The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers Sunday afternoon game on September 6, 2019 at 4 pm ET.

 

  • The Colts have gone 1-9 against the spread in Week 1 over the past 10 seasons, the worst rate in the league. 
  • In 26 games without Andrew Luck active since drafting him in 2012, the Colts have a 10-16 record (38.5% win rate) while averaging 8.4 fewer points and 79.1 fewer offensive yards per game. 
  • T.Y. Hilton has been a top-30 scoring fantasy receiver in just 8-of-26 games without Andrew Luck.
  • In the six games that both Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle played together, Doyle out-snapped Ebron 330-to-166, out-targeted him 33-to-22, out-caught him 26-to-18, and posted more yards (245-to-228). 
  • Opposing teams targeted their wide receivers just 51.9% of the time against the Chargers in 2018, the second-lowest rate in the league.
  • Opposing teams targeted their wide receivers just 48.2% of the time against the Colts in 2018, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Opposing teams targeted their running backs a league-high 26.6% rate against the Colts in 2018.
  • Opposing tight ends scored 23.6% of the fantasy points allowed by the Colts to skill players, the highest rate in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Hunter Henry: In 13 career games in which Henry has reached just five targets, he’s been a TE1 in 12 of them while averaging 13.6 fantasy points. When the Colts gave up passing points, they went to tight ends and running backs.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Austin Ekeler: He played 65% of the first-team snaps this preseason and tallied 17, 18, and 17 touches in the three games he was active that Melvin Gordon missed in 2018. The split with Justin Jackson will likely fall more in the 60/40 range this season, but this is a great spot for Ekeler to stack receiving output against a Colts zone defense that is predicated on funneling targets to intermediate options. We just need to see who gets the goal line carries here with Gordon sitting out, but Ekeler is a safe high-floor RB2 option with upside while Jackson is more a FLEX play in hopes he finds the end zone.
  • Philip Rivers: Rivers will have no issue taking whatever the Colts are willing to give him and is willing to give his backs and tight ends a plethora of targets. The Colts were 31st in completion rate allowed (70.8 percent), but also fourth in yards allowed per completion (10.5 yards). That, the offensive line, and pace of play with the Colts now not having Luck and doing their part on the scoreboard are potential thorns for a spike week.
  • Mike Williams: WR3 expectations for Williams keep him from being someone to run away from. Allen potentially not being 100% also gives him a slight boost. But he’s still someone that you’re looking to reach the end zone in a matchup that should feature a lot Henry and the backs out of the backfield. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Keenan Allen: He can work the middle of the field and is not an option to sit in seasonal leagues, but he missed all of the preseason with an ankle injury and the Colts ranked second in points allowed to opposing WR1 options in 2018. I’ll have him as a mid-to-low WR2 play to begin the season. 
  • Jacoby Brissett: The 2019 season is going to go much different for him that his starting stint in 2017, but this still isn’t a great spot to circle for production. On the road and attached to just a 19-point implied team total against a defense that has ranked ninth and third in passing points allowed over the past two seasons. 
  • T.Y. Hilton: Ditto for Hilton in the “things will be better, but not to start” department, facing a Chargers secondary that allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing lead receivers in 2018. Outside of Hilton, we can’t place any stock in the other Colts’ WRs.
  • Marlon Mack: Tough spot for Mack as well as a large road underdog. In the three losses he played in last season, he totaled 31 touches for 172 total yards while nearly 70% of his fantasy production came in games the Colts won by double-digit points. Indianapolis has suggested this preseason that Mack will be used a three-down option, but I would prefer some in-season proof Nyheim Hines won’t be involved in the passing game to the degree he was last year when the bullets of playing catch up begin to fly.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Colts TEs: Jack Doyle is going to see the most snaps and perhaps even overall targets, but Eric Ebron is still a part of this offense when they get to the money zone. The Chargers faced the fourth-highest rate of targets to opposing tight ends, but they also ranked first in DVOA versus the tight end position. The collective volume should be here as Brissett has targeted the tight end position above league rate at every level of football, but both could very well cannibalize each other from large outcomes.
More Week 1 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet :
GB at CHI | KC at JAX | ATL at MIN | TEN at CLE | BUF at NYJ | BAL at MIA | WAS at PHI | LAR at CAR | IND at LAC | CIN at SEA | SF at TB | DET at ARI | NYG at DAL | PIT at NE | HOU at NO |