Chiefs Pass Catcher Prop Bets: Super Bowl Analysis & Breakdown

While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props. Here we will be breaking down those props per player with career performance trends and some notes and nuggets.

All of these lines are current lines from BetMGM Sportsbook, so make sure you shop around for the best lines and numbers.

We have already looked at the prop lines set for Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and the running backs for both teams. With that, we are jumping over to the props for the pass catchers on the Chiefs’ side.

Receptions

Player	Rec.	Career %	2022
Travis Kelce	7.5	23.1%	31.6%
JuJu Smith-Schuster	3.5	63.1%	44.4%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2.5	44.9%	52.6%
Kadarius Toney	2.5	42.1%	27.3%
Noah Gray	1.5	23.1%	42.1%

MGM is begging us to take a shot on Travis Kelce’s reception over (+105) compared to being -145 for the under. Eight receptions is a lot to lean on, even for Kelce. He has hit the over here in 6-of-19 games this season. The good news if you are sprinkling on the over is that Kelce has caught eight or more passes in six of his past eight postseason games.

The over on Marquez-Valdes Scantling (-120) is the best play here. Not only has Valdes-Scantling hit the over in more than half of his games this season, the Chiefs are entering the Super Bowl with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney coming off injuries. Either or both could be limited on Sunday, which could further propel the need for Valdes-Scantling like what happened in the AFC Championship game.

JuJu Smith-Schuster does have plus odds (+105) toward his over, but he enters Sunday banged up and has three or fewer receptions in eight of his past 10 games.

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Receiving Yards

Player	ReYd	Career %	2022
Travis Kelce	77.5	43.1%	52.6%
JuJu Smith-Schuster	37.5	59.5%	50.0%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	35.5	46.2%	47.4%
Kadarius Toney	26.5	33.3%	27.3%
Noah Gray	12.5	30.8%	57.9%
Justin Watson	15.5	20.30%	33.30%

Not only does Travis Kelce have the highest yardage prop in the Super Bowl, but it is a line that he has bested in over half of his games this season. That is amazing for a tight end. Kelce has 78 or more receiving yards in eight straight playoff games.

While I do not mind the over on the reception prop for Marquez Valdes-Scantling, his yardage prop is more fragile. Prior to the AFC Championship, Valdes-Scantling had posted 28 or fewer receiving yards in six straight games.

JuJu Smith-Schuster has hit the over on his yardage line in half of his games this season, but this current line is pricing in where we are with Smith-Schuster now over his seasonal output. Smith-Schuster had more than 38 receiving yards in two of his past 10 games.

Noah Gray is the other Chief here that has hit his current line in over half of his games played this season. Gray has actually even gone over this yardage total four different times with just one catch in the game. He may need to hit the over on just one grab because Gray has exactly one reception in five straight games.

If I were pressed to take a Kadarius Toney prop, it would be his anytime touchdown (+260) over anything related to counting stats. Even when fully healthy, Toney is someone who has had more than 18 receiving yards in two games while he has not run more than 17 pass routes in a game this season. But as Dan Pizzuta highlighted, Toney and his role as the jet motion option are a primary staple of the Kansas City red zone offense.

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More Super Bowl Prop Bet Coverage:

Be sure to look through our Super Bowl 57 Hub for detailed coverage & analysis on the big game.

Also, check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.

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This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot, going 74% in our last 46 NFL bets to close the season:

Last 5 weeks in NFL: 34-12 (74%)
Final 2022 NCAAF Bowls: 18-8 (69%) including 6-0 (100%) on elevated plays
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Final 2022 NFL Regular Season: 92-63 (59%)
Final 2022 NFL Computer Totals: 37-15 (71%)
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