The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals Sunday afternoon game on September 6, 2019 at 4:25 pm ET.

 

  • Eight consecutive Week 1 games involving the Lions have gone over the game total — the longest such streak in the league — including 10 of the past 11 seasons.
  • The Cardinals led for just 13.4% of their offensive plays in 2018, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Arizona trailed by 10 or more points for 33.9% of their snaps, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of them was 17.9 percent.
  • In 2018, the Cardinals ranked 32nd against running backs in rushing attempts (27.8), rushing yardage (136.4 yards), rushing points (21.4), and yards from scrimmage (173.8) per game.
  • 50% of the offensive touchdowns allowed by the Cardinals in 2018 were via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
  • Just two of David Johnson’s past 14 rushing touchdowns have come from longer than two yards out. 
  • The Lions allowed just 3.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs over the 10 games after trading for Damon Harrison. They allowed 6.3 yards per carry to opposing backfields prior.

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Kerryon Johnson: Johnson can share work here and still do damage. As the starter Weeks 7-11 a year ago, Johnson was a top-12 fantasy back in three of five games while the RB20 or higher in four of those five. He did that while having 15 or fewer carries in four of those five games and averaged 17.4 touches per game over that span while other Detroit RBs averaged 10.7 total per game over that span. Arizona has done little to improve its defensive outlook heading into 2019 while its own offensive pace could apply more pressure to that subpar side of the ball. 
  • Matthew Stafford: If Stafford can’t be useful this week, there may not be any hope for him at all for the other 15 games. Arizona is entering this Week 1 game with a skeleton crew on the back end. With a suspension to Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford suffering a broken leg, Arizona is forced to play Tramaine Brock, Byron Murphy, Charles Washington, and Chris Jones as their primary cornerbacks. Brock was the only one from that group to log a defensive snap in 2018 (437 snaps) and he’s on his fifth team in four seasons. There’s some concern about the run-heavy Lions neutralizing Stafford’s overall volume here. There’s also trap potential if the Cardinals are awful offensively once again. But even in that case, Arizona’s offensive tempo can ramp up the play volume in totality if they find any success passing the football. This could be as close as Stafford will be a top-12 option entering a week all season long.
  • Kenny Golladay/Marvin Jones: Laid out above, the main pieces of this passing game on the boundaries begin the season with the best matchup they will see all year. Jones and Golladay only played one full game a year ago together post-trade of Golden Tate, with Jones receiving eight targets to four for Golladay against the Vikings. It wouldn’t even far-fetched to see the ghost of Danny Amendola be productive here as a possible range of outcomes. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • David Johnson: This is not a game to expect much from Johnson on the ground as Detroit’s defensive front of Damon Harrison, A’Shawn Robinson, Mike Daniels, and Trey Flowers should have their way with the Arizona offensive line. We’ll see how much the scheme and spread personnel can aid Johnson on the ground. That said, Johnson carries a lot of receiving juice here against the Detroit defense and linebackers that were middling against backs out of the backfield in 2018 (16th in receptions allowed) and won’t have Jarrad Davis to start the season. 
  • Christian Kirk/Larry Fitzgerald: We know the Cardinals are going to use a lot of three and four wide receiver sets this season, but Kirk and Fitzgerald are the most bankable options to start the season. We could see KeeSean Johnson  or Michael Crabtree develop as someone we want to pick up quickly in the season, but as of right now, Kirk and Fitz are the go to guys to entertain in lineups as WR3/FLEX options.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Kyler Murray: There are a number of angles here to proceed with trepidation on with Murray in his first career start. Even if there’s belief that the Cardinals will flip the switch in the season opener and show a drastically different offense than what they shown in the preseason. That’s because outside of taking a step of faith in Kliff Kingsbury’s system, the Lions defensive front is a major problem for this offensive line and the Lions offense can muck up pace of play to go along with the highly suspect projection for the Arizona defense. The Lions also allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks in 2018 despite facing Dak Prescott (two yards), Cam Newton (two yards), Josh Allen (16 yards), Russell Wilson (15 yards), and Mitchell Trubisky (18 yards). 

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • T.J. Hockenson: He’s a rookie tight end making his first NFL start, so there’s a definite step of faith here. But Hockenson might be the best tight end prospect since Rob Gronkowski and he played 79% of the snaps with Stafford on the field this preseason. On top of being on the field, Hockenson caught 3-of-4 targets for 52 yards in just under a half of play with Stafford in the Week 3 preseason game.
More Week 1 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet :
GB at CHI | KC at JAX | ATL at MIN | TEN at CLE | BUF at NYJ | BAL at MIA | WAS at PHI | LAR at CAR | IND at LAC | CIN at SEA | SF at TB | DET at ARI | NYG at DAL | PIT at NE | HOU at NO |