- Running backs have fared better than quarterbacks, with ADP having more than double the relationship to fantasy output per game than the passers.
- Out of the top six seasons in the relationship between ADP and scoring for running backs, five of them have been over the past six seasons.
- Running back remains a “pay to play” position. Your best odds at finding a front-end scorer and player who provides weekly leverage most often come with RB1 pricing.
As we prepare for our 2025 fantasy drafts, let's examine the recent history of average draft positions to find any ongoing trends or pitfalls.
| 2025 Fantasy Football ADP |
|---|
| Draft Kit Hub |
| 2025 Quarterback Fantasy Football ADP: What We Can Learn |
| 2025 Running Back Fantasy Football ADP: What We Can Learn |
| 2025 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football ADP: What We Can Learn (Coming Soon) |
| 2025 Tight End Fantasy Football ADP: What We Can Learn (Coming Soon) |
| 2025 Draftkings Best Ball ADP |
Every year, we have nearly eight full months to prepare for the draft, but just how good are we at setting the market for the season?
That's the goal for this series, along with carving out some actionable takeaways for 2025 fantasy football drafts.
Let's keep things going with the running backs.
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Yesterday, we covered a continuing trend in how bad we have been at setting up the quarterback market.
Running backs have fared better, with ADP having more than double the relationship to fantasy output per game than the passers.
Last season was a particularly strong season for drafters.
Top 48 RB ADP & Correlation to PPR Points Per Game Since 2010
| Year | R-Squared |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.4247 |
| 2023 | 0.2405 |
| 2022 | 0.5254 |
| 2021 | 0.4018 |
| 2020 | 0.4487 |
| 2019 | 0.5281 |
| 2018 | 0.1078 |
| 2017 | 0.3786 |
| 2016 | 0.2386 |
| 2015 | 0.2129 |
| 2014 | 0.2846 |
| 2013 | 0.3013 |
| 2012 | 0.5472 |
| 2011 | 0.3361 |
| 2010 | 0.2724 |
This was the fifth-highest correlation that ADP has had in our 15-year period.
Outside of 2023 (a heat check for us as a reminder, there are no skeleton keys), we have been increasingly better at selecting running backs.
Out of the top six seasons in the relationship between ADP and scoring for running backs, five of them have been over the past six seasons.
Running Back Tiers, Rate of Players Matching or Exceeding Draft Position, & High Scoring Rates
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