We break down why you should take the OVER on Rashaad Penny rushing yards player prop bet for the upcoming 2022 NFL season.
Rashaad Penny Rushing Yards Prop Bet: Why you should bet the Over
Current Rushing Yards Over/Under for Rashaad Penny:
- 749.5 rushing yards at BetMGM
- 799.5 rushing yards at FanDuel Sportsbook
Why you should bet the Over:
- Low number lessens the risk of losing bet due to injury
- Ken Walker III may not pose a serious threat to playing time
Rashaad Penny will need to set a career-high to hit the over, but we should have confidence in his ability to produce after his strong end to the 2021 season.
#1 Reason to Bet the Over
Although durability remains a concern, Penny has already proven capable of putting up significant numbers in limited playing time. He generated 749 rushing yards while playing over 40% of the Seattle Seahawks’ snaps in just six games a season ago.
His limited playing time was also not entirely due to injury, as he was buried on the depth chart early in the year.
All signs point to Penny beginning the year as Seattle’s starter 一 assuming good health 一 which means he should exceed last year’s 119 carries, even if he’s forced to miss some time due to injury.
#2 Reason to Bet the Over
Seattle drafted running back Ken Walker III in the second round of the NFL draft, which obviously sparked questions about Penny’s job security.
However, Seattle likely made this selection knowing Chris Carson was unlikely to play 一 he retired in July 一 and needed to address its backfield depth.
Seattle’s ball carriers must produce behind one of the league’s shakiest offensive lines, and Penny appears better suited for that role than Walker.
In his final year in college, Walker averaged 1.9 yards per attempt when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage (ranked sixth in the Big Ten), according to Sports Info Solutions 一 identical to Penny’s average against NFL defenses in 2021.
For further comparison, Penny averaged 2.9 yards per attempt when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage during his final collegiate season.
Seattle running backs were contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 44% of their carries last season.
Penny is the more decisive runner at this stage of their careers, and based on these numbers, we should probably expect Walker to serve as a true backup, rather than a genuine threat to Penny’s job.
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