The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 5 matchup between the Jets and Vikings.
Find a breakdown of every Week 5 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| NY Jets | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 19.0 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 19.0 | 21 | Points/Gm | 29.0 | 4 |
| 15.5 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 14.8 | 4 |
| 61.3 | 15 | Plays/Gm | 57.3 | 28 |
| 58.5 | 8 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 68.0 | 30 |
| 4.8 | 25 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.0 | 7 |
| 4.4 | 2 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 12 |
| 40.41% | 21 | Rush% | 48.91% | 12 |
| 59.59% | 12 | Pass% | 51.09% | 21 |
| 47.86% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 29.04% | 1 |
| 52.14% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 70.96% | 32 |
- The Vikings have led for 85.9% of their offensive snaps, the highest rate in the league.
- Minnesota is the final remaining team that has yet to run a play trailing in the second half this season.
- The Vikings have led by double-digits for a league-high 52.6% of their offensive snaps. The next closest team is at 35.8%.
- 84.6% (11-of-13) of Minnesota’s touchdowns have come via passing, the highest rate in the league.
- Minnesota is averaging a league-high 6.8 sacks plus takeaways per game on defense.
- The Vikings allow 1.26 points per drive, which is fourth in the league.
- The Jets allow 1.44 points per drive, which is sixth in the league.
- The Jets allow 4.0 yards per play on first downs, the fewest in the league
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Sam Darnold: Darnold continues to live his best life, completing 20-of-28 (71.4%) passes for 275 yards (9.8) with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception on Sunday.
Darnold has now reeled off three straight top-10 scoring weeks. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all four games.
We can queue the Aaron Paul meme for the passing scores inevitably coming down, but Darnold’s 8.8 yards per pass attempt are second in the NFL while his 12.8 yards per completion are fourth.
Darnold has a touchdown on a league-high 10.4% of his passes. The next closest passer is at 6.9%.
For added context, Brock Purdy led the NFL with a 7.0% rate in 2023.
Darnold has thrown 5.8 touchdowns over expectations. The next closest passer (Baker Mayfield) has thrown 2.5 more than expected.
Even if Darnold is this year’s Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, or even close to Purdy from a year ago, that touchdown rate is coming down eventually.
This would be a good spot for those lofty touchdown rates to regress against the team that drafted him.
The Jets are fifth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.279) with a 1.9% touchdown rate allowed (5th) to open the year.
They have not had to face a viable passer since Week 1 when they allowed Purdy a QB24 week (10.3 points).
They also led the league in passing points allowed in the previous two seasons, which gives them some cachet.
The Jets are fourth in pressure rate (39.5%), which is still a bugaboo for Darnold.
He has completed 76.0% of his passes for 10.0 yards per attempt from a clean pocket compared to 51.6% for 5.9 yards per attempt when pressured.
I believe Darnold will end the season in contention to be a QB2 for more weeks than not.
I would prefer to use Darnold as a QB2 here, but if he continues to produce in more challenging assignments, this will be the last week that I say that.
Aaron Rodgers: After back-to-back weeks as a QB1 scorer, Rodgers had season lows in completion rate (57.1%) and yards per pass attempt (5.4) on Sunday without a touchdown.
Rodgers did have a season-high 26 rushing yards, but he could not succeed in the rain against a Denver defense that has been stingy to open the season.
Things do not get easier here from a matchup stance.
Minnesota gave up some production to Jordan Love in a jailbreak game script last week, but even with that factored in, the Vikings have allowed 6.8 yards per pass attempt (12th) and a 62.3% completion rate (9th).
Love was the first QB1 scorer Minnesota allowed this season, and he needed 54 pass attempts to get there.
That includes games against Brock Purdy (14.0 points) and C.J. Stroud (9.8 points).
Rodgers is a mid-range QB2.
Running Back
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More Week 5 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bucs @ Falcons -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Jets @ Vikings | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET (London) |
| Panthers @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Steelers | Sunday Night Football |
| Saints @ Chiefs -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
