Texans vs Saints: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints Monday night game on September 7, 2019 at 7:10 pm ET.

Just 22.7 percent of the offensive yards against the Saints in 2018 were via rushing, the lowest rate in the league. Just 22.8 percent of the offensive yards against Houston were via rushing, the second-lowest.
The Saints ranked second in rushing points allowed per game to opposing backfields (8.2) while Houston ranked third (9.3) in 2018.
Houston was the only AFC team that went 0-4 against the spread to the NFC last season.
New Orleans scored on 56.9 percent of their drives in 2018, the highest rate in the league. It was the third consecutive season they were in the top-three in scoring rate per possession.
Drew Brees threw for 103.9 more yards (321.6 yards) per game at home as opposed to on the road in 2018, the largest gap for all starting quarterbacks.
Since entering the league in 2017, no running back has paced the position in PPR scoring on a weekly level more times than the seven times Alvin Kamara has. The next closest player over that span (Todd Gurley) has done it five times while no other back has more than two such games.
Kamara is the first running back to reach 1,500-plus total yards in each of his first two seasons since Adrian Peterson.
Averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt (sixth in the league), Deshaun Watson joined Otto Graham and Ben Roethlisberger as the only three quarterbacks in league history to average over 8.0 yards per pass attempt in each of the first two NFL seasons.

Trust (spike production for that player)

Drew Brees: We always target Brees at home early in the season. Over his past seven home openers, Brees has been the QB9 or better six times, averaging 351.8 passing yards and 22.7 fantasy points per game.
Michael Thomas: As Brees goes at home, so does Thomas. He led the league with 102.8 receiving yards per game at home last season and gets a favorable draw against Bradley Robey to kick off the season.
Alvin Kamara: In a game in which Houston can potentially do their part to defend the run, Kamara’s passing-game use takes precedence. Houston ranked 23rd in receiving points surrendered to backfields in 2018 despite ranking third in rushing points allowed.
Jared Cook: He won’t command the target opportunity he had last season in Oakland, but he’ll shed some quantity for quality in this offense. His first game with the Saints sets up well on paper, facing a Houston defense that was 23rd in DVOA versus tight ends in 2018 and 28th in fantasy points allowed to the position.
Deshaun Watson: We didn’t get to see Watson play catchup often a year ago, but we have shootout and point-chasing material here. Watson has averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt and has a 108.9 rating while trailing for his career, opposed to 7.4 yards per attempt and a 93.8 rating while playing ahead on the scoreboard.
DeAndre Hopkins: He was the only wide receiver to post double-digit PPR points in all 16 games of the season in 2018. In the highest-scoring projected game of Week 1, Hopkins will draw a Saints secondary that allowed 87.8 receiving yards per game to opposing WR1s, which ranked 31st in the league.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Will Fuller: This would be all systems go if Fuller wasn’t coming off an ACL tear that happened late last October. He took zero snaps in the preseason, but the matchup is ripe if he’s close to a full go. Fuller should draw Eli Apple most among the Houston wideouts. Apple allowed 1.62 yards per snap in coverage last season, trailing only Buster Skrine for all cornerbacks.
Duke Johnson: Similar to how this matchup plays out for Kamara, it sets up for Johnson. The Saints smothered the run a year ago, but were 18th in the league in receiving points allowed per game to opposing backfields.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Kenny Stills/Keke Coutee: Coutee still may not play Week 1 after suffering a severe ankle injury this preseason while Stills has had just one week with the Texans.The entire Saints’ secondary was vulnerable last season and either or both would draw P.J. Williams in the slot on the majority of their snaps. With both potentially cannibalizing each other and both having question marks in terms of health or usage, they are still bench options Week 1.
Carlos Hyde: Hyde will do the grunt work in this offense and is a good bet to handle goal line carries. That rushing-only role is not an attractive one as a road underdog against a Saints front that limited rushing production a year ago, leaving him as a touchdown-only option.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Latavius Murray: The Texans were strong against the run last season and Murray is largely a one-dimensional fantasy producer, but he’s also a proven touchdown scorer playing at home attached to the largest team total in Week 1. The Saints led the NFL in 1-2 yard line rushing attempts in 2018 with 24 and only the Patriots (96) have had more rushing opportunities from that area of the field than the Saints have had (84) over the past five seasons.
Ted Ginn: He’s still the starter opposite Thomas in a game in which we like Brees and the offensive in general. Ginn has been a WR3 or better in seven of his 10 games played in New Orleans during the regular season, averaging 60.4 receiving yards per game.