The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles Sunday afternoon game on September 6, 2019 at 1 pm ET.

 

  • The Eagles have won and covered all three season openers under Doug Pederson by a combined score of 77-39.
  • Philadelphia has won (and covered) four consecutive games against Washington, their longest streak in the rivalry since winning seven games in a row over the 2001-2004 seasons.
  • Since Pederson took over, the under has hit in 17-of-24 home games played by the Eagles — the second-highest rate in the league over that span — including nine of their past 11 games played in Philadelphia.
  • Zach Ertz led all tight ends in fantasy points per game at home in 2018 (23.4) as opposed to 11.7 points per game on the road. The second-largest home scoring gap per game in the league.
  • Eagles wide receivers accounted for 46.1% of the Philadelphia team targets, the lowest group share in the league.
  • The Eagles have ranked fifth and first in rushing points allowed per game to opposing backfields over the past two seasons.

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Carson Wentz: Healthy to start the season and with a fully stocked cupboard of weapons as opposed to last season, Wentz is set up for a bounce back year. He’ll begin the season against a Washington team in which he’s been the QB5, QB1, and the QB9 over his three games played in this matchup over the past two seasons.
  • Zach Ertz: Ertz has led all tight ends in target rate per route run in each of the past two seasons. While his target share from 2018 (26%) should come closer to the 22.9% he had in 2017 with the Eagles roster healthy, Ertz is set up for success to being the season. His career home splits are stellar while he’s posted lines of 9-83-0, 5-89-1, 10-112-1, and 13-122-0 over his past four games against Washington playing in Philly.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Alshon Jeffery:  Always a touchdown threat in a game where we expect Wentz to thrive, but Jeffery had his hands full facing Josh Norman and company while he’s been with the Eagles. In four games against Washington while in Philadelphia, Jeffery has combined to catch just 13-of-23 targets for 165 yards and one touchdown while finishing as the WR45 or lower in three of those four games. 
  • Washington RBs: The Eagles have limited running back production over the past two seasons not only per opportunity, but also in terms of controlling game script. Over the past two seasons, teams facing the Eagles have ranked last in rushing play percentage in each of those seasons. With Adrian Peterson now expected to be inactive, Derrius Guice moves up the ranks a bit, but is still only a RB3/FLEX for this game that needs to find the end zone. Chris Thompson has the most appeal from a game script stance of finding his way onto the FLEX board. 
  • Washington WRs and TEs: No team was worse defending opposing WR1s for fantasy purposes in 2018 than the Eagles. The problem is that Washington doesn’t have a true WR1. My initial bet for productivity would be in Trey Quinn if you have to shop here since Keenum has peppered his slot targets over the past two seasons as a starter. It was easy to funnel targets to Adam Thielen and Emmanuel Sanders, but Keenum even tripled down and made DaeSean Hamilton a low-floor fantasy play through volume in PPR formats to close the 2018 season. Vernon Davis is a punt play in DFS over an option in season-long formats.
  • Case Keenum: A huge road underdog with question marks along his offensive line and wide receiving corps is not a well we’re looking to reach into.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • DeSean Jackson: Jackson is expected to play after suffering a broken finger in late August. He has lived up to #NarrativeStreet motives on revenge games. On seven career games against his former teams, Jackson has caught 29 passes for 636 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 15.8 fantasy points per game. 
  • Eagles RBs: Targeting backfields attached to huge home favorites is always good practice, but we have the potential for an unknown early-season timeshare between Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard, even before accounting for whatever type of a role Darren Sproles plays. Oddly enough, the Eagles have just one rushing touchdown over their six games versus Washington under Pederson as opposed to 12 passing scores. Sanders is an upside FLEX option while Howard is in play for those only hunting for touchdown opportunities.
More Week 1 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet :
GB at CHI | KC at JAX | ATL at MIN | TEN at CLE | BUF at NYJ | BAL at MIA | WAS at PHI | LAR at CAR | IND at LAC | CIN at SEA | SF at TB | DET at ARI | NYG at DAL | PIT at NE | HOU at NO |