The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2024 Football Preview book. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps as well as draft class analysis from Ryan McCrystal. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2024 Football Preview.
With 2024 NFL training camps on the horizon, we’re starting to understand how 2024 NFL draft classes will impact each roster this season.
Let's look at the Jacksonville Jaguars, breaking down the most likely instant-impact rookies from each class, while also providing some insight into why certain early picks may not see the field.
Who are the Jacksonville Jaguars rookies?
- Brian Thomas Jr. — WR — Round 1
- Maason Smith — DT — Round 2
- Jarrian Jones — CB — Round 3
- Javon Foster — OT — Round 4
- Jordan Jefferson — DT — Round 4
- Deantre Prince — CB — Round 5
- Keilan Robinson — RB — Round 5
- Cam Little — K — Round 6
- Myles Cole — EDGE — Round 7
Jacksonville Jaguars Draft Class Grade:
The Jacksonville Jaguars received a C+ draft grade from Sharp Football.
Which Jaguars Rookies Will Make An Impact?
Jacksonville took a risk by trading down but still landed Brian Thomas Jr. (first round), who was a logical target as Trevor Lawrence desperately needed another weapon in the passing game. Due to his height and speed, Thomas is at his best when he’s used to stretch the field. In 2023, he caught 20 of 25 catchable targets at 15 or more yards downfield.
The downside to Thomas’ game is his lack of production after the catch on shorter routes. When targeted on the most common NFL routes, Thomas generated just 4.6% more yards after catch than expected based on route-adjusted metrics. Compare that to his college teammate Malik Nabers at 25.9% above expected.
Maason Smith (second round) is a former five-star recruit who never blossomed at LSU but will be an exciting developmental prospect for the Jaguars. Smith’s growth potentially suffered due to constant turnover on the LSU coaching staff. The team had five different defensive line coaches in 2023 alone, and he never worked with the same defensive line coach in consecutive years during his three seasons in the program.
The only issue with the selection of Smith is the fact that Arik Armstead, Roy Robertson-Harris, and DaVon Hamilton are each under contract for three more years. So it was the furthest thing from a need, making it an odd investment for a team facing pressure to get back to the playoffs.
Smith will be joined on the defensive line by his college teammate Jordan Jefferson (fourth round), a selection which made even less sense due to the aforementioned depth at the position. Jefferson offers nothing as a pass-rusher (3.7% pressure rate last year, 3.8% rate in 2022). His testing numbers indicate a higher ceiling, but he spent five years in college with 25 starts and showed very little development.
Jarrian Jones (third round) came off the board earlier than expected, but he adds some much-needed depth in the secondary. He has starting experience on the outside and in the slot. Although he lacks ideal length (30-inch arms), Jones seems to have a knack for locating and playing the ball in coverage. Over the last two seasons, he generated a ball-hawk rate 74% above expected based on route-adjusted data.
Those ball-hawk skills might be exactly what Jacksonville was looking for in this draft, as they also added Deantre Prince (fifth round). Prince’s route-adjusted ball-hawk rate over the last two seasons at Ole Miss was 48% above expected while almost exclusively lining up on the outside.
Keilan Robinson (fifth round) served as a change-of-pace backup to Bijan Robinson and Jonathon Brooks over the last few seasons at Texas. He faces plenty of competition in the battle to be Travis Etienne’s backup, but he should also challenge Devin Duvernay for kickoff return duties.
Javon Foster (fourth round) was a three-year starter at left tackle at Missouri. The team will likely monitor his development closely as a tough decision about Cam Robinson's future will need to be made next offseason. Even if Foster never emerges as a starter, he has the length to play tackle and the power to play guard, potentially offering four-position versatility as a backup.
Will Little (sixth round) will battle Riley Patterson for kicking duties. Little has a big leg and hit six of his eight attempts from 50 or more yards over the last two seasons at Arkansas. However, he was just 11 of 15 (73%) on kicks between 35 and 49 yards.
Myles Cole (seventh round) spent six years in college and never generated any consistent production despite an impressive combination of size and athleticism. There’s probably not much hope for unlocking his full potential at this point, but he offers versatility at defensive end and tackle, which could earn him a roster spot.
The Jaguars are facing a lot of pressure to get back to the playoffs and continue the development of Lawrence, so it was surprising to see Trent Baalke put together a rookie class with just one player (Thomas) likely to see any meaningful action in 2024.
This analysis continues in the 2024 Football Preview
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