Week 3 NFL Best Bets: Against the Spread & Game Total Picks

NFL Best Bets: Week 3 Picks

• Bills -7
• Lions Team Total Over 27.5 Points

Sharp Betting Tools:

• NFL Spreads, Totals, & Moneylines
• NFL Props: Lines & Odds
• NFL Weather Forecast & Potential Impact
• NFL Implied Team Totals
• NFL Matchups

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Bills -7

The Joe Brady era of the Bills has gotten off to a high-flying start.

Buffalo went to Houston and beat the Texans 36-31, then opened their new stadium with a 41-31 victory on Thursday Night Football against the visiting Lions.

According to TruMedia, the Bills are first in yards per play (7.1), second in points per drive (3.67), first in points per game (38.5), first in rate of plays gaining 10-plus yards, first in rate of plays gaining 20-plus yards, first in expected points added per play, and second in success rate.

The offense is clicking on all cylinders, no matter how you slice it.

You can't say the same about the defense.

Jim Leonhard‘s defense is tied for 28th in points allowed per game (31.0), 31st in points allowed per drive (3.10), tied for 20th in yards allowed per play (5.5), 27th in explosive play rate allowed, and 28th in defensive success rate.

That said, one area of strength has been their ability to generate pressure.

The Bills are seventh in pressure rate and 10th in sack rate this season.

The Chargers come limping into Orchard Park this week after dropping games to the Cardinals and the Raiders at home.

Both games ended 26-14.

The Mike McDaniel offense has been a disaster.

The Chargers are tied for 18th in yards per play (5.2), 17th in points per drive (2.09), 20th in points per game (21.6), tied for 23rd in EPA per play, 17th in success rate, and 31st in pressure rate allowed.

Los Angeles's inability to protect Justin Herbert could be problematic this week.

As mentioned above, the one bright spot for Buffalo's defense this year has been generating pressure and sacks.

Chargers DC Chris O'Leary‘s side of the ball doesn't get a pass.

Despite facing the Jacoby Brissett-led Cardinals and the Kirk Cousins-led and Brock Bowers-less Raiders, the Chargers defense is 23rd in points allowed per game (25.0), 14th in points allowed per drive (2.08), tied for 17th in yards allowed per play (5.3), 29th in passing yards allowed per game (262.5), 22nd in pressure rate, and ninth in defensive success rate.

Josh Allen should meet little resistance, and James Cook can gash them on the ground, too.

Buffalo will benefit from the rest advantage and from the Chargers playing at 1:00 p.m. ET as a West Coast team.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Bills are 16-2 with 33.1 points per game and 21.3 points allowed per game in 18 home games in the regular season since 2024.

The rest advantage is also a big deal for the Bills.

As Warren Sharp pointed out in the 2026 Football Preview, the Bills are 62-18 (78%) straight up when not playing with a rest disadvantage since 2020, the best in the NFL.

Buffalo is also 44-33-3 (57.1%) against the spread when not playing with a rest disadvantage during that period.

Trap game be damned.

The Bills should handle their business and cover the 7-point spread this week.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Lions Team Total Over 27.5 Points

The Lions offense hasn't been perfect, but it's been quite good in Drew Petzing‘s first two games as their offensive coordinator.

Detroit is tied for 10th in yards per play (5.4), sixth in points per drive (2.70), tied for fourth in points per game (31.0), tied for fourth in rate of plays gaining 10-plus yards, tied for fourth in EPA per play, and sixth in success rate.

The Jets have played stellar defense, but facing the Titans and the Packers in a rainy game with an injury-depleted offensive line isn't the stiffest of challenges.

The Lions are a different animal.

Additionally, the Jets are only tied for 22nd in pressure rate.

Jared Goff is sensitive to pressure, but he's a nightmare when he has a clean pocket.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, on 931 unpressured dropbacks since 2024, Goff has completed 76.7% of his 923 pass attempts for 9.50 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), 69 touchdowns (nice), 15 interceptions, and a 120.8 quarterback rating.

The Lions are also a wagon at home.

In 18 home regular-season games since 2024, the Lions have averaged 33.8 points per game.

Detroit's defense is 25th in yards allowed per play (5.9), 30th in points allowed per drive (3.09), and 31st in points allowed per game (35.5) this season.

Therefore, the Lions will likely need to keep their foot smashed down on the accelerator.

The fireworks should be plentiful for the well-rested Lions after their Thursday Night Football game in Week 2, allowing them to clear 27.5 points this week against a Jets team coming off an overtime loss.