Week 6 NFL Best Bets: Against the Spread & Game Total Picks

NFL Best Bets: Week 6 Picks

• Panthers -3.5
• Bills at Raiders Over 53.5

Sharp Betting Tools:

• NFL Spreads, Totals, & Moneylines
• NFL Props: Lines & Odds
• NFL Weather Forecast & Potential Impact
• NFL Implied Team Totals
• NFL Matchups

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Panthers -3.5

The season is spiraling down the drain for the Eagles, and they took another hit Thursday when Jalen Hurts was ruled out with a blood clot.

Tanner McKee is the next person up.

McKee has 96 career dropbacks since the Eagles selected him in the sixth round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

McKee has a 61.4% completion percentage, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 5 passing touchdowns, and only 1 interception on 88 pass attempts.

The sparkling touchdown-to-interception ratio doesn't align with his 1 big-time throw and 2 turnover-worthy plays, according to PFF.

McKee also opened the year as Philadelphia's third-string quarterback, with Andy Dalton operating as the backup.

Now, he's thrust into action behind a crumbling offensive line, and Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith appear unlikely to be at his disposal.

Further elaborating on Philadelphia's offensive line, the Eagles rank 30th in dropbacks under pressure this season.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, McKee has 39 career pressured dropbacks and has completed only 41.9% of his 31 pass attempts for 147 yards, 4.74 yards per pass attempt, 3.22 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), and 5 sacks (12.8%).

The Eagles will likely struggle to run the ball, too.

Barkley is trending toward missing this week.

Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve, and Will Shipley is injured.

So, Philadelphia's backfield is left with the uninspiring collection of Dameon Pierce, Carson Steele, and Jaydon Blue (if they call him up from the practice squad).

Carolina's defense isn't spectacular, but the Eagles lack the talent to challenge them.

Meanwhile, Carolina's offense is playing well.

The Panthers rank fourth in points per game (30.3), eighth in points per drive (2.48), and fifth in yards per play (6.1).

Carolina has sped things up and cut Bryce Young loose this season.

The Panthers are third in the league in neutral pace and rank second in pass rate over expected (8.1% PROE).

The Panthers also have a massive contextual advantage this week.

Carolina is coming off a Week 5 bye, and the Eagles played in London last week.

John Breech pointed out on Twitter that combination has happened only four times, and the teams coming off the international game are 0-4 and 1-3 against the spread.

The average margin of victory for the teams coming off the bye was 10 points, and the specific margins of victory were 16, 8, 2, and 14 points.

The Panthers should be the latest team to earn a victory and cover the spread under those conditions.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Bills at Raiders Over 53.5

Buffalo's defense is struggling, but its offense isn't, making it a shootout team.

The Bills rank 28th in scoring defense (28.2 points per game), 27th in points per drive (2.71), tied for 22nd in yards per play (5.6), and 30th in success rate allowed.

It's not a hopeless unit.

They've held teams to only 3.9 yards per rush attempt.

Their success against the run, coupled with the Raiders being home underdogs, could push Las Vegas to air it out more often, which would be ideal for scoring points.

The air should also be the path of least resistance for Kirk Cousins and the Raiders.

The Bills rank 31st in passing yards allowed per game (280.4), tied for 21st in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.4), and 26th in passing touchdown rate allowed (6.5%).

The Raiders can score points, too.

They rank ninth in points per game (26.4), 10th in points per drive (2.28), 18th in yards per play (5.2), and 17th in success rate.

The Bills have offset their dreadful defense with a high-flying offense.

Buffalo is ranked first in scoring (32.8 points per game), tied for first in points per drive (3.09), first in yards per play (6.7), first in expected points added (EPA) per play, and sixth in offensive success rate.

Josh Allen can do the heavy lifting if the defense digs him a hole.

However, if the game goes according to the spread and the Bills are in a positive game script, that's not bad for the over.

The Bills are second in yards per rush attempt (5.4) and first in rush attempts gaining 10-plus yards (28).

The Raiders have been gashed on the ground, ranking tied for 30th in yards allowed per rush attempt (5.2) and 32nd in yards allowed before contact per attempt (2.39).

A positive game script for the Bills doesn't necessarily mean three yards and a cloud of dust while they Pacman the clock.

Instead, it could mean chunk runs and points.

Four of Buffalo's five games have gone over this week's 53.0-point total, and Las Vegas's games have gone over that total in three straight.