We break down why you should take the UNDER on Kyler Murray passing yards player prop bet for the upcoming 2022 NFL season.
Kyler Murray Passing Yards Prop Bet: Why you should bet the under
Current Passing Yards Over/Under for Kyler Murray:
- 3999.5 passing yards on BetMGM
- 4000.5 passing yards on FanDuel Sportsbook
- 4050.5 passing yards on DraftKings Sportsbook
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The obvious reason to bet the under is DeAndre Hopkins’s six-game suspension. Murray relies heavily on Hopkins, and probably can’t replicate last season’s numbers without him.
Murray picked up 30% of his yardage on throws 20 or more yards downfield last year, the league’s second highest rate according to TruMedia.
Deep ball production is volatile, so it’s already a bad sign Murray relied so heavily on it for yardage 一 being forced to play six games without Hopkins only makes a repeat performance even less likely.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
Murray’s stature and injury history also have to factor into our calculations. Although Murray has only missed three games in his career (all last season due to an ankle injury), the 5-foot-10 quarterback has to be considered a perennial injury risk.
Additionally, we’ve seen signs of Murray slowing down late in the year 一 potentially due to the wear and tear he suffers throughout the season.
Over the last three seasons, there have been 26 quarterbacks to start at least 14 games between Week 10 and the end of the season. In that sample of games, Murray ranked 23rd with 6.6 yards per attempt.
Among that same group of 26 quarterbacks, Murray ranked ninth during Weeks 1-9 with 7.8 yards per attempt.
Since Murray will be without Hopkins early in the year 一 when he has typically padded his stats with a hot start 一 it’s probably not a smart bet to expect a career year from the Cardinals’ fourth-year quarterback.
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