NFL Best Prop Bets: Week 2 Picks
- Rashee Rice Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Derrick Henry Over 92.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Matthew Golden Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Sharp Betting Tools:
- NFL Props: Lines & Odds
- NFL Spreads, Totals, & Moneylines
- NFL Weather Forecast & Potential Impact
- NFL Implied Team Totals
NFL Week 2 Best Prop Bet: Rashee Rice Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Rice's receiving yardage line opened at 54.5, and it's 51.5 at other books.
Even with the line coming down, the under is the side to back.
Rice was unimpressive in Week 1.
According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, Rice had an 83.6% snap share, 81.8% route participation rate, 2 targets (7.4% target share), 10.0% first-read rate, 2 receptions, and 19 receiving yards.
Rice did most of his limited damage on his 13-yard touchdown reception, when the Broncos looked like they'd never tackled an opponent before, a common theme for them in Week 1.
The fourth-year pro isn't a top-shelf wideout, and his receiving production comes entirely from being force-fed volume.
Among 121 wide receivers with at least 500 routes since 2023, Rice's 4.90-yard average depth of target (aDOT) ranks 121st.
Beyond his lack of first-read targets and targets overall last week, Rice's receiving production takes a hit from a substantial shift in Kansas City's play-calling tendencies.
The Chiefs are 20th in pass rate over expected (-0.9% PROE) this season, down from second last year (6.8%) and second (7.8%) from 2023 to 2025.
Indianapolis's coverage tendencies are also a disaster for Rice's receiving potential.
Sauce Gardner has had at least a 50% snap share in four games since the Colts acquired him via trade last year.
In the three games that was the case last year, the Colts had a 35.1% man-coverage rate.
In the season opener, they had an eye-popping 53.3% man-coverage rate.
In 111 routes against man coverage since 2024, Rice has had a 26% target rate per route and 1.20 yards per route run (Y/RR).
The league average for yards per route run by wide receivers against man coverage during that period was 1.62 Y/RR.
Rice will likely have another quiet effort this week.
NFL Week 2 Best Prop Bet: Derrick Henry Over 92.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
In Declan Doyle‘s first game as an offensive coordinator, the Ravens had a -2.7% PROE.
King Henry was fed 24 of Baltimore's backfield's 30 rush attempts (80%), turning his hefty workload into 144 yards at 6.0 yards per carry.
Lamar Jackson was more dynamic as a runner to open this year than to close last season, likely helping contribute to Henry's 2.79 yards before contact per rush attempt.
And, of course, Henry is a load to bring down and piled up 3.21 yards after contact per attempt in the opener.
Zay Flowers is nursing a hamstring injury and appears unlikely to suit up, and Ja'Kobi Lane is out with a wrist injury.
The Ravens are 8.5-point favorites and don't need to get cute.
They can feed their bowling-ball of butcher knives the ball against a defense that permitted 156 rushing yards to Jahmyr Gibbs last week.
Henry's work in victories with the Ravens has been outstanding, too.
In 22 wins as a member of the Ravens, Henry has rumbled for 20.8 rush attempts per game, 121.5 rushing yards per game, and 5.83 yards per carry.
Per StatHead, Henry exceeded 92.5 rushing yards in 15 of those wins.
Sure, it's a new coaching staff, but they don't need to fix what's not broken.
NFL Week 2 Best Prop Bet: Matthew Golden Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Those optimistic about the Packers changing their offensive stripes this year have one favorable data point under their belt.
From 2024 to 2025, the Packers ranked 30th in PROE (-3.4%) and tied for 24th in situation-neutral pace.
In Week 1, Green Bay was sixth in PROE (6.6%) and second in situation-neutral pace.
The lack of backfield talent and a matchup against a stingy defense might have played a hand in those marks last week, but it also aligned with offseason chatter.
Additionally, the Packers cut down their notorious wide receiver rotations.
As a result, Golden posted a pass-catcher high 82.1% snap share and 87.0% route participation rate.
The second-year speedster also led the team in target share (28.6%), tied for the team lead in receptions (6), and ranked second in air yards share (27.5%) and receiving yards (95).
It was an encouraging sign of Golden making a sophomore surge after a mostly quiet rookie campaign.
Green Bay's defense also struggled mightily in Week 1, which should keep the pressure on the offense to keep moving the ball and scoring points.
Golden should clear 49.5 receiving yards this week.