The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp’s 2024 Football Preview book. In addition to Warren’s deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps as well as draft class analysis from Ryan McCrystal. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2024 Football Preview.
With 2024 NFL training camps on the horizon, we’re starting to understand how 2024 NFL draft classes will impact each roster this season.
Let’s look at the New England Patriots, breaking down the most likely instant-impact rookies from each class, while also providing some insight into why certain early picks may not see the field.
Who are the New England Patriots rookies?
- Drake Maye — QB — Round 1
- Ja’Lynn Polk — WR — Round 2
- Caden Wallace — OT — Round 3
- Layden Robinson — OG — Round 4
- Javon Baker — WR — Round 4
- Marcellas Dial — CB — Round 6
- Joe Milton — QB — Round 6
- Jaheim Bell — TE — Round 7
New England Patriots Draft Class Grade:
The New England Patriots received a C- draft grade from Sharp Football.
Which Patriots Rookies Will Make An Impact?
The Patriots swung for the fences with Drake Maye (first round), who filled an obvious need but landed in the worst situation of all the quarterbacks from a developmental perspective. Maye will be working with a first-time head coach, an offensive coordinator who hasn’t been a full-time playcaller since 2009, and a quarterbacks coach with just one year of experience in the role.
Additionally, Maye is supported by arguably the league’s worst receiving corps and a shaky offensive line. That’s bad news for any rookie quarterback but especially one in need of as much development as Maye. In 2023, Maye’s route-adjusted on-target rate was 8.9% below expected, ranked 60th out of 71 qualified Power Five quarterbacks. None of the other first-round quarterbacks posted a number below expected by this metric.
Ja’Lynn Polk (second round) might be Maye’s No. 1 weapon by default, a role he never filled in college. Polk has shown steady development as a possession receiver on the outside but still needs to become more reliable as a pass-catcher. Based on route-adjusted data, Polk’s catch rate was just 2.9% above expected. Considering his lack of athletic traits, he’ll need to improve in that area because he won’t be the type of weapon who consistently creates separation.
Javon Baker (fourth round) is a slightly more dynamic weapon than Polk and should also immediately push for a starting role. On the most common NFL routes (screen, slant, curl, dig, drag, flat, out), Baker generated 12% more yards after catch than expected over the last two years compared to Polk’s rate of 9% below expected.
Caedan Wallace (third round) will compete for a starting job at either left or right tackle. He exclusively started on the right side during his career at Penn State, but there’s no reason to think he couldn’t handle a transition to left tackle. Despite impressive traits, Wallace never fully lived up to expectations as a former top-100 recruit. Wallace allowed a blown-block rate of 3.2% last season, double the rate of his counterpart on the left side, Olu Fashanu (1.6%). There’s a chance the Patriots ultimately move Wallace to guard, though the state of the roster dictates he gets a shot at tackle in the short term.
Joining Wallace on the offensive line is Layden Robinson (fourth round), who was a three-year starter and an effective run blocker at Texas A&M. The Aggies averaged a team-high 5.3 yards per attempt when running to Robinson’s gap last season. Cole Strange is returning from a season-ending injury, and if he’s not ready for Week 1, Robinson could be in the mix to start.
Marcellas Dial (sixth round) was an underrated prospect who has a chance to provide quality depth at cornerback. He plays with an aggressive mentality and generated a ball-hawk rate 32% above expected over the last two years.
The selection of Joe Milton III (sixth round) was bizarre, especially since they are keeping him at quarterback (for now) rather than moving him to tight end. Milton has a huge arm 一 and has no idea where the ball is going when he releases it. When throwing to explosive routes, Milton’s on-target rate was 34% below expected, ranked 61st out of 66 Power Five quarterbacks. The best-case scenario is Milton develops into the next Logan Thomas.
If the Patriots do eventually move Milton to tight end, he’ll have competition from Jaheim Bell (seventh round). Bell lacks ideal size, but he’s a capable blocker and athletic enough to contribute to the passing game. The depth chart at tight end is crowded, but if Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper continue to regress, Bell could see some action this year.
The range of outcomes for this class might be the largest from this year’s draft. Maye has the traits to develop into a star, and if he does, he likely elevates the play of Polk and Baker too. However, given the development needed and the questionable support around him, Maye is unequivocally the most likely quarterback from this class to turn into a bust 一 which would probably result in another full reset in New England.
This analysis continues in the 2024 Football Preview
Order Warren Sharp’s 2024 Football Preview to get draft class analysis for all 32 NFL teams.
Warren Sharp’s 500+ page full-color PDF, the 2024 Football Preview, is unlike anything you have previously read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought process abounds in every team chapter and article.
Get Warren’s Book for $34.99
Warren Sharp’s book shares insights into the players, coaches, teams, and philosophies with one goal: to prepare you for the 2024 NFL season with the smartest information delivered in the fastest, most direct way possible for optimal reviewing and retention.
- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data driven & full of actionable info
- Fantasy Football player profiles, predictions, and ranks
- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2024 games
- Coaching strategic advice for teams, play calling analysis & team tendencies
- Front Office Analysis positional spending, roster construction & cap analysis
- Reasons to bet over/under win totals & analysis of futures betting market
- Rookie draft class deep dive into impact for every team
- Rankings for every positional unit on every team with analysis
