NFL Best Bets: Week 2 Picks
- Titans Team Total Under 16.5 Points
- Cowboys Team Total Over 27.5 Points
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NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Titans Team Total Under 16.5 Points
Titans fans who hoped the coaching combo of Robert Saleh as the head coach and Brian Daboll as the offensive coordinator would make them a more competent-looking operation this year were disappointed in Week 1.
They got steamrolled by the Jets in Tennessee, losing 23-10 to Gang Green.
It was more of the same from Cam Ward‘s putrid rookie season.
Among 33 qualified quarterbacks in 2025, Ward was 33rd in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, 33rd in success rate, 31st in sack-to-pressure rate, and 31st in clean pocket EPA.
Among 32 qualified quarterbacks in Week 1, Ward was 26th in EPA per play, 26th in success rate, 20th in sack-to-pressure rate, and 28th in clean pocket EPA.
There isn't a favorable way to spin Ward's career to this point, and he couldn't even fake it as a competent quarterback against the Jets.
Ward has a considerably more difficult matchup this week against the Eagles.
Last season, Philadelphia ranked tied for seventh in points allowed per drive (1.79), ninth in defensive points allowed per game (19.0), seventh in yards allowed per play (4.9), and fifth in pressure rate.
The Eagles held the Commanders to 1.83 points per drive, 22 points, 4.4 yards per play, and a 40% pressure rate, in line with last year's 39.7%.
Ward struggles with clean pockets, and he's lost under pressure.
Tennessee ranked 22nd in pressure rate allowed (37.6%) last year and 20th (41.0%) in Week 1.
The Titans also cannot be counted on to create success on the ground.
Tennessee was 28th in yards before contact per rush attempt (1.12) and tied for 29th in EPA per designed rush last year.
They did much better in yards before contact per rush attempt (2.29) in Week 1, but they were only tied for 18th in EPA per designed rush.
The Titans don't have anything they can hang their hat on offensively.
Eclipsing 16.5 points is too high a bar for them to clear against a talented defense.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Cowboys Team Total Over 27.5 Points
It appears Dallas's defense isn't fixed.
They yielded 4.00 points per drive, 28 points, and 5.8 yards per play to the Giants on Sunday Night Football.
The defense's ineptitude will force their high-powered, uptempo offense to keep their foot mashed down on the accelerator.
According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, since last year, the Cowboys rank second in pace, second in neutral pace, and third in pace with the lead.
They're also 11th in pass rate over expected (PROE) during that period.
Dallas's offense can also benefit from home-field advantage this week.
Since 2023, Dak Prescott has posted a 93.9 quarterback rating, 229 passing yards per game, a 49.9% success rate, and 0.119 EPA per play compared in 24 road tilts to a 104.9 quarterback rating, 301.4 passing yards per game, a 54.1% success rate, and 0.162 EPA per play in 19 games at home.
The Commanders revamped their defense through free agency and the draft, but the Eagles, running a new offense for the first time in a regular-season contest, gashed them for 6.0 yards per play and hung 24 points on them.
The Eagles also had a 3.5% PROE, and the Cowboys don't need their arm twisted to chuck it.
Dallas's lack of a viable option to run the ball behind Javonte Williams should also incentivize them to air it out.
A total of 27.5 points isn't a low bar to clear, but they accomplished the feat in both meetings last year, scoring 44 points against them in Week 7 and 30 in Week 17.
Even with an influx of talent through free agency, the Commanders are ill-equipped to slow the Cowboys on offense.
