Betting the Over for Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Player Prop Bet

We break down why you should take the OVER on Joe Mixon rushing yards player prop bet for the upcoming 2022 NFL season.

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop Bet: Why you should bet the Over

Current Rushing Yards Over/Under for Joe Mixon:

1049.5 rushing yards at BetMGM
1075.5 rushing yards at FanDuel Sportsbook
1050.5 rushing yards at DraftKings Sportsbook

Why you should bet the Over:

Bengals improved their offensive line
Smaller third-down role should only affect his receiving yardage

Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is available more than 150 yards below his 2021 total. Mixon easily eclipsed these numbers despite sitting out Week 17 last year, so we should have some confidence he’s able to hit the over.

#1 Reason to Bet the Over

The Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive line struggled last season, but the offseason additions of La’el Collins, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras should improve the unit and make Mixon a more efficient runner this fall.

According to TruMedia, Mixon picked up just 25% of his rushing yardage before contact last season, ranked 39th out of 50 running backs. He also generated three or more yards before contact on just 21% of his carries, also ranked 39th.

#2 Reason to Bet the Over

Mixon’s yardage prop may be available at a lower number than his 2021 total due to an expectation of a smaller role on third downs. Chris Evans and/or Samaje Perine are reportedly set to cut into Mixon’s third-down action.

A smaller third-down role will affect Mixon’s fantasy value, but shouldn’t alter our expectations for his rushing yards.

In 2021, Mixon only carried the ball on third down 15 times 一 and 13 of those were short-yardage attempts, which Mixon should still receive this year.

» Bet the Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Over