The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2024 Football Preview book. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps as well as draft class analysis from Ryan McCrystal. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2024 Football Preview.
With 2024 NFL training camps on the horizon, we’re starting to understand how 2024 NFL draft classes will impact each roster this season.
Let's look at the Kansas City Chiefs, breaking down the most likely instant-impact rookies from each class, while also providing some insight into why certain early picks may not see the field.
Who are the Kansas City Chiefs rookies?
- Xavier Worthy — WR — Round 1
- Kingsley Suamataia — OT — Round 2
- Jared Wiley — TE — Round 4
- Jaden Hicks — S — Round 4
- Hunter Nourzad — C — Round 5
- Kamal Hadden — CB — Round 6
- C.J. Hanson — OG — Round 7
Kansas City Chiefs Draft Class Grade:
The Kansas City Chiefs received an A draft grade from Sharp Football.
Which Chiefs Rookies Will Make An Impact?
The Chiefs took a big swing with Xavier Worthy (first round), who lacks the ceiling of a typical Day 1 selection but has traits that fit perfectly into Kansas City’s offense. Despite his speed, Worthy is not an elite deep threat. Based on route-adjusted data, he had a career catch rate 7% below expected on explosive routes. In 2023, Worthy hauled in just six of 13 catchable targets on explosive routes.
After the catch, however, Worthy is electric. He generated 13% more yards after catch than expected in his career, and 22% during his final season with the Longhorns. In 2023, 14% of Mahomes passes were screens, the league’s third-highest rate, and that rate has sat above 10% in each of the last three years. 24 of Worthy’s 75 receptions came on screens last year, and he averaged 7.8 yards per reception on those plays.
Kingsley Suamataia (second round) was an obvious target for the Chiefs given their need for offensive line help, their love of young prospects (he’s 21), and their tendency to target linemen with length (34-inch arms). Suamataia is expected to compete with 2023 third-round pick Wanya Morris for the starting job at left tackle.
Jared Wiley (fourth round) gives the Chiefs a developmental tight end to groom behind Travis Kelce. Wiley’s physical traits compare well to Kelce's, so there’s a chance he could step into that role down the road. Based on route-adjusted data, Wiley’s catch rate was just 2.6% above expected, but he has the frame to develop into a possession receiver and the straight-line athleticism to stretch the field down the seam.
Jaden Hicks (fourth round) has experience in both safety roles but was most productive lining up in the box as a strong safety against the run. Kansas City used two-high safety formations at the league’s highest rate, so Hicks will need to become more comfortable in the deep secondary to get on the field.
Hunter Nourzad (fifth round) played center at Penn State last season, which is not a need in Kansas City, but he also has starting experience at right tackle and both guard spots. The team likely gives him some practice reps at every position to prepare him for a reserve role. If he can serve as a backup across the line, he’s a valuable addition even if he never earns a permanent starting gig.
Nourzad is joined on the offensive line by C.J. Hanson (seventh round), who was a three-year starter at right guard for Holy Cross. It’s a big jump in competition, but Chiefs offensive line coach Andy Heck is one of the best in the business and will attempt to groom Hanson for a role in the future.
Kamal Hadden (sixth round) was having a breakout year at Tennessee before a season-ending shoulder injury. In seven games, Hadden had almost as many interceptions (two) as completions allowed (three) when targeted at 10 or more yards downfield. Based on route-adjusted data, Hadden allowed a catch rate 81% below expected in 2023. It was an incredible performance, but that number sat at 1% above expected the previous year.
The Chiefs did a nice job blending need and value through the draft, though Worthy was a significant risk. Taking a chance on a role player in the first round is a big swing but understandable given the Chiefs’ need at receiver and how he fits into the offense.
The risk also feels less significant in the long run as every player in this class appears to have the traits to potentially develop into a starter down the road. Obviously many of them won’t reach that ceiling, but even if the Chiefs come away with three starters from a class with just two top-100 picks, that’s a strong performance by the front office.
This analysis continues in the 2024 Football Preview
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