The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 5 matchup between the Jaguars and Colts.
Find a breakdown of every Week 5 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Indianapolis | Rank | @ | Jacksonville | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 21.75 | Implied Total | 24.25 | ||
| 21.3 | 16 | Points/Gm | 15.0 | 29 |
| 21.3 | 14 | Points All./Gm | 27.3 | 30 |
| 53.5 | 32 | Plays/Gm | 57.8 | 26 |
| 73.8 | 32 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.5 | 28 |
| 6.1 | 5 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 22 |
| 5.4 | 20 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 29 |
| 49.07% | 11 | Rush% | 38.10% | 27 |
| 50.93% | 22 | Pass% | 61.90% | 6 |
| 51.19% | 26 | Opp. Rush % | 42.25% | 10 |
| 48.81% | 7 | Opp. Pass % | 57.75% | 23 |
- Jacksonville averages 114.3 fewer passing yards per game than their opponents, ahead of only the Patriots (-141.8).
- The Jaguars average 1.2 more yards per rushing play (5.7 yards) than passing play (4.5 yards), the worst differential in the league.
- The Jaguars have converted 25.0% (11-of-44) of their third downs, 30th in the league, ahead of only the Broncos (24.6%) and Browns (20.8%).
- The Colts have forced a three-and-out on a league-low 18.6% of drives by their opponent.
- 74.8% of the set of downs against the Colts result in a new first down or touchdown (26th).
- 75.7% of the set of downs against the Jaguars result in a new first down or touchdown (28th).
- The Jaguars are averaging a league-low 39.5 offensive touches per game.
- The Colts are 31st, with 40.0 offensive touches per game.
- The Colts are averaging 20.3 fewer plays per game than their opponents, the most significant differential in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence (TRUST): Lawrence has struggled as much as any quarterback this season.
He does not have a QB1 scoring week yet on the season and has not had one since Week 13 of last season.
He is only above Anthony Richardson in completion rate (53.3%) and ahead of only Richardson and Bryce Young in completion rate below expectations (-8.5%).
The Jaguars are still hitting big plays; they (Lawrence) need to be better at hitting the easy plays.
Lawrence has the highest inaccurate throw rate on throws shorter than 10 yards downfield (9.9%) while the league average on those passes is 5.5%.
He takes a significant step of faith to use in 1QB leagues, but I believe this will be his best game to open the season.
He can be streamed for someone like Patrick Mahomes or used as a fill-in for Jalen Hurts (bye), Jared Goff (bye), or Anthony Richardson should he not play this week.
As poor as Lawrence has been, he has completed 25-of-36 passes (69.4%) for 8.5 yards per pass attempt against Cover 3 this season.
The Colts are once again one of the heaviest users of Cover 3 under Gus Bradley (47.2% of passing plays).
Lawrence has been a QB1 scorer in all four career games against Bradley.
In those four games, the Colts have played Cover 3 58.5% of the time, the highest rate against any opponent they have faced multiple times.
Lawrence has completed 78.3% of his passes on those plays.
The Colts put their third defensive lineman on injured reserve this week and are already 20th in pressure rate (32.2% of dropbacks).
As a top-down pass defense, the Colts are 23rd in passing points allowed per attempt (0.464) and 27th in passing points allowed per game (15.3).
Colts QB: Anthony Richardson was out to a hot start on Sunday.
Set to lead his second scoring drive to open the game, Richardson took a shot to the hip and ribs area on a scramble.
Leaving the field for a few plays, he re-entered, and the Colts called a designed run for him, on which Minkah Fitzpatrick laid a big hit to end his afternoon.
I do place some of the blame on Sunday on Shane Steichen for the timing of placing Richardson in that situation immediately coming back into the game.
Still, Richardson has now started eight NFL games and has exited four of them early.
Diagnosed with a hip pointer and oblique strain, Richardson is expected to have avoided significant injury, but his status for this week will be up in the air.
If Richardson does play, he is at risk of re-injury and is a boom-or-bust QB1 in a good matchup.
If Richardson cannot play, Joe Flacco would be in line for his first start with the Colts.
Flacco completed 16-of-26 (61.5%) of his passes for 168 yards (6.5 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns against a stiffer Pittsburgh defense than what either passer will face here.
Ryan Nielsen finally received the memo and dialed back the man coverage last week (only 9.5% of passing plays), but it still did not matter.
The Jaguars are 31st in passing points allowed per game (18.4) and 29th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.517).
They have faced good quarterbacks in C.J. Stroud, Josh Allen, and Tua Tagovailoa, but they also allowed a QB1 scoring week to Deshaun Watson.
That is the other element that would make this matchup appealing for Richardson (if he is mobile).
The Jaguars are also 22nd in rushing points allowed per game to quarterbacks (3.8 per game).
Should Flacco start, he is a potential streamer in all formats since this game has plenty of shootout upside.
It was a different system, but Flacco threw for 311 yards and 3 touchdowns against Jacksonville last season with the Browns.
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet and all of Rich’s regular content, including positional rankings, DFS picks, and chats, click below to learn more about our fantasy package
Learn More
More Week 5 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bucs @ Falcons -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Jets @ Vikings | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET (London) |
| Panthers @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Steelers | Sunday Night Football |
| Saints @ Chiefs -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
