The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 8 Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon game.
| Tennessee | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | Spread | 1 | ||
| 25 | Implied Total | 24 | ||
| 27.6 | 6 | Points/Gm | 24.1 | 15 |
| 23.4 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 21.3 | 11 |
| 68.7 | 5 | Plays/Gm | 61.6 | 22 |
| 63.3 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.6 | 8 |
| 5.6 | 21 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 14 |
| 6 | 24 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 23 |
| 47.61% | 5 | Rush% | 44.55% | 10 |
| 52.39% | 28 | Pass% | 55.45% | 23 |
| 36.34% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 44.10% | 24 |
| 63.66% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 55.90% | 9 |
- Derrick Henry leads the league in rushing yardage on gains of 10 or more yards (391).
- Jonathan Taylor ranks second (329 yards).
- Taylor’s 194 rushing yards over expectation are the most in the league per Next Gen Stats.
- 35.2% of Taylor’s carries have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the highest rate among all running backs.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill (TRUST): Tannehill is coming off his second QB1 scoring week of the season (19.4 points) and a season-high 10.0 yards per pass attempt against the Chiefs. After being sacked on 20 of 202 dropbacks (9.9%) through five weeks, Tannehill has been sacked on just 1-of-59 dropbacks the past two weeks. The Colts are last in the NFL in pressure rate (16.3%) and sacked Tannehill just once on 31 dropbacks in Week 3.
When these teams met in Week 3, Tannehill had his highest-scoring game (21.5 points) on the season throwing three touchdown passes in a game in which A.J. Brown did not play and Julio Jones played just 50% of the snaps.
Even with the rain-soaked production the Colts held the 49ers passing game to on Sunday night, they still rank 23rd in expected points allowed per pass attempt, 30th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.56), and 26th in passing points allowed per game (17.9).
Carson Wentz: Wentz stayed hot despite the inclement weather on Sunday night, turning in 20.3 fantasy points (QB10). Wentz added a rushing score to his line to make up for just 150 passing yards and just 5.8 yards per pass attempt, but he also threw two touchdown passes, his fourth straight game with multiple touchdown passes.
Wentz has now scored 17 or more fantasy points in every game but one this season. That one game was against this Tennessee team when he logged minimal practice and played through multiple ankle injuries. Tennessee is coming off clamping the Chiefs in a surprising fashion last week, but still rank 20th in passing points allowed per game (17.1), 21st in yards allowed per attempt (7.7 Y/A), and 21st in yards allowed per completion (11.8). Wentz is in the streaming conversation in 1QB formats and a strong floor-based QB2.
Running Back
Derrick Henry: Henry was mortal last week against a soft Kansas City run defense, carrying 29 times for 86 yards (2.9 YPC), but he still added two catches for 16 yards and threw a touchdown pass, his first in the regular season for his career.
Henry still racked up the 31 touches, giving him 209 already on the season, 73 more than any other back in the league. Henry is also now just one reception short of his career-high in a year (19), which he set last season.
The Colts have been game against the run, ranking first in the league in expected points added via their run defense and 10th in rushing points allowed to backfields (10.3 per game). When these teams met in Week 3, Tennessee did all they could, allowing Henry to rush 28 times for 113 yards (4.0 YPC) while he added three catches for 31 yards. Even without a touchdown in that game, Henry was the RB12 in scoring and a locked-in RB1 option.
Jonathan Taylor: Taylor has been hot, posting 114, 169, 158, and 110 total yards the past four games with six touchdowns. The Colts have progressively given Taylor more run as he has played a higher rate of snaps than the game prior in each of the past five games. Last week, Taylor even ran a pass route 57.7% of the team dropbacks the past two games after 35.75 over the first five games of the season.
When these teams met in Week 3, Taylor handled a season-low 11 touches for 72 yards, which was 50% of the backfield touches. Since that game, he has handled 55.9%, 64.3%, 60.0%, and 63.6% of the backfield touches.
Tennessee is 27th in yards allowed per carry (4.6 YPC), but they have faced just 18 total rushing attempts from the Buffalo and Kansas City backs the past two weeks to keep their yardage totals down. Taylor is a high-end RB1.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown (TRUST): After a slow start to the season and some missed time on the field, Brown has gotten things going the past two weeks with games of 7-91-0 and 8-133-1 with nine targets in each game.
Brown left the Week 3 game versus the Colts after just 12 snaps but draws another strong matchup as Indianapolis is 31st in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 options (21.5 per game). They have allowed seven touchdowns to those lead wideouts, tied for the most in the league.
Michael Pittman: Pittman has seen his target share drop from the week prior in each of his past five games played, but he made the most of his action on Sunday night, catching all four of his targets for 105 yards and a touchdown. Pittman now has been a top-24 scorer in three games while finishing as a WR4 or lower just twice.
Despite the declining target share, Pittman has not seen his playing time waver. Pittman has now run a pass route on 96.0% of the team dropbacks, which ranks sixth among all wide receivers in the league. I would expect the targets to bounce back soon enough with that type of route participation. A good place would be against a Tennessee defense that still ranks 28th in yards allowed per target (9.1 yards) and 24th in points allowed per target (1.94) to opposing wide receivers. Pittman is a borderline WR2/WR3 option.
T.Y. Hilton: A week after returning to the field, Hilton was held out on Sunday Night due to a quad issue. In Week 6, Hilton came off the injured reserve to lead the Colts in receiving, catching all four of his targets (22.2%) for 80 yards. Hilton ran a route on just 69.6% of the pass routes, but he was targeted on 25% of his routes run. Hilton should be expected to get more run moving on, but he did run hot on his opportunities in his debut as the WR32 in scoring. He is a WR4/FLEX based on matchup.
Tight End
Mo Alie-Cox: Alie-Cox has not caught more than three passes in a game yet this season, but he has caught a touchdown in each of the past two weeks and has four touchdowns total over the past four weeks. Alie-Cox has accounted for 36.4% of the Indianapolis touchdown receptions, which is second among all tight ends. 43.9% of his fantasy points have come directly via touchdowns, so he is still very much a touchdown-dependent TE2, while the Titans have been excellent against opposing tight ends to open the year, ranking third in catch rate (58.1%) and second in yards allowed per target (4.8 yards) to the position.
More Week 8 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
GB at ARI | TEN at IND | PHI at DET | LAR at HOU | PIT at CLE | SF at CHI | MIA at BUF | CIN at NYJ | CAR at ATL | NE at LAC | JAX at SEA | TB at NO | WFT at DEN | DAL at MIN | NYG at KC
