The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Patriots and Steelers on Thursday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New England | Rank | @ | Pittsburgh | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | Spread | -6.0 | ||
| 12.0 | Implied Total | 18.0 | ||
| 12.3 | 32 | Points/Gm | 16.0 | 28 |
| 21.2 | 15 | Points All./Gm | 19.1 | 6 |
| 62.3 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 59.8 | 28 |
| 64.0 | 20 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.6 | 28 |
| 4.7 | 28 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 25 |
| 4.9 | 6 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 20 |
| 41.23% | 21 | Rush% | 44.57% | 8 |
| 58.77% | 12 | Pass% | 55.43% | 25 |
| 42.97% | 17 | Opp. Rush % | 43.08% | 18 |
| 57.03% | 16 | Opp. Pass % | 56.92% | 15 |
- The 30.0 game total here is the lowest in a game since 2004.
- In the Super Bowl era, there have been seven games with a total of 30.0 points or lower. Six of those seven games went over the total.
- New England games are averaging a league-low 33.5 combined points per game.
- Pittsburgh games are averaging 35.1 combined points per game, 31st in the league.
- 19.9% of the New England possessions have reached the red zone or scored prior, the lowest rate in the league.
- 22.9% of the Pittsburgh possessions have reached the red zone or scored prior, 29th in the league.
- Pittsburgh has trailed for 58.5% of their offensive snaps, 27th in the league.
- New England has trailed for 67.2% of their offensive snaps, 30th in the league.
- New England has the fewest offensive plays of 20 or more yards in the league (25).
- The Patriots are a league-worst 2-10 against the point spread this season.
- The Patriots have allowed opponents to score on 26.8% of their possessions over their past five games, second in the league.
- The Patriots have scored on a league-low 20.6% of their possessions.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Mitchell Trubisky: Trubisky will make his first start for the Steelers since Week 15 of last season with Kenny Pickett sidelined due to an ankle injury.
We have seen a good amount of Trubisky in Pittsburgh. Pickett has left five games early with an injury and missed another start since taking for Trubisky last season.
Trubisky has taken 248 dropbacks over the past two seasons, completing 63.8% of his passes for 6.7 yards per pass attempt with a 2.6% touchdown rate.
While those are hardly blistering statistics to get excited about, all of those rates are higher than Pickett’s.
The one area where Trubisky has been worse is interceptions. He has thrown an interception on 3.1% of his passes compared to a 1.8% rate for Pickett.
For fantasy, Trubisky has been the QB25, QB23, QB16, and QB18 in his four full games with the Steelers, so we are still only looking at an option for 2QB gamers forced to fill a void at the position.
In the lowest total game of the past two decades, this is not a spot to fish for upside.
The Patriots are 10th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.373) and have allowed multiple touchdown passes in just three games this season.
Bailey Zappe: Zappe was the first New England quarterback to make it through a complete game since Week 9, but unfortunately the results were not much better than what we received from Mac Jones.
Zappe completed 13-of-25 passes (52.0%) for 141 yards (5.6 Y/A) with zero touchdowns or interceptions, adding 16 yards on four carries rushing.
Zappe has now appeared in nine games for the Patriots over the past two seasons, completing 62.2% of his passes for 6.9 Y/A with five touchdowns and five interceptions.
As is the case above, Zappe is only a fantasy option for gamers who have a vacated spot in 2QB formats. Even in single-game DFS, these quarterbacks are thin fantasy plays.
Pittsburgh is sixth in passing points allowed per pass attempt (0.361) and is second in the NFL in allowing a 59.1% completion rate.
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Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott will get the call on Thursday to lead this backfield after Rhamondre Stevenson suffered an ankle injury this past week.
With Stevenson exiting the game early, Elliott handled 21 touches for 92 yards against the Chargers, rushing 17 times for 52 yards and catching 4-of-5 targets for 40 yards.
Ty Montgomery played just three snaps, so Elliott is on the board as a volume-based RB2 for needy gamers.
His peripheral metrics have been close to what we were getting out of Stevenson, with Elliott posting an explosive run on 6.3% of his carries (Stevenson was at 6.4%) and having a 41.1% success rate (Stevenson was at 39.7%).
Pittsburgh has allowed 4.24 YPC (19th) to running backs, surrendering 14.2 rushing points (23rd) to backfields. Because they have trailed on the scoreboard so frequently, Pittsburgh has faced 25.0 rushing attempts per game from backs, which is 25th in the league.
Steelers RBs: This backfield remained split again on Sunday, with an edge in favor of Najee Harris.
Harris played on 36 snaps (59.0%) and Jaylen Warren 26 snaps (42.6%).
Harris handled 18 touches for 77 yards while Warren turned in 55 yards on his 10 touches.
Warren averaged 6.6 yards per run on his carries compared to 3.9 YPC for Harris, but once again we did not see a fundamental difference in how these backs were utilized.
Harris played five goal-to-go snaps to Warren’s one.
For the season, Harris has out-touched Warren 13-to-2 in goal-to-go situations.
The usage here forces Warren to be a splash-play-dependent FLEX while Harris is a touchdown-dependent RB2/FLEX.
The implied game script should create touches for these backs, but this is a tough matchup to anticipate a high ceiling for either player.
New England is allowing the lowest rate of runs of five or more yards (25.6%) and rate of runs of 10 or more yards (6.5%) in the NFL.
They are allowing a league-low 3.38 YPC to running backs.
Wide Receiver
Diontae Johnson: Johnson only caught 4-of-5 targets for 33 yards on Sunday against the Cardinals, but he was able to salvage what he could by catching a two-yard touchdown in garbage time.
Johnson has posted 50 or fewer receiving yards in four straight games.
He has been targeted on 15.2% of his routes with Trubisky on the field this season, catching 4-of-7 targets for 51 yards and a touchdown.
Johnson is a low-ceiling WR3/FLEX against a New England defense that is 10th in points allowed per game to WR1 targets (13.9).
If looking for a source of optimism, Johnson has been targeted on a team-high 32.5% of his routes with 4.0 yards per route run this season against man coverage. New England is second in the NFL in rate of man coverage on passing plays (40.6%).
George Pickens: Pickens opened up the game on Sunday hot, catching 2-of-3 targets for 51 yards on the opening drive.
He then caught his only two targets for 35 yards over the rest of the game.
The 86 yards were his most in a game since Week 7, so at least it was a step in the right direction, but Pickens is averaging 7.9 PPR points per game with an average scoring week of WR51 over his past six games.
With Diontae Johnson on the field this season, Pickens has 19.4% of the team targets compared to a 29.9% rate for Johnson.
Pickens has been targeted on 13.7% of his routes in the small sample of Trubisky on the field this season.
If looking to catch a big play for Pickens as a volatile FLEX, the Patriots have allowed a 36.2% catch rate to wide receivers on throws 20 or more yards downfield (12th in the league) with three touchdowns on those targets (18th).
Patriots WRs: With Demario Douglas sidelined last week in concussion protocol, JuJu Smith-Schuster led the wide receivers with 31 routes run followed by DeVante Parker (28), and Tyquan Thornton (27).
Despite the edge in playing time, Smith-Schuster managed just one catch for 11 yards. He has cleared 14 yards in one of his past eight games.
Even if you want to chase the #RevengeGame narrative, there is not much to latch onto here for fantasy purposes.
Parker led the unit with nine targets (37.5% of the team total), catching four of them for 64 yards.
That yardage total was a season-high for Parker and was tied for third-most by a New England wideout this season.
Thornton did not catch his lone target on a deep ball that went through his grasp, adding a 39-yard rush.
We will follow the status of Douglas during a short week.
If he is cleared, Douglas will be back on the table as a floor-based WR3/FLEX in full-PPR formats and a low-ceiling FLEX in non-PPR leagues.
Douglas has more than 55 yards in just one game this season without a touchdown.
30.9% of Douglas’ targets have come behind the line of scrimmage, trailing only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (33.8%) and Rondale Moore (31.9%) among wideouts with 40 or more targets this season.
Should Douglas remain absent, Parker is the best wideout to take a shot on here in single-game DFS and desperation swing for gamers looking to fill a void in seasonal leagues.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth: After his Week 12 breakout, Freiermuth only managed to collect 3-of-5 targets for 29 yards on Sunday against the Cardinals.
Freiermuth now has a single game catching 9-of-11 targets for 120 yards while pulling in 12-of-19 targets for 89 yards over his other six appearances this season.
Despite failing to follow up his massive Week 12 with a strong game last week, Freiermuth did receive 18.5% of the team targets, his second-highest rate in a game this season. That rate was TE8 on the week.
We are at the mercy of this passing game being functional, and this game environment does not scream out to handle Freiermuth as more than a touchdown-or-bust fantasy option.
New England has also been good against tight ends, allowing 6.6 yards per target (eighth) and a 1.5% touchdown rate (fourth) to the position this season.
Hunter Henry: Henry caught 2-of-4 targets for 15 yards on Sunday, giving him 15 catches for 137 yards and a touchdown over his past eight games played.
Henry has not topped 39 yards in any of those games, leaving him as a thin play even in single-game DFS.
Pittsburgh just allowed 11 receptions for 120 yards and a touchdown to Arizona tight ends on Sunday if you need something to chase in this matchup.
