- The correlation between average draft position and points per game for wide receivers is just a tick below the running back position, but it is much stronger than the quarterback position.
- We have been bad at setting up the WR market for the past two seasons. Despite that, high-scoring players at the position still largely come from high-end draft capital. You still have to pay to play when chasing high scorers.
- There have been 128 seasons in which a receiver finished as a top 24 scorer despite being a lower pick (an average of 8.0 per season). 46.1% of those have come from players in their first three seasons in the league.
As we prepare for our 2025 fantasy drafts, let's examine the recent history of average draft positions to find any ongoing trends or pitfalls.
| 2025 Fantasy Football ADP |
|---|
| Draft Kit Hub |
| 2025 Quarterback Fantasy Football ADP: What We Can Learn |
| 2025 Running Back Fantasy Football ADP: What We Can Learn |
| 2025 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football ADP: What We Can Learn |
| 2025 Tight End Fantasy Football ADP: What We Can Learn (Coming Soon) |
| 2025 Draftkings Best Ball ADP |
Every year, we have nearly eight full months to prepare for the draft, but just how good are we at setting the market for the season?
That's the goal for this series, along with carving out some actionable takeaways for 2025 fantasy football drafts.
Let's keep things going with the wide receivers.
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The correlation between average draft position and points per game for wide receivers is just a tick below the running back position, but it is much stronger than the quarterback position.
The first thing that stands out when diagnosing the image above is that the crux of elite seasons from wideouts has been attached to front-end draft capital, similar to running backs.
43 wide receivers here have averaged 20 or more PPR points per game in our sample.
31 of those seasons came from wide receivers selected in the top 10 among the position.
Only six were selected at WR20 or lower.
24 of those seasons came from wideouts selected as WR6 or higher.
Not pictured due to WR67 ADP, but Odell Beckham in 2014 was the only season averaging 20-plus points per game who was selected outside of the top 36 wide receivers in ADP.
In 2024, we only had one wide receiver who averaged 20-plus PPR points.
That was Ja’Marr Chase, who was WR4 in ADP.
We talked about this with the running backs, but you have to “pay to play” for front-end scoring seasons.
That is what makes it so appealing to have a draft slot in the back half of snake drafts this season, allowing you to split front-end RB and WR picks, or double dip on a position.
We know where the elite players come from at those positions, so your edge is going to be gained throughout the draft after those players clear the board.
While our top-down sample shows a strong correlation between ADP and points per game compared to the running back position, 2024 was a challenging year for drafting wideouts.
Top 48 WR ADP & Correlation to PPR Points Per Game Since 2010
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