The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 5 Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs Sunday Night Football game.
|38.71%||8||Opp. Rush %||42.35%||20|
|61.29%||25||Opp. Pass %||57.65%||13|
- The Chiefs lead the NFL in points per possession (3.56).
- The Bills are fourth at 2.81 points per drive.
- The Chiefs are the last remaining team that has allowed their opponent to hit their implied team total in every game this season.
- The Chiefs are allowing a league-high 45.6 yards per opponent possession.
- The Bills are allowing a league-low 18.4 yards per possession.
- The Chiefs have turned 35.7% of their first or second down plays into first downs, the highest rate in the league.
- Kansas City has allowed opponents to convert 36.7% of their first and second down plays into first downs, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bills are averaging a league-high 5.8 sacks plus turnovers per game defensively.
- The Bills are leading the league in plays per game run inside of the red zone (17.0).
- The Chiefs have allowed the most red zone possessions (19) and have allowed 15 (78.9%) to be converted for touchdowns (28th).
- Patrick Mahomes leads the league in fantasy points scored in the red zone (47.4) where he is 15-of-20 (75%) with nine touchdown passes (zero interceptions) and one rushing touchdown.
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes is one of just two quarterbacks to finish as a top-12 scorer in all four weeks this season and Mahomes has taken it a step further, finishing as the QB8 or higher in all four games.
Throwing at least three touchdown passes in all four games, Mahomes draws a Buffalo defense that has come out of the gates allowing a league-low 0.20 points per pass attempt and 6.2 passing points per game. The Bills have taken a step forward, but they also have faced three backup quarterbacks in four games (Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke, and Davis Mills) paired with Ben Roethlisberger. Needless to say, there is a cavernous gap facing those passers to Mahomes.
When these teams played twice a year ago, the Bills sat back in shell coverage. They blitzed Mahomes on just 12.3% of his dropbacks total in those games and when they did, Mahomes was 7-of-9 passing for 80 yards and two touchdowns. Mahomes totaled 20.6 and 25.5 fantasy points in those meetings. As hot as the Bills have been defensively, this is their first real challenge and you are keeping Mahomes locked into lineups as a top-flight option.
Josh Allen: Allen has posted just one QB1 scoring week so far to open the year (he made it count), but after a slow start to the year with 5.3 and 5.4 yards per pass attempt, he has come back with 8.3 and 8.6 yards per pass attempt the past two weeks.
Where Allen has made a huge jump is under pressure. Through two games, Allen just 11-of-31 (35.5%) for 128 yards (4.1 Y/A) under pressure. The past two weeks, he has connected 17-of-27 passes (63%) under pressure for 276 yards (10.2 Y/A) to go along with three touchdowns. Pressure was the name of the game for him a year ago in these matchups as Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs were able to consistently disrupt this passing game. In the matchups between these teams, the Chiefs were able to pressure Allen on 46% of his dropbacks in which Allen was 10-of-28 passing (35.7%) for 106 yards (3.8 Y/A) with an interception.
The Chiefs are sixth in the league in pressure rate (29%), but it has not mattered much as they have not been able to stop anyone in any facet of the game through four weeks. They have opened the year allowing 0.52 points per pass attempt (24th), a 69.3% completion rate (26th), 8.8 yards per attempt (30th), and 12.7 yards per completion (27th). Despite his struggles in this matchup a year ago and ups and downs against pressure, I am looking for Allen to have a big night here.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: After a slow start against Cleveland and Baltimore defenses that have been stout against the run against everyone to open the year, Edwards-Helaire has bounced back the past two weeks with 31 carries for 202 yards (6.5 YPC). Edwards-Helaire has seven runs of 10 or more yards over that span, second in the league behind Derrick Henry (eight).
The Chiefs have faced back-to-back teams that have begged them to run the football and defenses that have struggled to stop the run outside of the matchup. Just one of the 31 carries that Edwards-Helaire has the past two weeks has come versus a loaded box. The Bills are likely going to do the same as evidence of how they approached this matchup a year ago.
When these teams played in Week 6 a year ago, Edwards-Helaire rushed 26 times for 161 yards, facing eight or more defenders in the box on zero of those carries. He did not play in the AFC Championship game. In that game, Darrel Williams rushed 13 times for 52 yards and a touchdown.
The Bills have opened the year strong against the run, allowing 3.3 YPC to backs (fourth) and they have not allowed a touchdown on the ground to backs. Buffalo has also benefited from that light schedule as mentioned above, facing teams that currently are 22nd, 23rd, 16th, and 29th in EPA via their rushing offense.
One thing to monitor with Edwards-Helaire is that even though he has been efficient on the ground, he has helped his cause with two receiving touchdowns despite not really being used in the passing game. Last week, Edwards-Helaire played a season-low 52% of the offensive snaps and handled a season-low 55.2% of the backfield touches. He has run a pass route on 52.8% of the team dropbacks (15th among backs) and has been targeted on just 8.3% of his routes (82nd). The Chiefs are a team that is hyper-creative inside of the 10-yard line, but when the Chiefs have run a traditional power run at the goal line this season, they have called on Darrel Williams for both of those carries. Without a touchdown, Edwards-Helaire does not have the receiving work to prop up his floor.
That is a lot of words on just one player here, but at the end of things, Edwards-Helaire is a rushing-based RB2.
Bills RBs: Both Buffalo backs have been effective this season, but things continue to trend towards Zack Moss garnering more work than Devin Singletary as we press on. Singletary has started the year strong in the run game, averaging over 5.0 yards per carry in three of the four games, he has shown juice this season. But Singletary also has four fumbles on the year. He has yet to lose any of them, but there is no doubt that is contributing to him playing just 43% and 44% of the snaps the past two weeks.
Moss has clocked a 56% snap rate in each of the past two weeks. Where Moss has a massive edge right now is having a grip on the money touches from this backfield. Even missing Week 1, Moss has registered 10 opportunities inside of the 10-yard line, which is second in the NFL. Singletary has two since Moss has been active.
One reason these backs have co-existed early on is that the Bills have led for 84.2% of their offensive snaps, the highest rate in the league. The next closest team (Carolina) is at 64.6%. The Bills have led for double-digit points for 51.6% of their snaps. The next closest team (Arizona) is at 36.1%. It is probable that will not be the case here.
From a passing game perspective, last week was the first time that Moss ran more pass routes (17) than Singletary (12).
The Chiefs have allowed 4.9 yards per carry (30th) and 16.6 rushing points per game (27th) to backfields to go along with 12.9 receiving points per game (25th) to the position. The Buffalo backs were not a part of the game plan in both matchups between these teams a year ago, but the Chiefs have not stopped anyone on the ground to open the year.
Moss is a touchdown-dependent RB3/FLEX with Singletary as a floor-based RB4 that is dependent on rushing efficiency, but both are better single-game DFS plays.
Tyreek Hill: After back-to-back slower weeks, Hill went bonkers a week ago, catching 11-of-12 targets for 186 yards and three touchdowns. Hill had just three catches for 20 yards when these played in Week 6 last year, but then caught 9-of-11 targets for 172 yards in the AFC Title Game. We know what we have in Hill and his capability to blow open the game and fantasy score as a top-end WR1.
Stefon Diggs: Diggs has yet to break into his ceiling, but he has all of the peripherals we are looking for still. Diggs has target shares of 28.6%, 27.6%, 23.3%, and 33.3% and is the only wide receiver with over 100 air yards in all four games this season. Diggs is ninth in the NFL in receptions (26) and 12th in receiving yards (305). We know big games are inevitably on the horizon with his usage to keep him in play as a WR1 while he has scored double-digit PPR points in 24 straight games, the longest streak for any non-quarterback in the league. In the two games these teams played a year ago, Diggs had games of 4-46-1 (eight targets) and 6-77-0 (11 targets).
Emmanuel Sanders: Sanders has received at least six targets in all four games, turning in back-to-back weeks as the WR5 and WR32. Sanders leads the team in depth of target (17.4 yards) and is 11th in the NFL in air yards. He also leads the team with four end zone targets. The Chiefs have allowed a 52% completion rate on throws over 15 yards downfield (25th) to offer upside on his downfield targets as an upside WR3/FLEX.
Cole Beasley: Beasley has given us two usable weeks as the WR37 (8-60-0) and the WR10 (11-98-0) with 13 targets in each of those games, but then has given us weeks of 4-36-0 (four targets) and 2-16-0 (two targets). Beasley offers minimal touchdown leverage with just one end zone target after just four end zone targets in 2020. We know what we have here as a floor-based FLEX in PPR formats. Beasley had games of 4-45-1 (seven targets) and 7-88-0 (nine targets) when these teams played a year ago,
Mecole Hardman: Hardman has been the WR34 or lower in all four games and his only game higher than WR48 came with a touchdown. He has caught three or fewer passes in all but one game while he has run 113 pass routes on the season to 106 for Demarcus Robinson. Now, we also have the wild card that is the addition of Josh Gordon as a potential impact here among the Kansas City wideout room. Hardman is only a bench stash and single-game DFS dart throw.
Gabriel Davis: After running 34 routes in Week 1, he has run just 13, 13, and 12 routes since, totaling one catch for 23 yards. The Bills have not had to chase the scoreboard at all, so if pressed to do so here that may create some opportunity, but Davis is solely a single-game DFS Hail Mary.
Travis Kelce: Kelce showed us he was capable of having a bad game, catching just 4-of-6 targets for 23 yards last week. It was his first week lower than the TE4 in weekly scoring and his lowest scoring fantasy game since Week 7 of last year. Kelce will look to get back on track against a defense that he torched for games of 5-65-2 (seven targets) and 13-118-2 (15 targets a year ago).
Dawson Knox: Knox is the early leader in the clubhouse to be this year’s Robert Tonyan, catching 15-of-20 targets for 144 yards and four touchdowns to open the year. Knox has now scored at least one touchdown in eight of his past 13 games played. 44.9% of Knox’s fantasy points have come directly from touchdowns, the highest rate of all tight ends in the top-19 of fantasy scoring on the season and trailing Juwan Johnson (59.2%) among the top-40 scorers. After running a route on 44.6% of the dropbacks Week 1, those rates have been 77.8%, 77.1%, and 59.5% since. The Chiefs have opened the year allowing 10.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends (31st) and an 81.8% catch rate (31st) on target to tight ends to provide matchup appeal for Knox even should he fail to find the end zone.
More Week 5 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: