We break down why you should take the OVER on Ezekiel Elliott rushing yards player prop bet for the upcoming 2022 NFL season.
Ezekiel Elliot Rushing Yards Prop Bet: Why you should bet the Over
Current Rushing Yards Over/Under for Ezekiel Elliott:
- 874.5 rushing yards at BetMGM
- 850.5 rushing yards at FanDuel Sportsbook
- 875.5 rushing yards at DraftKings Sportsbook
Why you should bet the Over:
- Elliot is among the most durable running backs
- He has remained effective in the power run game
The 27-year-old Ezekiel Elliott has shown signs of slowing down in recent years, but should still have enough left in the tank to eclipse these rushing totals.
#1 Reason to Bet the Over
Over the last three seasons, Elliott has only missed one game due to injury 一 a calf injury in 2020.
So even though he is expected to lose touches to Tony Pollard, we should remain fairly confident Elliott maintains a steady workload throughout the year.
Let’s conservatively assume Elliott’s yards per attempt rate matches his career low (4.0 in 2020). At that rate, he would need 219 carries (12.9 per game over 17 games) to reach 875 rushing yards 一 his career low is 237 carries.
Based on those numbers, Elliott appears to be capable of hitting the over even if his production and usage regress slightly.
#2 Reason to Bet the Over
Since Pollard has emerged as the most explosive ball carrier in the Cowboys’ offense, Elliott sees more touches in the power run game. According to TruMedia, 68% of his carries occurred versus a stacked box in 2021.
Although the stacked box typically limits rushing yardage, Elliott has consistently performed well in those situations and he’s shown no signs of decline.
Excluding short-yardage situations, Elliott averaged 4.1 yards per attempt versus a stacked box last year, and 4.3 over the last five seasons combined, per Trumedia.
Elliott’s ability to grind out the tough yards remains intact, and that should make him a key part of the Cowboys game plan, especially when they’re playing with a lead.
More NFL Player Props to Bet:
- Betting the Justin Fields Passing Yards Player Prop Bet
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- Betting the Russell Wilson Passing Touchdowns Player Prop Bet
- Betting the Kyler Murray Passing Yards Player Prop Bet
- Betting the Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Player Prop Bet
- Betting the Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Player Prop Bet
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