Bills vs Jets: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Sunday afternoon game on September 6, 2019 at 1 pm ET.

62.5 percent of the Jets’ games in 2018 went over the game total, trailing only the Chiefs (64.7 percent) for the highest rate in the league.
The past three times these teams have met, the game has gone over the game total with 55, 51, and 50 combined points scored in those games.
The Jets allowed a league-high 31.0 points per game at home in 2018.
Josh Allen scrambled on 11.9 percent of his drop backs in 2018, the highest rate for a quarterback with 100 or more drop backs since Michael Vick in 2010 (12.9 percent).
28.2 percent of Allen’s pass attempts where on passes 15-yards or further downfield, the highest rate in the league.
John Brown ranked eighth in the NFL with 36 targets 15-yards or further downfield in 2018 and 34.1 percent of his career targets have come on such throws.
Opposing teams targeted their wide receivers 69.9 percent of the time against the Jets in 2018, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of them was 58.7 percent.
The Bills’ pass defense ranked first in yards per completion (9.9 yards), second in adjusted yards per pass attempt (5.7), and sixth in passing points allowed per attempt (.365) in 2018.
Buffalo has allowed the highest rate of team touchdowns surrendered to running in each of the past two seasons at 55.3 percent in 2018 and 62.5 percent in 2017. They ranked 29th in 2016 at 51.4 percent.

Trust (spike production for that player)

Le’Veon Bell: We still don’t know how much truth there is to Bell sharing some opportunities with Ty Montgomery, but the Bills have a stingy pass secondary which funnels more opportunities and scoring chances to opposing backfields. The Bills have ranked in the bottom half of yards from scrimmage allowed to opposing backfields the past three seasons. For Montgomery, we need to see proof that he’s still going to be involved alongside Bell before having any confidence in him as a play on his own.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Josh Allen: Stocked with a new receiving corps, Allen faces a pass-funnel defense that struggled to cover anyone last season and has a number of question marks entering 2019. Allen was the QB15 (18.3 points) in his lone game against the Jets a year ago, but got there by adding 101 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground.
John Brown: A marriage of skill sets between him and he Allen, we just need a few deep shots to come together as the two find their on-field chemistry. Brown was targeted by Allen five times in the preseason, catching three for45 yards.
Jamison Crowder: Crowder’s immediate opportunities are elevated with Robby Anderson limited to go along with Chris Herndon’s suspension. Working almost entirely from the slot, Crowder will avoid Tre’Davious White and Kevin Johnson while Buffalo’s primary nickelback, Taron Johnson, is working himself back from a preseason groin injury.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Robby Anderson: “On track” to play in the opener after suffering a calf injury during the middle of the preseason, Anderson could be limited against a strong secondary. Anderson has found the end zone in each of his past two meetings with the Bills, but his injury and matchup keep him in the “wait and see” area of WR3/FLEX options.
Sam Darnold: With Anderson potentially limited and Chris Herndon suspended, Darnold and this new offense will be put to the test right out of the gates against one of the league’s best pass defenses from a year ago. Darnold was the QB26 in his only meeting against Buffalo in 2018.
Quincy Enunwa: Playing outside now with Crowder’s arrival, Enunwa will be forced to contend with Buffalo’s strong perimeter play. If Anderson is out, there is more target opportunity, but also more opportunity for him to be locked up with Tre’Davious White. Enunwa caught 7-of-12 targets for just 40 yards in his two matchups with Buffalo in 2018.
Bills RBs: With the release of LeSean McCoy, Buffalo will enter the season with a committee of Frank Gore, Devin Singletary, and T.J. Yeldon. Gore was the only one to play snaps with Allen and the first-team offense in the third preseason game. We’ll need to see how some of the touches shake out, but as of right now, Allen is the Bills’ largest rushing threat while he targeted running backs in the passing game below the league rate as a rookie.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Cole Beasley: Beasley was Allen’s favorite target of the preseason, receiving seven looks. Although still a low-ceiling option, Beasley will work against newly traded for Nate Hairston on the inside.
Zay Jones: Still working in two-WR sets, Jones was targeted six times by Allen this preseason. Jones received 20 targets in his two games against the Jets in 2018, but 10 of those came from slot.