- 74.0% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the 10-yard line.
- Kyren Williams is the only running back who has been top five in fantasy points scored inside the five-yard line in each of the past two seasons.
- Saquon Barkley had just three runs from the one-yard line last year, which was 29th among running backs. Barkley had another three runs from the two-yard line, the same number as Jalen Hurts.
As we approach August and head further downhill towards the 2025 fantasy season, we will extend our top down approach by analyzing team performance and output.
The goal is to have covered all corners of the fantasy Earth by late August, from a team, player, position, and game theory standpoint, to accurately calibrate our draft strategy for the upcoming season.
| 2025 Fantasy Football Odds & Trends |
|---|
| Draft Kit Hub |
| League Trends |
| Quarterback Trends |
| Running Back Trends |
| Wide Receiver Trends |
| Tight End Trends |
| NFL Team Per Drive Trends |
| Touchdown Trends |
| NFL Yardage to Touchdown Trends |
| NFL Red Zone Trends |
| Red Zone Points Vs. Expected: Quarterbacks |
| Red Zone Points Vs. Expected: Running Backs |
| Red Zone Points Vs. Expected: Wide Receivers (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone Points Vs. Expected: Tight Ends (Coming Soon) |
In our examination of league and team performance in the red zone last season, we covered not only how the crux of touchdowns scored in the NFL comes from inside the red zone, but also that not all red zone touches are created equal.
We also showcased in that post how NFL offenses have become more dependent on red zone production as part of their scoring output.
The discovery of true regression candidates in this area of the field could prove pivotal, given the rising need for offenses to succeed in the red zone.
To reiterate some notes from that article that relate to rushing production near the end zone, since 2010:
- 86.6% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the red zone. In 2024, that rate was 85.7%.
- 74.0% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the 10-yard line. In 2024, that rate was 74.9%.
- 57.4% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the five-yard line. In 2024, that rate was 57.5%.
- 43.4% of all rushing touchdowns overall come from the one or two-yard lines. In 2024, that rate was 42.3%.
It is harder to run the ball in for a touchdown from long distances, despite the success of Saquon Barkley last season.
We inherently know that a rushing attempt from the one-yard line is far more valuable than a carry from the 19-yard line, but they are often lumped together in analysis.
A carry from the one-yard line is worth six times as much for fantasy production compared to an attempt from the 19.
With that, the next step is to dive into the red zone production versus expectations for fantasy skill players based on their actual opportunities and weigh in on where those opportunities came from inside the red zone.
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2024 RB Red Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation
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