Week 10 NFL Best Bets: Against the Spread & Game Total Picks

NFL Best Bets: Week 10 Picks

• Green Bay Packers -3
• Saints/Panthers Over 48.5 Points

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NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Green Bay Packers -3

The Packers passed a test last week with flying colors, beating the brakes off the Patriots as road underdogs in New England.

They'll face another test against the Vikings, a team they flubbed a 22-10 lead midway through the third quarter in Week 1, losing 39-22.

Despite the Week 1 misstep, the Packers are 6-3, with an exciting passing attack and a defense rounding into form.

According to Sumer Sports, the Packers rank 31st in expected points added (EPA) per rush, but their offense ranks tied for 11th in EPA per play because they're tied for sixth in EPA per pass.

Additionally, per TruMedia, the Packers are 12th in points per game (24.0), 13th in points per drive (2.12), and tied for 10th in yards per play (5.6).

Jordan Love is spinning it this year.

Among 31 qualified passers, Love ranks eighth in EPA per play.

Minnesota's offense should get a lift from acquiring Kirk Cousins.

The combination of Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz has fallen flat.

Among 42 quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts this year, Wentz ranks 41st in EPA per play, Murray ranks 34th, and Cousins ranks tied for 12th.

Still, Cousins is changing teams on the fly, and even though he has familiarity with Kevin O'Connell and many of his teammates, a smooth transition during the season is a tall order.

Regardless, Cousins is almost certainly a sizable upgrade over Murray and Wentz.

Like the Packers, the Vikings have a lousy running game, ranking 29th in EPA per rush.

Give the advantage to Green Bay's offense in this matchup.

Minnesota's defense is sensational, ranking first in defensive points allowed per game (13.8), first in points allowed per drive (1.26), second in defensive EPA per play, first in defensive success rate, second in yards allowed per play (4.6), second in yards allowed per game (280.0), first in pressure rate, first in sack rate, and tied for fifth in turnovers forced (13).

Unfortunately for their buzzsaw defense, they're on a short week, and the Bills dominated them in time of possession on Monday night.

Buffalo ran 79 plays and had the ball for 42 minutes and 32 seconds.

In Week 8, the Lions ran 68 plays and had the ball for 35 minutes and 43 seconds against the Vikings.

Minnesota's defense is unquestionably elite, but they've been on the field a ton in the previous two weeks.

Green Bay's defense didn't get off to a fast start, but they've rounded into form since the Falcons embarrassed them on Thursday Night Football in Week 3.

Since Week 4, the Packers have allowed only 16.7 points per game, 0.96 points per drive, and 4.76 yards per play.

Green Bay has also racked up 3.17 sacks per game and forced 2.83 turnovers per game during that six-game stretch.

The gap between the overworked Vikings defense and the white-hot Packers defense might not be as large as the full-season numbers would suggest.

With the advantage at quarterback, home-field advantage, and rest, Green Bay should be able to win the rematch and cover the spread.

NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Saints/Panthers Over 48.5 Points

Fast-paced enthusiasts should be over the moon about the NFC South matchup between the Saints and the Panthers.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Panthers are playing at the fastest pace this year, and the Saints are playing at the second-fastest pace.

Both teams also play fast under all circumstances.

The Saints are first in pace with the lead, and the Panthers rank ninth.

New Orleans ranks fifth in trailing pace, and Carolina ranks second.

Basically, the game should be played at a breakneck pace, no matter the runout.

Both teams will likely lean into the pass, too.

The Panthers rank third in pass rate over expected (5.5% PROE), and the Saints rank 12th in PROE (1.6%) this season.

New Orleans' ranking is misleading, too.

The Vikings rank dead last in PROE faced (-6.8%) this season, comfortably ahead of the second-lowest PROE (-4.1%).

The Saints had a -7.0% PROE in Week 5 against the Vikings.

New Orleans has a 2.5% PROE in their other seven games, which would rank ninth over the course of the full season.

Both offenses are average or better, and the defenses are below average.

The Panthers rank 11th in points per game (24.9) and 12th in points per drive (2.16), while the Saints rank 15th in points per game (23.1) and 15th in points per drive (2.08).

Excluding the game against the Vikings, the Saints' points per drive drop to 2.00, but their points per game climb to 24.6.

As for the defenses, the Panthers rank 28th in points allowed per game (26.3) and 27th in points allowed per drive (2.33).

The Saints rank tied for 29th in points allowed per game (27.0) and 28th in points allowed per drive (2.40).

The offenses should put on a show in this NFC South battle, and points should be plentiful, pushing the total past 48.5.