The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday afternoon game on September 6, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
  • The Chiefs’ 6.82 yards per play in 2018 were the highest a team has posted for a full season since the Rams in 2000 (6.96).
  • Kansas City ranked first in yards gained per possession (41.2 yards) while they also ranked last in yards allowed per opponent’s possession (39.1 yards).
  • The Chiefs led the NFL in red zone touchdowns with 51 in 2018. Defensively, they allowed 41 red zone touchdowns, the second-most in the league behind Tampa Bay (45).
  • The Jaguars scored a touchdown on just 12.4 percent of their possessions in 2018, the lowest rate in the league. League average outside of them was 23.9 percent. 
  • Tyreek Hill has led the league in touchdowns of 35-yards or longer all three seasons he has been in the league with 20, 10 more than the next highest player. 
  • Jacksonville has ranked first (seven) and third (nine) in touchdown receptions allowed to opposing wide receivers over the past two seasons.
  • Over the past four seasons, no tight end has run more pass routes than Travis Kelce, ranking seventh, fifth, first, and second in overall routes run per season over that span.

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Travis Kelce: The majority of Kelce’s best moments in 2018 came during Tyreek Hill’s lowest. In the seven games in which Hill was WR30 or lower, Kelce averaged 10.1 targets, 7.1 receptions for 93.4 yards., and 19.6 PPR points per game. That included Week 5 against Jacksonville in which Kelce caught 5-of-8 targets for 100 yards.
  • Leonard Fournette: Entering the season with three-down opportunity and the best catching-opportunity he’s had to start his career, Fournette runs into a positive opening season outlook. Kansas City ranked 29th in rushing points allowed (16.6) and 27th in receiving points allowed (13.6) per game to opposing backfields in 2018.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Damien Williams: Williams averaged 114.4 yards from scrimmage with nine total touchdowns and 25.4 PPR fantasy points per game over his five starts to close 2018. He did all that while averaging just 18.6 touches per game over that span, with 15 or fewer touches in three of those five games.  15 touches should still be well within grasp to open the season with LeSean McCoy not having a full week with the team.

    Given the new potential for a timeshare in this backfield and the matchup, we want to focus on the pass catcher of the group. Williams had at least five receptions in four of his five starts, with the only game with fewer than five catches was in Week 17 when the Chiefs starters didn’t play a full game.


    With Tyreek Hill occupying the best Jacksonville defender, the options outside of him are the targets while the Chiefs have shown to have a narrow usage tree. We’ll need to see how McCoy and
    Darwin Thompson are used before considering either as more than dart throws.
  • Sammy Watkins: Watkins also runs into a difficult task overall, but his expected bar is much lower than the rest of this offense. In the 10 full games Watkins played in 2018, he commanded 20.8 percent of the team targets and averaged 13.9 PPR points per game. That includes catching 6-of-8 targets for 78 yards in this matchup a year ago.
  • Dede Westbrook: Westbrook led the league in routes run from the slot in 2018 (493) while he ranked fourth in receptions while lined up inside. Nick Foles threw to the slot 36.4 percent of the time in 2018, the highest rate of any quarterback behind Andrew Luck. The only potential rain cloud is the slot is also where the Chiefs’ best cornerback – Kendall Fuller – also plays, but Westbrook is a WR3 option with upside in a game that should force Jacksonville to play more aggressive than they will in most weeks.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Patrick Mahomes: The Jaguars have ranked second and first in passing points allowed over the past two seasons and have allowed multiple touchdown passes in five and four games over those seasons. Mahomes’s lowest-scoring week (15.8 points) and lowest weekly finish (QB17) came at home against the Jaguars last season. It was the only game in which he failed to throw a touchdown pass. You aren’t going to bench him by any means, but his standards of production are higher than the 15-18 point range he could fall into here.
  • Tyreek Hill: The same goes for Hill. He only needs one play to erupt and no player in the league is more capable of generating splash plays than Hill. That leaves him in your lineups and as a DFS tournament option at all times, especially when ownership is projected to be low. But no team has continuously stifled wide receiver play like Jacksonville has over the past two seasons. Hill has played the Jaguars twice over his career, catching 3-of-5 targets for 11 yards as a rookie in 2016 and catching 4-of-7 targets a year ago for 61 yards.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Nick Foles: Starting the season off against one of the few offenses that can really threaten the scoreboard and make Jacksonville come out of their offensive shell. The Chiefs allowed 11 passers to finish as the QB13 or higher in 2018 and didn’t travel well. Opposing quarterbacks at home averaged 25.4 fantasy points against the Chiefs and all but Case Keenum posted at least 17.9 points at home.
  • Geoff Swaim: It’s doubtful you need to dig this deep in seasonal leagues, but Swaim is a punt option for anyone chasing at the position. He’s not Zach Ertz by any means, but Foles will throw to the tight end and you’re piggy-backing the quarterback’s positive outlook. The Chiefs ranked 29th in targets (7.7), 28th in receptions (5.4) and 30th in receiving yards (66.7) allowed to opposing tight ends in 2018.
More Week 1 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet :
GB at CHI | KC at JAX | ATL at MIN | TEN at CLE | BUF at NYJ | BAL at MIA | WAS at PHI | LAR at CAR | IND at LAC | CIN at SEA | SF at TB | DET at ARI | NYG at DAL | PIT at NE | HOU at NO |