the season’s opening month, earning a target on only 15.0% of his routes with 13.3% of the team targets.

He has gone over 26 yards once this season.

Pitts has not had more than 3 catches in a game since Week 13 of last season.

He has not had more than 4 catches in a game since Week 5 of last season.

I was willing to give Pitts a hall pass for the past two seasons, filled with injuries and limited usage under Arthur Smith, but he is becoming the common denominator for the continued struggles.

He is just not getting open or a natural part of this offense.

Pitts has not shown the explosion he had as a rookie.

It is wild to consider a 23-year-old player with his upside as a prospect wholly done, but what can we do right now with a mounting sample of him failing to earn targets?

We need production to regain confidence in his ability.

Pitts also only has 10.7% of the team targets against the blitz, a lower rate than all of London (46.4%), Mooney (25.0%), and McCloud (17.9%).

The best thing we can say about Pitts is that he’s been on the field for 80% of the team dropbacks, which is TE8 on the year.

What can we do?

Not a lot.

You can’t sell high on Pitts.

You can drop him for therapeutic reasons, but the replacements are probably in the same bucket.

Pitts is in what feels like a bottomless bucket of touchdown-dependent tight ends for fantasy.

Tampa Bay has allowed 16-of-22 targets to be caught by tight ends for 152 yards and no touchdowns to start the year.

Cade Otton: Otton has been active the past two weeks, posting games of 7-47-0 (8 targets) and 6-52-0 (9 targets).

Otton has run a route on 86.8% of the team dropbacks (TE3) and is now tied for fourth among tight ends with 21 targets on the year.

Otton is not sexy (0.79 yards per route run) and better as a floor-based option in full-PPR and TE-Premium formats, but he is on the field and getting the football, which is something to be said for any tight end in the current climate.

Otton has been targeted on 18.9% of his routes against zone coverage compared to 11.8% against man coverage, giving him another path to opportunities on Thursday night.

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