Packers vs. Patriots Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 9

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Packers vs. Patriots Week 9 matchup.

Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Packers vs. Patriots Fantasy Quarterback Preview

Drake Maye

Maye has been on a run of high-end scoring, closing the past five weeks as QB1, QB1, QB3, QB2, and QB6.

He leads all quarterbacks in passing points per dropback over that stretch (0.60), completing 68.8% of his passes (6th) for 9.1 yards per pass attempt (2nd) and 14 touchdowns to 2 interceptions.

He has done that with a rotating cast of pass-catchers.

Maye has also added 6.3 rushing points per game over that span.

Maye's hot streak has come against five defenses in the bottom 12 in passing points allowed and four of the bottom eight.

Maye opened the season with three games against top-10 defenses, finishing QB27, QB25, and QB32.

We have lived through the schedule allegations against Maye, so he gets another shot to push back on those here.

I don't think he will bottom out that much this week, but he will get a bigger test on Sunday against a sixth-ranked Green Bay defense that allows 11.8 passing points per game.

They are allowing 6.2 yards per pass attempt (5th) and a 3.5% touchdown rate (6th).

They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in one game this season.

The Packers have also had a softer layout, but in recent weeks have faced Dak Prescott (QB22), Jared Goff (QB11) and Bryce Young (QB19).

Maye has been making his money over this hot stretch throwing downfield.

On throws 10 or more yards downfield over the past five weeks, Maye has completed 67.9% (36 of 53) of those throws (2nd in the league) for 14.8 yards per attempt (2nd) and 10 touchdowns to 1 interception.

The Packers have allowed a 44.6% completion rate on those throws (4th), with 2 touchdowns allowed (tied for the fewest) and 7 interceptions (tied for 1st).

Maye has a league-high 7 touchdowns over that period on throws 20 or more yards downfield.

The Packers have allowed 1 touchdown on those throws so far this season.

The Patriots are still expected to be without A.J. Brown and are now adding Hunter Henry to the list of injured pass catchers they are working around.

They will get Mack Hollins back this week, but it is a limited unit.

Maye relied on big plays last week to get over against the Dolphins, but with a near-empty cupboard, he threw for 199 yards and had 15.9 passing points, his fewest since Week 3.

Maye has rushing ability, but with all the moving parts and a much tougher matchup than recent weeks, I am docking him a bit to mid-to-back-end QB1 range.

There is volatility here, but I don't think you need to stream him unless you have a strong pivot, since this game can still be back-and-forth.

The Packers are doing a good job of getting into unique coverages, disguising their coverages pre- to post-snap 39.6% of the time.

That is the second-highest rate in the league.

They are most frequently going from single-high looks pre-snap to two-high coverages.

Take a grain of salt on the defenses he has faced, but Maye has done a much better job against those post-snap coverage changes, completing 24 of 33 passes (72.7%) for 336 yards (10.2 Y/A).

Jordan Love

Love is also on a solid run for gamers, sitting as the QB3 in fantasy points over the past four weeks.

That is two spots behind Maye, so we could have some fun here if both guys are on.

Love has thrown multiple touchdown passes in seven of his eight games this season.

The Packers have remained aggressive through the air.

Even with Josh Jacobs back, they have thrown the ball 13% and 11.1% over pass rate expectations in the past two games.

For the season, they rank second in the league in pass rate over expectations, behind the Bengals.

As road underdogs (and with the run game still poor), I expect that to continue here.

Love has also had a run of facing bad pass defenses, so we are getting a bit of a mirror match to check the heat gauge on where these quarterbacks are.

The Patriots are 12th in passing points allowed (13.7 per game).

Love has faced defenses higher in the Vikings (19.5 points) and Buccaneers (13.1 points).

Love doesn't have the rushing ability to fall back on like Maye, so applying some discount here based on the matchup makes him more of a fringe QB1.

New England is a more aggressive defense, playing man coverage 29% of the time (3rd).

Man coverage has given Love some issues this season.

Against man coverage, Love has completed 51% of his passes (25th) for 6.2 yards per pass attempt (18th), but he has a 9.8% touchdown rate (12th) and zero interceptions.

Outside of playing man coverage, the Patriots really mix things up well in their zone looks.

The only zone defense they rank in the top 10 in is Cover 2 (17.6%).

Love has thrown for 8.9 Y/A against those looks (10th).

Packers vs. Patriots Fantasy Running Back Preview

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