The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 18 Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals Sunday afternoon game.
|39.27%||6||Opp. Rush %||41.26%||10|
|60.73%||27||Opp. Pass %||58.74%||23|
Motivation or Rest Alert
With the fallout from Monday now announced, the Bengals are no longer in contention to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC and they have been declared AFC North Champs. There are a few things in play here surrounding the outcome of this game still , however. The Bengals can secure the No. 2 seed with a win and a Bills loss to the Patriots. With a win on Sunday the Bengals can also avoid a potential coin flip in any potential rematch between these teams in the playoffs, which could happen as early as the Wild Card Round.
The Ravens were already playing for the potential of moving into the No. 5 seed versus the No. 6 seed with a win and a Chargers loss.
With that in play, both teams should be expected to push to win this game.
Joe Burrow: Over his past 10 games, Burrow has been a QB1 scorer in seven of those games with just one week lower than QB14 in weekly fantasy output. Over that span, he leads the league with 25 passing touchdowns, ranks second in completion rate (71.0%), and second in passing yardage (294.4 yards per game).
Since Week 9, Burrow has also only been sacked on 3.7% of his dropbacks after an 8.7% rate prior. We will see what changes with the loss of La’El Collins. Burrow was averaging 9.0 yards per pass attempt prior to the injury to Collins in Week 16 and then averaged 5.6 Y/A afterward.
The Bengals and Burrow were in a different spot when these teams played in Week 5, but in that game Burrow threw for just 217 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The Ravens have only allowed one QB1 week over their past 11 games, but Burrow is head and shoulders the best quarterback they have faced over that span.
Ja’Marr Chase: Pulling in 8-of-11 targets for 79 yards against the Patriots in Week 16, Chase now has caught at least seven passes in each of his past seven games played. He has averaged 11.4 targets per game over that span with double-digit looks in all but one. Chase has now scored double-digit PPR points in all 11 games this season and has done so in 15 straight games dating back to last year, the longest active streak for a wide receiver in the league.
The Ravens have allowed 15.2 points per game to opposing WR1 targets (eighth), but they have allowed 9.2 yards per target (26th) to opposing boundary receivers. Chase caught 7-of-12 targets for 50 yards when these teams played earlier in the season.
Tee Higgins: We are definitely wishing good will on Higgins after he was involved in the unfortunate play on Monday night. Hopefully, he’s not placing guilt on himself for the results of the collision.
After 35 and 33 yards in his previous two games, Higgins caught 8-of-9 targets for 128 yards and a touchdown in Week 16. Higgins has now scored in each of his past four full games played, regardless of the yardage totals.
Last weekend was only the second time this season that Higgins has had a WR1 scoring week in a game played with Chase. With both players on the field, Higgins has 21.9% of the team targets with a target on 19.1% of his routes, compared to a 28.0% target share and 24.3% target rate per route with Chase on the sideline, but Higgins is still averaging 1.91 yards per route run (Chase at 1.93) with five touchdowns (Chase six) on those routes run together.
Higgins only played 10 snaps when these teams met in Week 5, but he plays 80% of the outside, where the Ravens have given up yards, but not many touchdowns. As mentioned above, Baltimore is 26th in yards allowed per target to boundary wideouts, but also has allowed a 3.3% touchdown rate to those options, which is sixth.
Joe Mixon: Mixon bounced back in Week 16 with 108 yards on 23 touches. His snap share was still down (59%) on par with what we have seen since he returned from his concussion injury. Over that span, he has played 58%, 64%, and 59% of the snaps, his three lowest rates of the season in games without injury.
Mixon was able to bump up to a 76.7% share of backfield touches (his highest rate since Week 9) on the strength of receiving work. Mixon caught 7-of-9 targets for 43 yards. He already has career highs in targets (70), catches (55), and yards (400) through the air this season, which has raised his floor higher than it has been in years past.
Mixon has only rushed for 100 yards one time this season with a rushing touchdown in three games. He is 20th in the league in success rate rushing (39.2%) and 33rd in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (8.0%) despite facing a light box on a league-high 40.2% of carries.
The Ravens are allowing 4.01 yards per carry to backs (eighth)and 10.7 rushing points per game to running backs (fifth), but they have allowed 10.5 receiving points per game (22nd) to the position. When these teams played in Week 5, Mixon had 88 yards on 17 touches.
Mark Andrews: After failing to top 63 yards since Week 6, Andrews finally snapped out of his slump, catching all nine of his targets for 100 yards on Sunday night against the Steelers. Andrews has had two spike weeks the past two times these teams have played, catching 8-of-10 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown when these teams played in Week 5 after an 8-125-1 game the game prior in 2021. Outside of that game from Andrews, the Bengals have been solid against tight ends, allowing just two other touchdowns to the position, but tight ends do have 24.6% of the receptions against them, which is the sixth-highest rate in the league.
If You Must
Ravens RBs: J.K. Dobbins out-snapped Gus Edwards 26-to-9 on Sunday night, something John Harbaugh said he regretted after the game.
Dobbins has rushed for 6.9 yards per carry over the past four weeks since returning to the lineup, but since he has just one reception and one touchdown over that span, he has been the RB40 and RB28 the past two weeks. Even while being efficient, Dobbins is forced to live on rushing production alone for fantasy.
Edwards is no different. He has rushed for 6.5 YPC over that same span, but still does not have a catch this season.
The Bengals are allowing 3.93 YPC to backs (fifth) and 11.2 rushing points per game (eighth) to the position. Baltimore backs ran 13 times for 73 yards when these teams played earlier in the season.
Tyler Boyd: Boyd is averaging just 3.5 catches for 47.4 yards per game, the lowest marks in his career since the 2017 season. He is still a cheap attachment to this offense while his 9.5 yards per target are tied for a career-high despite the down year in usage. Baltimore has allowed a league-high 92 receptions to opposing slot receivers, although Boyd was not a major contributor to those totals when these teams played earlier in the season. In that Week 5 game, Boyd caught 3-of-4 targets for 32 yards.
Hayden Hurst: Hurst was active on Monday after missing the previous three games. Hurst is only averaging 8.3 yards per catch and 6.3 yards per target, so we have needed touchdowns (he only has two) or volume to get there this season. The Ravens are not allowing much efficiency to tight ends, giving up 6.5 yards per target (ninth) but they have allowed a 6.2% touchdown rate (21st) to the position.
More Week 18 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
KC at LVR | TEN at JAX | BAL at CIN | TB at ATL | NE at BUF | MIN at CHI | HOU at IND | NYJ at MIA | CAR at NO | CLE at PIT | LAC at DEN | NYG at PHI | ARI at SF | LAR at SEA | DAL at WAS | DET at GB