Week 5 NFL Player Props: Best Prop Bets & Predictions

NFL Best Prop Bets: Week 5 Picks

• Quinshon Judkins Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
• Sam LaPorta Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
• Isaiah Likely Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

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NFL Week 5 Best Prop Bet: Quinshon Judkins Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Judkins has been one of the least efficient running backs this season.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, among 46 running backs with at least 25 carries this year, Judkins is tied for 16th in rush attempts per game (14.8) but only 28th in rushing yards per game (44.3), 42nd in yards per carry (3.00), 43rd in yards before contact per attempt (1.14), 31st in yards after contact per attempt (1.86), 43rd in explosive run rate (3.6%), tied for 36th in success rate (40.7%), 41st in stuff rate (55.9%), and 45th in rush yards over expected (-18.2).

There's no positive spin on Judkins' work on the ground this year.

Judkins has logged 33, 21, 70, and 53 rushing yards in four games.

He only cleared 59.5 against the Panthers in Week 3 on a season-high 18 carries.

The Panthers have allowed 131.0 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry to running backs in the three games against opponents other than the Browns.

They held Cleveland's running backs to 87 rushing yards at 4.6 yards per carry.

The Jets are a plus matchup for Judkins, allowing 113.8 rushing yards per game at 4.42 yards per carry to running backs.

Nevertheless, it's not as soft a matchup as the Panthers, and the Browns are also road underdogs, which works against Judkins' rushing outlook.

Judkins should fall short of 59.5 rushing yards for the fourth time of the season in Sunday's contest in New Jersey.

NFL Week 5 Best Prop Bet: Sam LaPorta Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

LaPorta has alternated between clearing 50.5 receiving yards and falling short, posting 48, 52, 44, and 84 receiving yards this season.

He had a season-high 84 receiving yards last week, and he has a favorable matchup to keep the momentum going.

First, the Cardinals have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game (66.0) and the seventh-most yards per target (8.5) to tight ends this year.

David Njoku (58 receiving yards), George Kittle (82 receiving yards), and Isaiah Likely (66 receiving yards) surpassed 50.5 receiving yards against the Cardinals this season.

Second, the Cardinals rank second in two-high coverage rate (73.2%) and first in Cover-6 rate (27.6%).

LaPorta has a 23% target rate per route and 2.14 yards per route run (Y/RR) on 188 routes against two-high coverage since last year and a 25% target rate per route and 2.86 Y/RR on 51 routes against Cover 6.

The game's likely shootout environment should help LaPorta maximize the matchup and Arizona's coverage tendencies, allowing him to clear 50.5 receiving yards in Week 5.

NFL Week 5 Best Prop Bet: Isaiah Likely Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Likely has been the Giants' top target earner in the three games Jameis Winston played the majority of the snaps.

In those games, Likely had a 31.3% target share, 33% target rate per route, 34.9% first-read rate, and 8.7 targets per game.

He has turned his gaudy target rates into 4.7 receptions per game, 37.3 receiving yards per game, and 1.40 Y/RR.

Likely had only 33 receiving yards in Winston's relief appearance and 13 in Winston's first start of the year, but he surged to 66 last week.

His matchup is favorable for building on last week's showing.

The Commanders have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game (60.8) and the third-most yards per target (9.72) to tight ends this season.

Washington has allowed Dallas Goedert (77 receiving yards), Jake Ferguson (43 receiving yards), AJ Barner (69 receiving yards), and Tyler Warren (41 receiving yards) to clear 40.5 receiving yards this season.

In other words, a tight end has exceeded 40.5 receiving yards against the Commanders in all four games.

The trend of tight ends going over 40.5 receiving yards against the Commanders is unlikely to end this week, as Likely should clear that threshold on Sunday.